So.. South Africa has low vaccination rates and apparently no deaths. We have extremely high vaccination rates and are forecasted to have 75,000 deaths

[Soffit]

Is this subtly acknowledging that the vaccines (specifically in their role as a vaccine across multiple variants of the same virus) have not been worthwhile? Or perhaps the 'younger population' line of reasoning proves that covid will get older populations sooner or later regardless of temporary efforts to stop it through jabs?

The worse case modelling assumes complete vaccine escape I read (and I guess therefore zero immunity in the population). It is also based on the premise it causes as severe disease as Delta...

It’s a very pessimistic model. And as we’ve seen time and time again these worse case models don’t tend to materialise.

Excess deaths have doubled in South Africa. It’s too soon to know what the risks are with omicron. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-08/s-african-weekly-excess-deaths-almost-double-amid-omicron-wave

"Is this subtly acknowledging that the vaccines (specifically in their role as a vaccine across multiple variants of the same virus) have not been worthwhile?"

I presume you are not serious! The vaccine has saved many lives in this country and others.

No deaths in SA? Wht has their rate of excess deaths shot up then?

I really don't understand the news atm. Just from the BBC I've read we won't know until next week how severe the new strain is but there's a prediction of 25 to 75 thousand deaths.

The media is really full on about covid right now. Lots and lots of speculation about further restrictions and the sun is reporting schools may not open in January despite any evidence to back that up!

The modelling which indicates 75000 deaths is based on the assumption that the new variant will be as deadly as delta.
This is the (non peer-reviewed) report this figures are based on: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/omicron_england/report_11_dec_2021.pdf
See page 1.
Early indications from SA suggest this is anything but the case. This being the case, why not wait till we have better data to do the modelling?
After all this, I no longer trust the scientists or the medical establishment. It's complete bullshit.
No wonder people have had enough. Been taken for absolute fools.

I can almost accept the media bullshitting us and sensationalising things - I don't expect any better.
I do expect better from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Who on earth gave the green light on a paper where the underlying data is completely flawed? Madness.

They’ve just run loads of models based on different scenarios. So low vaccine escape versus high vaccine escape. Then the media runs with the worst case model which is highly unlikely to happen.

Someone built a mathamatical model that you dont like and now you dont trust scientists or the medical profession? Ok then.

It's summer in SA, and the population is much younger than in Europe.

Also, the variant was only identified in v late November and it takes about 3 weeks for deaths to start occurring.

Whereas I hope fervently that it is less lethal, we simply don't have the information yet. And if cases sky-rocket, then 'small percentage of a large number is bigger than a larger percentage of a smaller number' kicks in. So it needs to be not just less severe, but substantially less severe to avoid hospitals being unable to carry out non-covid work (safely, or even at all) which is of course tremendously bad.

We should know more in a few weeks.

Right now it is still too soon to say

To be fair, the population of SA is less fat than the UK. Obesity is a massive risk factor.

Yes I’m not sure why this needed to be public knowledge. They surely will lose credibility.

Mind you with the huge range of modelling they’ve done, they may as well have stuck their finger in the air.

There is always a lag between cases and deaths so it's way too early to tell. Most people don't go to hospital immediately after developing symptoms.

South African demographics are also really different from the UK and it's difficult to make a direct comparison.

Yes it’s too early to tell either way.

The lag from symptoms to severe disease is around a week so if large numbers of patients were going to progress to hospitalization or intensive care in SA, they would surely have done so by now.
Also article in Independent: www.independent.co.uk/news/health/omicron-milder-delta-signs-south-africa-b1974206.html
All signs so far suggest it is milder. So what do the scientists do? Run a model based on it being as bad as Delta and feed it to the media.
They are an absolute disgrace.

All the scientists did this?

@Delatron

They’ve just run loads of models based on different scenarios. So low vaccine escape versus high vaccine escape. Then the media runs with the worst case model which is highly unlikely to happen.

this

Median age of UK population: 40.5 years.
www.worldometers.info/world-population/uk-population/

Median age of South African population: 27.6 years.
www.worldometers.info/world-population/south-africa-population/

@Porcupineintherough

All the scientists did this?

Can you actually read and process context @Porcupineintherough? If so it is should be abundantly clear I am referring to scientists at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM).

We have far better sequencing, better testing and many more old folks

I'd suggest you read the original manscript (you did link it after all) @churchofthepoisonmind

For our most optimistic scenario (low immune escape and highly effective booster vaccines), an Omicron epidemic without the introduction of additional control measures may not exceed the peak levels of hospitalisations recorded in January 2021. However, for our most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape and less effective booster vaccines), we project that hospitalisations and potentially deaths will exceed the peak levels recorded in January 2021.

Direct your anger at the media, not the scientists from LSHTM, unless you actually have issues with the methods or interpretations quoted in the paper.

We have a much older and fatter population than SA, so for those reasons alone we have a chunk of population vulnerable to covid.
My understanding is that because the new variant is much more transmissible it's a matter of numbers. So eg, if 10, 000, 000 of us get it and it has a mortality rate of 1% that would be 100, 000 deaths. No vaccine can protect 100% of the population from death or severe disease.

The studies into vaccine efficacy seem to show that doubly vaxed people have some protection from death from omicron but much less protection than from other variants and much less protection than doubly vaxed and boosted people.

Oh actually this makes the population ages easier to see.

population-pyramid.net/en/pp/united-kingdom
population-pyramid.net/en/pp/south-africa

What a stupid question, OP. Try to engage your brain.

How does the death rate being much smaller than it was 18 months ago mean vaccines 'weren't worthwhile'? You don't think saving thousands and thousands of lives and preventing many more people from getting very sick was worthwhile?

I mean, I very VERY much hope that omicron does prove to be milder. That would be amazing, given it seems to be pushing out other variants.

But the age demographics are among the reasons no one's popping champagne corks yet.

Keep your fingers crossed though...