Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I haven't seen such a graph, sirfredfredgeorge. Though just remembered there's this South Africa dashboard:

mediahack.co.za/datastories/coronavirus/dashboard/

Or rather the school outbreaks that came about after half term have burnt themselves out, just as the ones that came about after septermber

They really haven't burnt themselves out. The best that could be said is: slowing in some areas. They are still incredibly high. Graphs are from UKHSA report from today.

The 7-day trend of cases is up. You can't look at daily cases, it's the trend that matters every time.

Positive news from SA that it does look to be significantly less virulent:

twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469003220534149123

[quote manolantern]Positive news from SA that it does look to be significantly less virulent:

twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469003220534149123[/quote]
You have linked to modelling of a new and unknown variant carried out by an engineering researcher. Does he know anything about epidemiology?

How does that align with the hospitalisation chart that shows a steep rise in South Africa ?

And at the end of the day it number of cases * probability of case leading to hospitalisation that matters

So something overall more mild could overwhelm hospitals if the number of cases goes up enough

Don't cherry pick data/reports

So is Omicron believed to be milder in general or milder because people are vaccinated and experiencing less severe symptoms? Any news on unvaccinated over 60s for example?

lonelyplanet

Ah, ooops! Didn't notice he's an engineer.

Still, I would trust him if he had a bridge to sell me :).

Currently Guateng has 2300 patients in hospital, compared with 1052 on the 1st of November - ie a much less alarming growth than looking at admissions

Fred, I find that increase quite alarming. That's more than a doubling and cases may only just be starting to show a rise in hospitalisations. There may also be a lag at the end of the graph you've posted. On the link you have included it says: "The number of reported admissions may change day-to-day as enrolled facilities back-capture historic data".

@manolantern

lonelyplanet

Ah, ooops! Didn't notice he's an engineer.

Still, I would trust him if he had a bridge to sell me :).

🤣

@manolantern

lonelyplanet

Ah, ooops! Didn't notice he's an engineer.

Still, I would trust him if he had a bridge to sell me :).

This acceptable

"The pattern of milder disease in Pretoria is corroborated by data for the whole of Gauteng province. Eight per cent of Covid-positive hospital patients are being treated in intensive care units, down from 23 per cent throughout the Delta wave. And just 2 per cent are on ventilators, down from 11 per cent."

www.ft.com/content/d315be08-cda0-462b-85ec-811290ad488e

On the link you have included it says: "The number of reported admissions may change day-to-day as enrolled facilities back-capture historic data"

That applies to all hospital data graph any of these people are using, the NICD are the source of it.

And yes, it might be alarming, but it's way less that the graph manolantern showed of admissions, I'm saying the graph of admissions alone is not all the data that should be looked at, because admissions are different in omicron (almost certainly because there's more re-infections and like other respiratory infections re-infections are less serious)

You have linked to modelling of a new and unknown variant carried out by an engineering researcher. Does he know anything about epidemiology?

The two most accurate models for the Delta wave I have seen were produced by (i) an economist - Andrew Lilico and (ii) a mathematician - James Ward. Lilico is also known for projecting 85,000 deaths during the winter 2020/21 wave back in May 2020.

Both Lilico and Ward underestimated the speed of waning so their models for Nov-Dec turned out over-optimistic. However, they were still closer to reality than most projections produced by epidemiologists (who, ironically, were even more over-optimistic in their most recent models).

today's England spec date graph. Tuesday looks a bit odd.

I'm uneasy about that model by the engineer. The level of confidence with which he claims there's definitely no need for further restrictions seems out of kilter with most other people I trust, who are all saying there's a huge amount of uncertainty. Admissions are going up a bit faster that cases, but the lag between cases and admissions is likely to vary on an individual level, so slower rising admissions at the very start of a new wave is what you'd expect. The uncertain lag makes it just impossible to be sure where things will end up. Unless you were sure to start with what you wanted to find and looking for the data to support it

That should have said admissions (in SA) are going up a bit slower than cases

Thanks for the spec date analysis, boys3. I am wondering if there is a reporting delay and we might see more Tues cases reported tomorrow.

Shouldn't read too much into one day's data, but if people did change behaviour when they heard about Omicron, we'd expect to see that feeding through into case rates quite soon wouldn't we?

A very clear explanation on how a new variant may appear milder even with no change in underlying virulence:
mobile.twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1468988174693289994

Just what I came here to post @lonelyplanet, thanks for saving me the work! I knew scientists had kept mentioning effect of reinfections but hadn’t understood it properly until I saw that sketch.

@Firefliess

Shouldn't read too much into one day's data, but if people did change behaviour when they heard about Omicron, we'd expect to see that feeding through into case rates quite soon wouldn't we?

A representative of the hospitality sector on the radio said people had started cancelling bookings a couple of weeks ago.

Read this

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/08/omicron-cases-could-exceed-1m-by-month-end-sajid-javid

The problem the government have with this million cases a day is that people remember the 100k cases a day that was also predicted (plus the thousands of admissions per day) and no longer trust what we are being told.

Em but if you are told that if we don't do something x could happen , so you do something you can't say "but x didn't happen "