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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

999 replies

JanglyBeads · 05/12/2021 17:21

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
232
boys3 · 08/12/2021 16:15

spec date graphic for England

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
sirfredfredgeorge · 08/12/2021 16:19

There's Dutch data on the motivations behind passports, the difference between (vaccination only) and (vaccination or test) - the difference between 2g and 3g in Dutch terms as recovered is the same as vaccination for them is here:

www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/11/the-pros-and-cons-of-2g-versus-3g-what-the-experts-say/ is a popular write up.

The spread in nightclubs is from vaccinated (as they're not tested on going in, so could have it), it's the higher risk of the unvaccinated catching it (and their severity) that is the justification for excluding them.

Imagine a country with 1% covid prevalence among the unvaccinated, and because the vaccine was 90% at preventing infection, 0.1% of he vaccinated.
So if 1000 people at a venue, 900 are vaccinated, 100 test and get a negative test. The test is only 80% effective, so there's 0.2 of a person there who's positive and unvaccinated, and 0.9 vaccinated and positive - so even with vaccine efficacy way above what we have today, you're still much more likely to have a vaccinated positive person there than an unvaccinated positive (this is the exact same argument about why hospitals have more vaccinated)

So now, what happens at the venue, imagine the positive person infects everyone they meet, other than the vaccine produces that same 90% reduction. All 100 (or 99) unvaccinated people are now infected, but the vaccine has prevented 90% of the vaccinated from getting infected, so it's only 90 of those, and of course they'll be less seriously ill from the vaccine.

Of course, the real motivation for vaccine passports is coercion on getting a vaccine, but if you are going to have a passport, it's the unvaccinated (and unrecovered) that you want to keep out because they are more likely to be infected.

Vaccine breakthrough of course changes all that, because now the numbers who can be infected in the vaccinated group is higher so you don't get the benefits, there you may well be getting more protection from testing everyone and trying to exclude the case entirely.

CrabbyCat · 08/12/2021 16:45

The original research on the unvaccinated driving the epidemic in Germany is here www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.24.21266831v1.full.pdf , it's in English.

CrabbyCat · 08/12/2021 17:14

The abstract is:

Vaccines are the most powerful pharmaceutical tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. While the majority (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. At the time, it (i) remains elusive how significant this contribution is and (ii) whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may stop the amplification of the ongoing crisis. Here, we estimate that about 67%–76% of all new infections are caused by unvaccinated individuals, implying that only 24%–33% are caused by the vaccinated. Furthermore, we estimate 38%–51% of new infections to be caused by unvaccinated individuals infecting other unvaccinated individuals. In total, unvaccinated individuals are expected to be involved in 8–9 of 10 new infections. We further show that decreasing the transmissibility of the unvaccinated by, e. g. targeted NPIs, causes a steeper decrease in the effective reproduction number R than decreasing the transmissibility of vaccinated individuals, potentially leading to temporary epidemic control. Furthermore, reducing contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals serves to decrease R in a similar manner as increasing vaccine uptake. Taken together, our results contribute to the public discourse regarding policy changes in pandemic response and highlight the importance of combined measures, such as vaccination campaigns and contact reduction, to achieve epidemic control and preventing an overload of public health systems.

It's obviously pre-Omicron though.

PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets · 08/12/2021 18:26

Anyone watching Boris?? Not sure why he's "paying tribute" to someone who thought it was funny to break lock-down rules last christmas. How very insulting to anyone who lost a loved one or was really ill with covid.
I daren't say what I think of him here, but there is a whole new circle for him to occupy.

herecomesthsun · 08/12/2021 19:01

I am finding the signer for the deaf quite distracting. He has a rather expressive face (good for the job) but a little reminiscent of a young Rowan Atkinson. Not data I know.

boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:45

Latest seven day rates for England looking back over the past four weeks.

Ordered a little differently to usual

First two columns show the relative rank - high to low - for cases per 100,000 w/e 14th November and then for the most recent week ; w/e 5th December. 315 councils for which data is reported.

Then council name and region ; abbreviated hence IL = Inner London; WM = West Midlands and so on.

cases per 100,000 for each of the past four week; plus a high-low column graph

the % change latest week vs previous week with the tables sorted highest to lowest on this column

then two columns for actual cases as reported this time last week for Monday and Tuesday, and as reported today for the current week so far; followed by the % change

boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:48

Councils 1-20

Worth noting that whilst Newham has one of the highest week on week increases; it actual most recent seven day rate still puts it in the lowest 20% of council rates in England.

In contrast South Northamptonshire has both one of the highest percentage increases and one of the highest current 7 day rates per 100,000

Copeland
Greenwich
Newham
Lewisham
Harborough
Islington
Daventry
Southwark
Camden
West Devon
Stafford
South Northamptonshire
Barking and Dagenham
Boston
Ipswich
South Hams
Lambeth
Hackney & Ciy of London
South Bucks
Sutton
Eden

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:50

21-40

Eden
East Lindsey
Reigate and Banstead
Rugby
Adur
West Lindsey
Halton
Worthing
Vale of White Horse
Croydon
Lincoln
Hart
Tower Hamlets
Norwich
Folkestone and Hythe
Blaby
Redbridge
Harlow
North West Leicestershire
Dartford

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:51

41-60

Broxtowe
Bury
Portsmouth
Herefordshire, County of
Gloucester
Uttlesford
Milton Keynes
Slough
Derby
North Norfolk
Gosport
South Lakeland
Chiltern
Bromley
Hammersmith and Fulham
Bexley
Central Bedfordshire
Nottingham
Hartlepool
Maidstone

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:52

61-80

Chelmsford
Stroud
Huntingdonshire
South Gloucestershire
Waltham Forest
Dacorum
Westminster
Liverpool
Tewkesbury
South Oxfordshire
South Cambridgeshire
Brighton and Hove
North Lincolnshire
Colchester
Exeter
Enfield
Bedford
Cheshire East
Barnet
Castle Point

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:53

81 to 100

Southend-on-Sea
North East Lincolnshire
York
Plymouth
Cambridge
East Cambridgeshire
Stoke-on-Trent
Stockport
Rochford
Lancaster
Havering
Lewes
Forest of Dean
Basingstoke and Deane
Oxford
Brentwood
Preston
Bradford
Bath and North East Somerset
Trafford

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:54

101 to 120

Babergh
Canterbury
Windsor and Maidenhead
Havant
St Albans
Amber Valley
Carlisle
East Devon
Bristol, City of
Wyre Forest
Epsom and Ewell
Thurrock
Three Rivers
Braintree
South Norfolk
Chichester
South Holland
Bracknell Forest
Chorley
North Somerset

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:56

121 to 140 the last few start the quite lengthy list of Councils with a week on week increase, but one that is below the overall England increase.

West Berkshire
Cannock Chase
Stockton-on-Tees
Wolverhampton
Ealing
Tamworth
Swale
Haringey
Cherwell
Fareham
Ashford
Great Yarmouth
Walsall
Cheshire West and Chester
Redditch
Cotswold
East Northamptonshire
Broadland
Epping Forest
Brent

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
JanglyBeads · 08/12/2021 19:56

Daventry neighbours S Northants and has an omicron outbreak.

OP posts:
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:56

141 to 160

Somerset West and Taunton
North East Derbyshire
Leeds
Gravesham
Barnsley
Tameside
Tonbridge and Malling
Warrington
Manchester
Medway
Bromsgrove
Breckland
North Kesteven
Stratford-on-Avon
Merton
Wandsworth
Aylesbury Vale
Harrow
Solihull
Wigan

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:57

161 to 180

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly
Mid Suffolk
Rochdale
West Oxfordshire
Basildon
Northampton
Peterborough
Leicester
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Derbyshire Dales
Sedgemoor
Reading
Dover
Doncaster
Isle of Wight
Blackburn with Darwen
Calderdale
Sheffield
Coventry
Fenland

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:58

181 to 200

Barrow-in-Furness
Tendring
Ashfield
Hillingdon
Warwick
Ribble Valley
Kingston upon Thames
Thanet
East Staffordshire
Wychavon
East Suffolk
Woking
Mansfield
South Derbyshire
Southampton
Sandwell
Tunbridge Wells
Rushcliffe
Erewash
Shropshire

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 19:59

201 to 220

Luton
Runnymede
Eastleigh
Torbay
Birmingham
Kingston upon Hull, City of
Sefton
Northumberland
New Forest
Crawley
Hastings
Watford
Sevenoaks
Dudley
Gedling
Middlesbrough
Winchester
Wirral
Newcastle-under-Lyme
South Staffordshire

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:00

221 to 240

St. Helens
Horsham
Teignbridge
Welwyn Hatfield
Bolton
Arun
Knowsley
Newark and Sherwood
Worcester
Oldham
Oadby and Wigston
Newcastle upon Tyne
Redcar and Cleveland
Mendip
Mole Valley
Craven
Rother
Rotherham
Darlington
Rushmoor

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:02

241 to 260 which concludes all those councils with a week on week increase.

Wealden
Test Valley
Richmond upon Thames
Waverley
County Durham
South Kesteven
Lichfield
North Tyneside
Hounslow
Hertsmere
West Suffolk
West Lancashire
Kirklees
East Hampshire
Salford
Bolsover
Swindon
Kensington and Chelsea
Dorset
Wakefield

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:03

261 to 280

East Riding of Yorkshire
Richmondshire
Surrey Heath
Tandridge
Telford and Wrekin
Staffordshire Moorlands
Elmbridge
Malvern Hills
Wiltshire
North Devon
Wellingborough
Hinckley and Bosworth
Broxbourne
Selby
South Ribble
Kettering
North Hertfordshire
Wokingham
South Tyneside
Mid Sussex

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:05

281 to 300 which includesGuildford still 45th highest by rate, but with a week on week decline; tempered by a slight start of week increase.

Cheltenham
Guildford
Wycombe
Rossendale
Burnley
Pendle
Bassetlaw
Eastbourne
Nuneaton and Bedworth
East Hertfordshire
High Peak
Chesterfield
Hyndburn
Wyre
Harrogate
Scarborough
Corby
North Warwickshire
King's Lynn and West Norfolk
Charnwood

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:07

and finally 301 to 315 which includes Torridge which still has the highest rate in England, but has at least dipped below the 1000 per 100,000 mark.

Gateshead
Stevenage
Rutland
South Somerset
Spelthorne
Melton
Sunderland
Maldon
Fylde
Torridge
Hambleton
Allerdale
Mid Devon
Blackpool
Ryedale

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 08/12/2021 20:10

then one of the English counties their tanking is 1-26.

Lincolnshire biggest week on week increase, but its rate puts it 19th lowest of the 26 counties.

Highest rate in Devon, marginally above Surrey though both had a single digit percentage increase, only just in Devon's case.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
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