Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

If I had kids in school I'd be taking them out now to save what little there will be of Christmas - 10 days.

Many threads on this but no chance

The CMO(s?) briefed politicians today

www.thesun.co.uk/health/news-health/17036536/hospitals-overwhelmed-weeks-could-close/

R4 had reports of MPs coming out of the meeting white-faced, and of some possibly changing their minds about their votes tonight.

boys if I ply you with what are your real thoughts about monday I won't hold you to it
To me it looks really worrying.

Am I understanding the SA and Denmark data correctly that they had short, sharp peaks with omicron? How far ahead of us are they?

Piggy I don't blame them, do you? How much about the Tudors or Od-Bow lakes will you learn in 2 days?!

England NHS regions admissions and hospitalisations per 1 million since mid November.

I'll put up the 2021 vs 2020 overall and regional health comp graphs a bit later

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

Piggy I don't blame them, do you? How much about the Tudors or Od-Bow lakes will you learn in 2 days?!

Check out the responses on any thread on this

It’s not popular at all

Ox not Od...unless there is such a thing as an Od-Bow lake. 🤷‍♀️😹

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

boys if I ply you with what are your real thoughts about monday I won't hold you to it To me it looks really worrying.

rather like Bob and his rats I've never liked them.

It’s definitely cuffing season in London !

boys boom and I hope the bourguignon exceeds expectations.
I hate my thoughts too.

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Am I understanding the SA and Denmark data correctly that they had short, sharp peaks with omicron? How far ahead of us are they?

Think it's a bit early to say that. Some signs of levelling off which could be a peak getting close, or could be bottlenecks in testing or reporting delays. Or part of a wobbly trajectory that goes back up in a day or two.

I'm quite sanguine being in a council area which saw a fall in cases as compared with the first day of reported cases for last Monday.

The Monday number is skewed to some extent by London; but largely a rise across the board just not on the capital scale.

As numbers go though it's not great. Tomorrow will tell how bad or relatively indifferent it really is. Can't see a "good" scenario though.

@PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets

If I had kids in school I'd be taking them out now to save what little there will be of Christmas - 10 days.

I did this for a couple of days in July as we were going on holiday / visiting family. I am not planning on doing it again even though it could potentially mean we don't get to see family. They need school and my eldest was really unhappy at missing the last few days. My youngest has had more days off than normal this year waiting for PCRs too.

I do not think SA has peaked. Many regions are still on the way up and there are known issues with backlogs/delayed tests.

However - the areas that might have peaked/plateaued are the areas that matter - the province of Gauteng and, more specifically, the district of Tshwane. Louis Rossouw on twitter posts regular updates on SA numbers.

Thanks for all the the graphs, boys3.

The specimen date analysis (Mon number) is really striking.

It’s not popular at all

I think my experience on the ground says rather different marsha...

@Piggyinblankets

It’s not popular at all

I think my experience on the ground says rather different marsha...

Not sure it’s that common given what I hear from others.

Anyway data thread

@sirfredfredgeorge

But PrincessNutNuts Plenty of children in London caught it longer than go 3 months.

If it is "surging antibodies" that is key - vaccinating everyone with booster in the same 2 weeks is going to be disastrous in X time when they all wane at the same time, the "surging" response is surely mediated purely by the demand placed on the immune system by the vaccine?

Well yes. And I'm sure if Omicron hadn't happened, then boosters would have been spread out, and at the six month point, which is likely to give a better response than reducing it down to three months.

Right now, though, that's rather like worrying about the impact of water from the fire hoses on the foundations of your house. I mean, it's a real concern. But the fire is goign to destroy things much faster so you have to act and take the long term consequences.

@MarshaBradyo

"Check out the responses on any thread on this

It’s not popular at all"

Data thread - Yes, quite.

At the end of the da, marsha , people may not get the choice looking at the schools' data I posted slightly upthread.

Now there is talk of delta and omicron marrying and having nasty dc.

[quote PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets]@MarshaBradyo

"Check out the responses on any thread on this

It’s not popular at all"

Data thread - Yes, quite.[/quote]
Not sure why you’ve quoted this part.

But anyway great we all agree on it being a data thread and it can be left to the many other threads on the topic.

Monday (day-1) does stand out somewhat

The number of PCR's is high for a same day isn't it? As well of course as the very high number of LFD's today - does that mean PCR testing has sped up, or positivity is about to go through the roof?

But the fire is goign to destroy things much faster so you have to act and take the long term consequences

See I don't agree with this - giving a low efficacy booster to 18-30 year olds and preventing them getting it simply puts extra stress on the booster capacity may well prevent some more vulnerable people getting a booster - if it's so obvious that we should be boosting younger adults - why aren't other countries doing it, but are focusing on boosting vulnerable?

Simply postponing this wave until peak flu season doesn't seem a great idea - especially as every iteration has lower support for measures.

(ie I support locking down, more than I support booster vaccinations)