So.. South Africa has low vaccination rates and apparently no deaths. We have extremely high vaccination rates and are forecasted to have 75,000 deaths

[Soffit]

Is this subtly acknowledging that the vaccines (specifically in their role as a vaccine across multiple variants of the same virus) have not been worthwhile? Or perhaps the 'younger population' line of reasoning proves that covid will get older populations sooner or later regardless of temporary efforts to stop it through jabs?

I'm disappointed that the 'scientists' in Sage still seem to be using the same models they used previously, but with different input of the variables regarding vaccine efficacy. Their models have been wildly out so I'm not paying them much attention.

Oh shit, just seen that about excess deaths doubling in South Africa.

Bugger.

South Africa has always had a younger population, it has always had a less obese population (although high levels of hiv positive which impacts on vulnerability too). They had three other serious waves, all that saw huge deaths, hospitalisations and deaths and needed three very strict lockdowns. At the moment cases in hospital are racking below their delta wave (at the same point) with no lockdown and quite light restrictions (masks and a curfew between 12-4) It is early but the signs are positive and the idea that we should completely dismiss evidence coming out of the one country with an established omicron outbreak because it’s not relevant seems ridiculous and Smack of people just wanting a lockdown for the sack of it rather than because the available evidence supports it.

However, for our most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape and less effective booster vaccines), we project that hospitalisations and potentially deaths will exceed the peak levels recorded in January 2021.

My budgie could do that sum

@Porcupineintherough

No deaths in SA? Wht has their rate of excess deaths shot up then?

Dreadful epidemic of people getting hit by buses

@churchofthepoisonmind based on your posts you are now rejecting all scientific and medical opinion because one group of scientists developed a range of models about omicron spread, some of which you disagree with. Its hard to know where to start with that tbh.

@jimmyhill yeah there seems to be a lot of that about recently.

I assume it's because we're older and fatter than SA?
Both of those reasons seem to the the tipping point of more hospitalisations and deaths.

We are older and fatter than SA, they have a high number of immunocompromised people (HIV). It is their summer, but our winter. Our population has greater access to testing and healthcare. And it's a new varient. All factors that mean it's hard to determine exactly what may happen here based on what is happening there.

The only stats I can find suggest South Africa has a higher obesity rate than the UK.

@churchofthepoisonmind

The modelling which indicates 75000 deaths is based on the assumption that the new variant will be as deadly as delta. This is the (non peer-reviewed) report this figures are based on: cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/omicron_england/report_11_dec_2021.pdf See page 1. Early indications from SA suggest this is anything but the case. This being the case, why not wait till we have better data to do the modelling? After all this, I no longer trust the scientists or the medical establishment. It's complete bullshit. No wonder people have had enough. Been taken for absolute fools.

I wish there would be more transparency about this. The projected figures are calculated using a lot of assumptions. They should say we need to be careful blah blah, but what our aim is at this moment is to by some time to better understand the risk so we can make a more informed decision, rather than ah it's going to be awful quick stay at home again and panic etc.

The starting assertion of no omicron deaths in South Africa seems very dubious

They may not be singing about them but their excess death rate seems to be doubled this last week ( Bloomberg)

Getting fed up of people telling others they are asking a stupid question.. So rude on these covid threads these days...

Better to ask than make your mind up on poor information/what Facebook says

@happytoday73

Getting fed up of people telling others they are asking a stupid question.. So rude on these covid threads these days...

Better to ask than make your mind up on poor information/what Facebook says

Absolutely!

Is it just spme kind of engraved buying into the obesity crisis narrative that we assume every other country is less obese than us? Or some kind of colonial narrative? Obesity is an issue in the UK. It is also an issue in SA, which has the higher obesity rate.

@Piggywaspushed

Is it just spme kind of engraved buying into the obesity crisis narrative that we assume every other country is less obese than us? Or some kind of colonial narrative? Obesity is an issue in the UK. It is also an issue in SA, which has the higher obesity rate.

It's sad that many have bought into the narrative that the U.K. is the worst at everything...

I have no idea what's going on. So many in South Africa saying Omicron is mild/nothing to worry about. Dr from there on the news earlier saying everyone (vaccinated and non vaccinated, young and old) recovering in about five days.But what else could be causing a doubling of excess deaths?

I think also people have an idea that countries with younger populations than us are thinner too, because people tend to put on weight as they age. But it's not necessarily so. SA are younger and fatter than us. Japan are older and thinner.

This being the case, why not wait till we have better data to do the modelling? After all this, I no longer trust the scientists or the medical establishment. It's complete bullshit. No wonder people have had enough. Been taken for absolute fools.

Only an absolute fool would expect scientists to be able to accurately predict the future. People have unrealistic expectations about what modelling can achieve.

Sometimes I felt like banging my head against the wall when there was outrage that Imperial used a model for influenza to model COVID 19. We knew nothing about the virus, you can't just magic up a model and data from thin air in a matter of weeks, we only had existing knowledge to work with.

One of the hardest things to predict in models that has one of the biggest impacts on transmission (and, therefore, case numbers, deaths) is human behaviour. If you aren't meeting people, you can't infect them or get infected.

I would suggest that previously, the worse the prediction of a model, the better compliance with restrictions, the more precautions people took, improving the outcome... Please don't jump on that as a conspiracy theory, I am not suggesting it was deliberate to get people to comply. I am just hypothesising that with very little data on how people would behave, the effect of restrictions on transmission may have been underestimated because we didn't really know how many people could WFH, whether people would comply with rules etc. I would also make a guess that despite having that data now, I doubt people will behave in the same way this time around...

What do you think would happen if we waited for better data to model, @churchofthepoisonmind? Shall we wait for hundreds or thousands of people to die so we can accurately predict how many more will die? Or shall we make a best guess now to prevent any unnecessary deaths, then update the model when we have more data?

More normal sized people in SA. Obesity is a major factor in becoming seriously ill with this virus.

@VikingOnTheFridge

I think also people have an idea that countries with younger populations than us are thinner too, because people tend to put on weight as they age. But it's not necessarily so. SA are younger and fatter than us. Japan are older and thinner.

I've just looked on the world obesity index and that puts the uk in 49th fattest position (ranked for men), and SA at 112th. For those who are saying the population is more obese in SA, where are you getting your data from?

We’ve just established the obesity rate in S.Africa is worse than here..

I think what weve established is that different data sources say different things.

@happytoday73

Getting fed up of people telling others they are asking a stupid question.. So rude on these covid threads these days...

Better to ask than make your mind up on poor information/what Facebook says

It's ridiculous, though! How can someone not be embarrassed to ask a question like that? It's a childish and petulant viewpoint.

"Well if it doesn't stop every variant of covid that ever develops then it must have all been a waste of time, wah wah wah!"

What utter disrespect to the scientists and medics that worked so hard so produce and deliver the vaccines that saved literally thousands and thousands of lives. Our grandparents. Our parents. Our friends. I'm getting so sick of how spoiled and ungrateful people are. I can't imagine how people working in the NHS feel.

@MumbleCrumbs

I have no idea what's going on. So many in South Africa saying Omicron is mild/nothing to worry about. Dr from there on the news earlier saying everyone (vaccinated and non vaccinated, young and old) recovering in about five days.But what else could be causing a doubling of excess deaths?

They have an agenda. They're annoyed about the travel bans and they're trying to minimise the impact and downplay it. I'm very surprised by how many people are taking their statements at face value.