Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

finally the English regions.

10 LAs with the highest omicron case counts.

Can confirm… am in Devon and it’s ripping through schools and workplaces.

Does anyone have any idea why East Midlands is so high for Omicron?

Nottingham was one of the first two cases discovered so it’s probably rife there now. Cases in Daventry as I said earlier. Don't know otherwise….

@EducatingArti

Does anyone have any idea why East Midlands is so high for Omicron?

Targeted testing around some early cases: westbridgfordwire.com/university-student-confirmed-as-the-case-of-omicron-variant-found-in-nottingham/. Whether there's more spread or just more found - no idea.

Although no East Midlands LA is in that top ten table.

@MarshaBradyo

I really want to see if I can bring my booster forward, it’s not far off near Christmas

Is it easy?

I’m paranoid if I cancel what I have I’ll lose that

Or do you keep what you have and easy to change

I went to a walk in yesterday. Very quiet. At the time were accepting people who had 2nd dose in June.
Cancelled my appt afterwards.

So glad I did it.

Thanks so much Oh for idea

Just had booster at walk in

Really great, easy, quiet - I tend to be really grateful to person vaccinating

Glad I’ve had it

Thanks boys3 for your tables they are really thorough

Cases down by about 5% today 😄

50,867 compared to 53,945 last week

Admissions have increased slightly but I guess that's following the rise in cases after a period of drops.

Cases down by about 5% today

Plan B works!

(Or rather the school outbreaks that came about after half term have burnt themselves out, just as the ones that came about after septermber)

Doesn't feel like that at the chalkface fred. On the rise again...

@Piggywaspushed

Doesn't feel like that at the chalkface fred. On the rise again...

Agree

Piggy Surely that shows how regional and specific to individual schools the break outs have been, there's no schools at all around me notifying about cases in teachers or students, no missing, it's a total non-event at the moment - in late september / early October it was totally the reverse!

Our school is doubling cases every 3 days. Classes starting to resemble Private school size. Unfortunately lots of staff now off too so loads of collapsed classes all learning whatever we can teach them. Normal school it is not.

Using the graph from Alex Selby and repeating observations of Andrew Lilico:

• The cases in school children have plateaued and are now starting to drop. As noted by sirfred, school outbreaks (outside of London) seem to be burning themselves out. The Torridge trend is an example of that.

However:

• The yellow line (cases in 20-24) is now steadily going up. As we know, every single new wave (Sep 2020, Alpha, Delta, etc) started with rapid growth of cases in young adults. What we are seeing now might be the early indication of Omicron spread.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Piggy Surely that shows how regional and specific to individual schools the break outs have been, there's no schools at all around me notifying about cases in teachers or students, no missing, it's a total non-event at the moment - in late september / early October it was totally the reverse!

Our school doesn't notify anyone fred...

And yes, of course, there are still schools with outbreaks (e.g. London and parts of SE are clearly catching up with the rest of the country) but the national trend seems to suggest we are no longer in the growth territory.

The dynamics for 20-24 age group, however, is remarkably different from the rest of the population and it started in the second half of Nov (which is consistent with the arrival of Omicron).

@sirfredfredgeorge

Cases down by about 5% today

Plan B works!

(Or rather the school outbreaks that came about after half term have burnt themselves out, just as the ones that came about after septermber)

Err…no.

@wintertravel1980

Using the graph from Alex Selby and repeating observations of Andrew Lilico:

• The cases in school children have plateaued and are now starting to drop. As noted by sirfred, school outbreaks (outside of London) seem to be burning themselves out. The Torridge trend is an example of that.

However:

• The yellow line (cases in 20-24) is now steadily going up. As we know, every single new wave (Sep 2020, Alpha, Delta, etc) started with rapid growth of cases in young adults. What we are seeing now might be the early indication of Omicron spread.

Interesting to see on chart - each age group

The yellow line (cases in 20-24) is now steadily going up. As we know, every single new wave (Sep 2020, Alpha, Delta, etc) started with rapid growth of cases in young adults. What we are seeing now might be the early indication of Omicron spread

Or simply vaccine waning in the group against a background of more indoor mixing now we're in Christmas party season - the reason I think this in the data more than omicron, is that omicron would be highly regional as well as in the age group - so we'd see regional differences as well as it being led by the nightclubbers

Of course vaccine passports for the night clubs will soon "solve" that...

oh and of course, the numbers are too large against the reported numbers for omicron or even S drop outs unless there was something surprisingly un-random about sequenced cases - perhaps the age group exclusively do LFT's and don't confirm, or always end up at the wrong lab.

Hospitalisations in South Africa hardly look concerning?

manolantern Has anyone published the graph of inpatients vs admissions though, one of the supposed features of this wave in SA is the much lower severity and therefore more incidental admissions.

Currently Guateng has 2300 patients in hospital, compared with 1052 on the 1st of November - ie a much less alarming growth than looking at admissions, a similar graph for "number in hospital in SA" is available from nicd at www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-report-National-20211208.pdf

As you can see, quite a bit less scary - of course there's still lots of unknowns about why etc.