Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Does London still have the biggest proportion of unvaccinated?

MRex I think it shows we are all better not casting aspersions on people who haven't had a vaccination in the time frame we think they ought to have had!
Where I am there has been a steady and fairly comprehensive roll out according to clinical need. Therefore there are the average people like me in lower 5Os age range who essentially waited in the queue are sitting here unboosted. We have had a lower Covid prevalence in my area and students and a few relatives in their 30s and 40s in hotspots were prioritised in the first round of vaccination and so have in turn been able to book boosters earlier. Probably overall a good policy.

I've posted the overall figures, the reasoning behind boosting those in their 20s early, and apologised that people obviously have some different experiences hidden by the regional overall stats. I dislike the rude dramatics of bouncing in with "casting aspersions", it's unnecessary and factually incorrect when I've at no point said anyone is doing the wrong thing.

You did apologise and I thank you for it.
Casting aspersions is my old timer turn if phrase. Sorry you find it dramatic.

I'm still somewhat unwell, so I'm not up for the angry exchanges starting up again and I'll step away from the covid board for a few weeks or months. Have a good Christmas and New Year all.

@MRex

I'm still somewhat unwell, so I'm not up for the angry exchanges starting up again and I'll step away from the covid board for a few weeks or months. Have a good Christmas and New Year all.

Sorry to see you go @MRex. I enjoy reading your balanced opinions on the many threads here. Hope you feel better soon, and have a Good Christmas, and a better New Year x

Sorry to hear you're still unwell MRex, all the best to you and your family for the holiday season.

I hope you're better soon.💐

MRex I hope you feel better soon and have a pleasant and peaceful Christmas.

MRex hope you are feeling better soon, and thanks for the info in why boosting young adults is important as it made me get on and book In my DS for his. (anecdotal info - 10min wait to access booking system. Jab booked for Sunday )

News saying today that 18+ who are only 2 months from dose 2 can now get a booster (well, not in my area they can't, but good for overall uptake I guess)

I'm early 30s and got my booster on Friday at a walk in in London. My mother is early 60s and lives in the Midlands and had hers yesterday. She booked ages ago but had a long wait in her area for an appointment. DH's parents are a similar age in the NW and had their boosters about 3-4 weeks ago - it seems to vary a lot by by area!

Anyone know where these weird figures are coming from? Tory MP just said on Sky there are 200k omicron alone cases today in UK.

PP on a different thread said Jenny Harries said 400k today??? Have googled but can’t find anything that says that.

Are they extrapolating from the positivity rates?

@BanditoShipman

Anyone know where these weird figures are coming from? Tory MP just said on Sky there are 200k omicron alone cases today in UK.

PP on a different thread said Jenny Harries said 400k today??? Have googled but can’t find anything that says that.

Are they extrapolating from the positivity rates?

I'm also wondering this. Yesterday, there were around 60,000 new COVID cases in the uk. i read about a delay in test results coming through.

@MRex I am very sorry you are leaving the thread. I mainly lurk but have found your clear, factual and data based contributions both invaluable and reassuring. I hope you are feeling better soon and feel able to return to the thread and just ignore the unnecessarily personal attacks that don’t belong on a data thread.

This is not strictly stats related but I am more likely to get a sensible answer on this thread. A friend keeps posting on facebook that the vaccines have not been approved for public use and are still experimental and that over 1,600 people have died in the UK from having a vaccine. I am sure have seen reports that these statements are not true but can someone cleverer than me please point me to any relevant published reports on these issues either to prove or dissprove these allegations please. TIA.

I do think the over 40s and maybe early 50s have been 'squeezed' a bit in this booster rollout - I have been on the website 'early' booking for jabs 1,2 and now 3 before it's officially been opened, and I'm only just boostered. I managed to bring mine forwards by 10 days when the drop from 6 months to 3 months gap was announced otherwise I'd be going on Friday.

Like a lot of government decisions, it is a balance between the risks e.g. is a 2 x pfizer with 4 months gap 20 year old who is socially active, more at risk than a 2 x AZ with 5-6 months gap mostly careful 40 year old. Then there's also the IT complexity required to actually prioritise appointments appropriately.

I think omicron has changed a mostly orderly process to a bit of a scrum, and some people have not really had chance to book in for their boosters who probably should have had more priority.

The 200,000 Omicron cases a day was being bandied by Javid a couple of days ago and causing much bemusement - not least because he also stated that Omicron was 20% of total cases, which would have meant 1m people catching it in one day, and with a doubling of 2 days the entire county having it within about a week. From discussions on Twitter it emerged that he had in fact for this figure from some modelling paper and it wasn't actual reported or measured data at all.

The ONS study, React study and Zoe all suggest that approximately half of all infections are reported cases. I can't see how that would have changed dramatically in recent days - it might have fallen a bit due to test shortages or milder symptoms from Omicron being missed, but not to that order of magnitude.

Unfortunately the 200k figure was picked up in French media and they are now considering travel restrictions with the UK.

Press conference at 5 today it seems. Also reported today that there are 14 people in hospital with Omicron, which seems very low to me - is that only fully sequenced cases maybe?

@ConcernedAuntie

This is not strictly stats related but I am more likely to get a sensible answer on this thread. A friend keeps posting on facebook that the vaccines have not been approved for public use and are still experimental and that over 1,600 people have died in the UK from having a vaccine. I am sure have seen reports that these statements are not true but can someone cleverer than me please point me to any relevant published reports on these issues either to prove or dissprove these allegations please. TIA.

blog.ons.gov.uk/2021/10/04/how-many-people-have-died-as-a-result-of-a-covid-19-vaccine/amp/

There are over 1500 people who died close to when they had a vaccine. However the vast majority did not die because of the vaccine, but to be sure if this there needs to be through investigation. I think the actual number is less than 10

The only reason anyone could think it's not been through the necessary trials is if they are reading conspiracy theories ( lies ) snd believe them. So facts and links won't help

As far as I know from medical friends, all hospital testing for Covid goes off for sequencing, but I don't know what the turn round times are.

@Firefliess

The 200,000 Omicron cases a day was being bandied by Javid a couple of days ago and causing much bemusement - not least because he also stated that Omicron was 20% of total cases, which would have meant 1m people catching it in one day, and with a doubling of 2 days the entire county having it within about a week. From discussions on Twitter it emerged that he had in fact for this figure from some modelling paper and it wasn't actual reported or measured data at all.

The ONS study, React study and Zoe all suggest that approximately half of all infections are reported cases. I can't see how that would have changed dramatically in recent days - it might have fallen a bit due to test shortages or milder symptoms from Omicron being missed, but not to that order of magnitude.

Unfortunately the 200k figure was picked up in French media and they are now considering travel restrictions with the UK.

So it’s not correct? But used as basis by Harries today…

@ConcernedAuntie

This is not strictly stats related but I am more likely to get a sensible answer on this thread. A friend keeps posting on facebook that the vaccines have not been approved for public use and are still experimental and that over 1,600 people have died in the UK from having a vaccine. I am sure have seen reports that these statements are not true but can someone cleverer than me please point me to any relevant published reports on these issues either to prove or dissprove these allegations please. TIA.

Another way of looking at it is most people drink tea during the last week of their life. It doesn't mean the tea killed them

@Marsha 200,000 Omicron cases a day is definitely wrong. But I can't see Jenny Harris quoting that number. She's saying that they will very soon be very high, and suggests 2000 hospital admissions a day could happen.