Independent sage: circuit breaker lockdown needed now

[XmasGoose]

I see Independent Sage have said that an immediate circuit breaker lockdown is needed to protect the NHS.

This would involve a total ban on household mixing, all bars, restaurants and indoor venues closing and schools shutting early for Christmas.

Is this needed now to protect the NHS and save lives? Personally I wouldn’t comply with another lockdown.

twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1471160024005324804?s=21

was that not a lockdown?

Tomato, tomato it didn't work as a moth later we had lock down.

@VikingOnTheFridge

The Welsh one probably made Amazon a few quid.

Delayed the rise then cases went up regardless

Not sure why England would get a different result

Circuit breaker is a daft name anyway it’s just a short version of something that takes ages to work

NI also had a pointless 'circuit breaker'

too late to be effective, at that point

[quote Trixiefirecracker]@Delatron letting it rip through the population pushes further variants to mutate.[/quote]
Very possibly creating conditions where the more transmissible variants (I'm thinking Delta here) have a huge advantage by having lockdowns and extreme social distancing hastened the evolution of the more transmissible variants. After all that's pretty much how evolution works, species (in this case covid) evolves to better suit their environment.

It's hard to say circuitbreakers don't work when we haven't really tried one properly (early on the course of a wave).

Once the wave has got going, we find ourselves propelled into a situation where a full lockdown offers a way to reduce the number of deaths that would otherwise be inevitable when health services are stretched to the limit.

If we want to be technical I assume a “circuit breaker” is a short time limited lockdown, whereas a lockdown is indefinite, making November a circuit breaker and January a lockdown otherwise what definitions are you using?

I think short lockdowns don’t work except in the rare situation of your covid free, have a few cases, lockdown early, end up covid free again (with a strict boarder control) obviously. But we are well passed that I need a much more reasoned arguement than we need to do SOMETHING!!! As to why a short lockdown at this stage would do anything than move the peak…so sane numbers in hospital, sane numbers dead but at a different time…end if January rather than end if December

It's hard to say circuitbreakers don't work when we haven't really tried one properly (early on the course of a wave).

Well we've tried at least two and they were pointless.

What makes you think we're 'early enough' in the wave this time?

IIRC, the whole idea of circuit breakers was taken out of context anyway. Originally they were talked about in Aus/NZ to give contract tracers time to catch up, rather than make any meaningful impact on spread.

@firef1y please read this: www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theconversation.com/amp/massive-numbers-of-new-covid-19-infections-not-vaccines-are-the-main-driver-of-new-coronavirus-variants-166882

I lost 2 family members in Jan last year who caught Covid over Xmas and subsequently died - most likely from a primary school aged child who had a very close contact but didn't get tested. It was played down at the time, the infection, the risk etc and I don't blame them. Who wants to think that? Have no idea about Omicron but the fucking thing is rife in schools at the moment. Everything I read is about people not wanting to adapt their behaviour at all. It doesn't matter what Boris the Fuckwit does or doesn't do. He doesn't care. Covid doesn't care. Saying fuck it and carrying on regardless. Well fine. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

@Dghgcotcitc who really knows, but if most of the specialist scientists and virologists are urging it’s a good idea then I presume it’s better to listen to them than a bunch of uneducated mumsnetters ( uneducated in the sense they are not specialists in this field).

If we want to be technical I assume a “circuit breaker” is a short time limited lockdown

Exactly it’s just a time element. All you do is push the wave back by two one or so weeks, as it’s already growing

Last time countries did it we still had furlough so there’s all that too

We haven't tried a circuitbreaker in England.

I'm not arguing for one now - there doesn't seem to be an easy answer to the situation we're in.

Getting boosters and voluntarily avoiding indoor crowded situations seems reasonable, which is what the scientists were saying tonight.

If we are going to have so many thousands of cases, a lot of society will shut down anyway, whether it's mandated or not.

[quote Trixiefirecracker]@Dghgcotcitc who really knows, but if most of the specialist scientists and virologists are urging it’s a good idea then I presume it’s better to listen to them than a bunch of uneducated mumsnetters ( uneducated in the sense they are not specialists in this field).[/quote]
It’s indie Sage. They’re not being listened to as they are not in the right position, as someone like Whitty is.

Whitty is the CMO. He doesn't make the decisions about lockdowns though, the politicians do.

They didn't listen to the scientists about having a circuitbreaker in September 2020.

but if most of the specialist scientists and virologists are urging it’s a good idea then I presume it’s better to listen to them than a bunch of uneducated mumsnetters

I don't know if you've noticed, but Indy Sage have been wrong plenty. They also have an almighty agenda and no responsibility to look at the wider costs and implications of what they're calling for.

I don't pretend to have any specialist knowledge, but observing how well something worked last time and using that to inform decision making does seem to be a sensible step, no?

I don’t think most of the scientists are saying lockdown are they? The who actually doesn’t think lockdown is a long term plan and Chris witty hasn’t yet publicly said he wants one, it’s a quite specific group saying they do. For context no other country has a lockdown for onmicrom yet, Denmark, Norway, South Africa. It is far from clear that “all scientists want one”

We haven't tried a circuitbreaker in England.

But why would the experience of Wales/NI not be relevant?

@TheKeatingFive what exactly has ‘worked well’ so far?

I do agree they have put in measures but not a short lockdown…this article includes scientist, not a mumsnetter who also say that lockdown isn’t likely to be the saviour this time round

Omicron: Will tougher measures stop the spread of Omicron? www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59658486

@herecomesthsun

Whitty is the CMO. He doesn't make the decisions about lockdowns though, the politicians do.

They didn't listen to the scientists about having a circuitbreaker in September 2020.

Circuit breakers are short lockdowns.

I have no idea why people keep clinging to them and going on about something that clearly didn’t work in Wales.

No more school closures. Children have carried the burden of covid long enough.

@Dghgcotcitc

I don’t think most of the scientists are saying lockdown are they? The who actually doesn’t think lockdown is a long term plan and Chris witty hasn’t yet publicly said he wants one, it’s a quite specific group saying they do. For context no other country has a lockdown for onmicrom yet, Denmark, Norway, South Africa. It is far from clear that “all scientists want one”

I agree with this.

No one here can say even if Whitty would suggest one - I’ve certainly heard scientists talk about the fact all you do is put virus on delay to face same problem after the release

@Dghgcotcitc our problem is we are massively over-crowded, (along with being non- compliant).

I’m quite impressed Whitty has the strength of character to have stayed in that job. I’m glad he has but what a horrible couple of years he must have had.

I might be wrong but I don’t think guys like Whitty do these jobs with the expectation of extreme public scrutiny. That must be massively challenging if you are not that way inclined.