Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

The regional age profile for cases reported today - first day of reporting - for yesterday's spec date.

12.8% of the cases reported so far in England in the 25-29 age group although no English region outside London was actually above that rate. Figure in London 21.3%; next highest North West at 11.4%.

@Itisasecret

I was at a mass vaccination centre this weekend. Most of the people getting their jabs were easy 50+ many a lot older. It’s not been easy to get boosted everywhere. Lots of vulnerable and 40+ are only just starting to trickle through in some areas.

I'm in the north east, 40+ and massively struggling to get my booster.

Booked in for January originally 6 months from my last jab.

I've been turned away from walk in clinics 4 times in the last 4 days as they are completely overwhelmed.

Website crashed so couldn't rebook at first but have now managed to get an appointment for Thursday, lots of people around here in the same position.

Boys, do you mind me asking a question about that regional age chart?

North East for example. High percentage in 5-9 and up to 14 years. Then in the 35 to 50 ages. Is that primary school and early secondary school children and then their parents?
Asking as that seems what is happening here in regards children then parents. Are we likely to see the NE figures rise in later groups going into and after Christmas?

We have the issue down here in the SW. it’s massively presumptuous to suggest that everyone 40+ or vulnerable is boosted and if they aren’t, that’s choice. That’s far from reality in many areas of the country. The booster system is chaos down here and it is where my family are from (different area).

The presser means nothing, Boris’ promises mean nothing. Many people in the initial groups cannot get a jab. That’s the reality which I fear will bite us hard.

Statistics rather than perception are the reality. 24m have had a booster, the original groups 1-9 were about 31m, so over 77% already boosted, and remember there are some not jabbed or waiting for various reasons. Big vaccination centres get through a lot of people quickly, can be as easily used by less vulnerable 40-50 as younger people, and stopping the spread in 20-30yo is also important.

@MRex

Statistics rather than perception are the reality. 24m have had a booster, the original groups 1-9 were about 31m, so over 77% already boosted, and remember there are some not jabbed or waiting for various reasons. Big vaccination centres get through a lot of people quickly, can be as easily used by less vulnerable 40-50 as younger people, and stopping the spread in 20-30yo is also important.

That’s not what you said was it? You said that the vulnerable and over 40s had been jabbed unless they are choosing to wait.

That’s just not true, particularly in the 40+ cohort where it can be virtually impossible to get a jab in some areas.

This extends the London case rate by age band using the gender files to get to the very latest specimen. Recognising that Monday very complete; a fair bit to add to Sunday and Saturday with maybe another 10% to go. So rates that are still rising into those very latest spec dates tell their own story.

The column is the overall London rate per 100,000; then with this the four age bands with the highest rates to Sunday (just a two day lag).

The 10-14s are still around the 1,000 per 100,000 mark but largely flat. Whereas the upward trajectory for the others all three 20-34 age bands is obvious.

@Regulus

My MAT attendance reports supports Piggy, however that's not why I'm posting.

I would like to know the data behind the rise in number of posts on this thread in comparison with the rise in covid cases, I bet MN could provide it (well the posts per day) I have found the amount of posts I need to read each day an accurate barometer of the state of covid.

I read today a statistician reposted this on perceptions of risk, which ties In with this very thing I think.

On this thread there are many hedgehogs, people who look at the big picture consistently and regularly . We see them consistently post through low risk and high

Then there are people like me who are foxes , we see risk and we scramble to understand it with a flurry of information, increasing the number of posts by looking left and right all the time trying to make sense of things

www.bbc.co.uk/ideas/videos/are-you-a-hedgehog-or-a-fox/p07f9xl9

I think it’s great we have both of the above

I'm 50s and due a booster this week. If I do t catch covid first.
I've been as quick as the system has allowed me to be.

Areas of lower uptake were far easier to get an initial Vaccination in for a younger age cohort.

@Itisasecret

We have the issue down here in the SW. it’s massively presumptuous to suggest that everyone 40+ or vulnerable is boosted and if they aren’t, that’s choice. That’s far from reality in many areas of the country. The booster system is chaos down here and it is where my family are from (different area).

The presser means nothing, Boris’ promises mean nothing. Many people in the initial groups cannot get a jab. That’s the reality which I fear will bite us hard.

I think this is an issue in a number of areas. Where I am we have amongst the absolute highest take up rates in the country for 1st / 2nd dose in every age band - obviously only applies to 1st dose for U18s. However for boosters the oldest few groups are up there in the very highest take up in the country but as we head through the lower 70s down into the 50s we are around median or lower. This is not because of any booster reluctance, but due to the roll out being less.......not quite sure what the right word is; perhaps committed - in terms of locations and resources. I have no doubt in the new year the local booster take up in those lagging age bands will be in the top 5% in England but its not there at the moment.

We are really quite rural which may have something to do with it, so perhaps not dissimilar to several parts of the SW in that respect?

@IsThisIt2021

Boys, do you mind me asking a question about that regional age chart?

North East for example. High percentage in 5-9 and up to 14 years. Then in the 35 to 50 ages. Is that primary school and early secondary school children and then their parents?
Asking as that seems what is happening here in regards children then parents. Are we likely to see the NE figures rise in later groups going into and after Christmas?

Yes; although we've seen that sort of profile pretty much once schools were back for a few weeks. This is the picture back in November in England. Dip after half-term in those more typical parental age groups, then growth again, whilst the oldest age groups continued to decline in general.

This was of course before Omicron.

continuing with London. These are the remaining age groups above teh overall London rate.

teh ---- the

Where I live the 40 somethings who were quickest off the mark with first doses booking as quickly as allowed have not yet had boosters. No walk ins in the entire county and bookings being taken from January. Many 50+ booked in for January too. We have 20% of adults boosted, which is half the national average. The national statistics do not tell the whole story at local level. Accelerating boosters is, I think, overall a good thing, but it has come at a price for people in their 40s and 50s in my area who were mostly given AZ initially and are at much higher risk of hospital admission than the 20 somethings m

Yes I worry about this. I know not even all people who are housebound have had their boosters yet.

@Regulus

My MAT attendance reports supports Piggy, however that's not why I'm posting.

I would like to know the data behind the rise in number of posts on this thread in comparison with the rise in covid cases, I bet MN could provide it (well the posts per day) I have found the amount of posts I need to read each day an accurate barometer of the state of covid.

@Regulus not quite to the level you want but just in terms of thread duration since end Feb and number of cases by spec date - could make an argument for reporting date :) - for the thread duration. No day is counted twice. Bottom right quadrant is short thread duration and high average daily cases.

the current thread of course should not really be included on the graph, or have a cases per day figure calculated given reporting lag. Potentially this thread could pip the thread that started 11th June which has the current highest cases per thread day.

explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak

Pupil absence

Coronavirus (COVID-19) related pupil absence in all state-funded schools was 2.9% on 9 Dec, up from 2.6% on 25 Nov.
Among pupils absent for COVID-19 reasons, the main reasons for absence on 9 Dec were: pupils with a confirmed case of COVID-19 (1.3%), and pupils with a suspected case of COVID-19 (1.1%).

Workforce absence

We estimate that 2.4% of teachers and school leaders in open state-funded schools were absent due to COVID-19 reasons on 9 Dec, up from 2.0% on 25 Nov.
We estimate that 2.1% of teaching assistants and other staff in open state-funded schools were absent due to COVID-19 reasons on 9 Dec, up from 1.9% on 25 Nov.

That’s a lot of children and a lot of staff. But as Geoff Barton of the ASCL pointed out on multiple media outlets yesterday, it’s very patchy across schools. One school might be hard hit, yet another nearby hardly hit at all. It’s characteristic of how the virus spreads.
One of the problems arising from this is that with regard to exam years, it distinctly unlevels any level playing field nationally.
Complacency among those not hard hit shows little regard for others.

@Regulus - that reminds me of the thread with an article discussing the link between swearing and school closures announcements: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4259313-Swearing-spiked-on-Mumsnet-after-every-announcement-of-a-school-closure#prettyPhoto

Does anyone know once you have Omicron does that give you immunity.

Presumably by the end of January very few would have escaped having Covid at all and some would have had it twice.

Do we think isolation will be canned after Christmas (I think it aids numbers before the risk of isolating over Christmas is restricting behaviour).

And how much longer can we test - we cant have the capacity to cope with these numbers and if isolation goes.....

@Quartz2208

Does anyone know once you have Omicron does that give you immunity.

Presumably by the end of January very few would have escaped having Covid at all and some would have had it twice.

Do we think isolation will be canned after Christmas (I think it aids numbers before the risk of isolating over Christmas is restricting behaviour).

And how much longer can we test - we cant have the capacity to cope with these numbers and if isolation goes.....

This preprint considers your first question. Indications are that the answer is yes, some will for a period but it's not clear. Children less likely to seroconvert, quite a bit less, this suggested 37%. There is much to go on at the moment for previous covid variants and nothing for Omicron.

Link!
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.17.21265121v1

@Firefliess

Where I live the 40 somethings who were quickest off the mark with first doses booking as quickly as allowed have not yet had boosters. No walk ins in the entire county and bookings being taken from January. Many 50+ booked in for January too. We have 20% of adults boosted, which is half the national average. The national statistics do not tell the whole story at local level. Accelerating boosters is, I think, overall a good thing, but it has come at a price for people in their 40s and 50s in my area who were mostly given AZ initially and are at much higher risk of hospital admission than the 20 somethings m

I think the risk assessment is more complex than age = hospital. The risk for double jabbed in their 40s being hospitalised is not significantly greater than for those in their 20s according to this, because the risk dropped with mass vaccination: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals. The risk of catching covid for someone in their 20s is very high though, that's clear in the age-stratified cases, Omicron is circulating among that age group. Total number of hospitalised = number infected * % very unwell.

I'm sorry if people can't book jabs, perhaps London and SE has been prioritised and that's why everyone has been done round here. The government data site has 24m showing as boosted and heatmaps show most regions with about 50% coverage of 40s now and very high coverage 50+, overall it's 41% of over 12s boosted so really high numbers. I'm not sure how those figures are correct if some of you are reporting their regions have such low numbers and no availability.