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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

999 replies

JanglyBeads · 05/12/2021 17:21

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
232
sirfredfredgeorge · 14/12/2021 17:42

(who I think are a bit thin on the ground in South Africa, or possibly hermits, or some sort of super-humans with natural immunity....!)

Even with overshoot and full R, delta would still leave over 10% without it, with the mitigations to reduce R, it can easily be more.

Positivity rates are an indicator

Positivity is barely changed, from 9.6 to 10, which is pretty much the sort of rise you'd expect with R>1 since the omicron announcement, and it's still below the peaks during the even the summer delta "waves" let alone the rates during the big waves coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England
Positivity is absolutely in line with suggesting we're not missing any more cases than before - unlike obviously during the Alpha wave when the 25% positivity suggests we miss a lot.

Piggyinblankets · 14/12/2021 17:46

School attendance stats (including workforce). Not pretty

schoolsweek.co.uk/covid-staff-absence-up-by-20-as-term-draws-to-a-close/

sirfredfredgeorge · 14/12/2021 17:52

Does it imply that school children have previously had delta but young adults haven't? Why would that be ?

I think the hypothesis is that school children mix in smaller groups than pub/restaurant/nightclub goers, and that fewer of them managed to avoid infection via vaccine than the young adults. So the "pub wave" that we saw in July/August that the young adults were in, was mediated by vaccines as well as previous infection. That has left a larger susceptible pool in the age group now that vaccine alone is less effective. So the 10% maybe who avoided it due to too many of their friends getting it but not being unlucky themselves and the 30% who avoided it because of vaccines was enough with the mitigations to keep R around and even below 1 even as vaccines waned. However with the lower effectiveness of vaccines you might now have 40% in the age group susceptible to omicron which is enough to drive the rise.

In the unvaccinated kids, it got to the over 70% in every school class because there were no effective mitigations, so now they're more protected because the overall immunity from infection is higher.

This would also explain why the omicron wave starts dropping relatively quickly if it does (it appears to in Gauteng) - the susceptible population is simply not as large as feared.

The main problem if this hypothesis is true of course is that the older and more vulnerable age groups will have less infection or infection+vaccine immunity so it will spread faster in those groups. The only news if it is true, is that fewer mitigations would be required to limit the spread in those older age groups because there will be less infected younger ones around.

wintertravel1980 · 14/12/2021 17:53

Does it imply that school children have previously had delta but young adults haven't? Why would that be ?

Children had Delta more recently. Most of young adults got infected or vaccinated over summer so their immunity may be waning.

wintertravel1980 · 14/12/2021 17:55

sirfred explained it better:).

PrincessNutNuts · 14/12/2021 17:57

Recent surging antibodies may be the key.

Since that is primarily why the boosters help.

Children may be more likely to have had covid recently (since protections were removed in schools in September) and 20-29s months earlier.

PrincessNutNuts · 14/12/2021 17:57

Lol. Jinx.

MarshaBradyo · 14/12/2021 18:00

So given school age delta does likely help protect? - not zero as in pp

PrincessNutNuts · 14/12/2021 18:05

@sirfredfredgeorge I was thinking of SA's positivity rate, since they are ahead of us.

We haven't had the dramatic rise in hospitalisations or paediatric admissions yet either. (Next week?)

sirfredfredgeorge · 14/12/2021 18:05

But PrincessNutNuts Plenty of children in London caught it longer than go 3 months.

If it is "surging antibodies" that is key - vaccinating everyone with booster in the same 2 weeks is going to be disastrous in X time when they all wane at the same time, the "surging" response is surely mediated purely by the demand placed on the immune system by the vaccine?

peridito · 14/12/2021 18:12

I'm so sorry to use your thread for sharing data as an "any questions " opportunity so feel free to ignore me .

70% protection from any/serious symptoms or 70% protection from being infected .??

WHO says www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection

those who received the vaccine were at a lower risk of developing disease than the group who received the placebo
and
Vaccines provide at least some protection from infection and transmission, but not as much as the protection they provide against serious illness and death. More evidence is needed to determine exactly how well they stop infection and transmission

To me ( and my brain has an annoying habit of getting the wrong end of the stick ) this reads as though there is lower (or presumably unknown) level of protection against infection than there is against having serious symptoms .

Would we have to know the nos of people infected but asymptomatic( so not testing ) to shed light ? Is that data available from waste water/sewage ?

So not 70% less chance of catching it but 70% less chance of being seriously ill ?

PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets · 14/12/2021 18:13

Not all of us live in London.🤯

PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets · 14/12/2021 18:15

perdito after reading that, my brain agrees with yours...but we might both be wrong.

Firefliess · 14/12/2021 18:18

I suspect the surge being led by the young adults is probably too do with large scale indoor mixing that they do a lot of at this time of year. Children mix in somewhat smaller groups and schools aren't quite as crowded as pre-christmas bars and clubs.

Plus a lot of the 12-15s got infected and then vaccinated which might be protecting them a bit better than vaccination alone. Their parents have also been getting boosted the last few weeks, which may help too.

lonelyplanet · 14/12/2021 18:19

But PrincessNutNuts Plenty of children in London caught it longer than go 3 months.
But plenty of children did catch it in London in the last 3 months.

Not all of us live in London.🤯
No, but London is currently of interest because cases are growing fastest there.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
sirfredfredgeorge · 14/12/2021 18:21

So not 70% less chance of catching it but 70% less chance of being seriously ill

No, 70% of being symptomatic, unknown number of asymptomatic on top of that. Protection against severe disease is still very high well over 90% - this is much much better than the flu shot, and remember, as sad as it is, a respiratory virus is often what finishes someone off.

JanglyBeads · 14/12/2021 18:21

PNNs
We haven't had the dramatic rise in hospitalisations or paediatric admissions yet either. (Next week?)

Highest number of paed admissions with covid ever yesterday:

twitter.com/antonio_caramia/status/1470806503779188738?s=21

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 14/12/2021 18:22

If they caught it in last three months amd it’s flat there’s still protection /benefit from that

If it reduces cases in Jan too then it helps - and helps keep schools going

lonelyplanet · 14/12/2021 18:22

The 20 to 29 group are the most recently vaccinated and should have better protection as most had Pfizer. I think something else is going on.

Firefliess · 14/12/2021 18:23

@peridito

I'm so sorry to use your thread for sharing data as an "any questions " opportunity so feel free to ignore me .

70% protection from any/serious symptoms or 70% protection from being infected .??

WHO says www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/vaccine-efficacy-effectiveness-and-protection

those who received the vaccine were at a lower risk of developing disease than the group who received the placebo
and
Vaccines provide at least some protection from infection and transmission, but not as much as the protection they provide against serious illness and death. More evidence is needed to determine exactly how well they stop infection and transmission

To me ( and my brain has an annoying habit of getting the wrong end of the stick ) this reads as though there is lower (or presumably unknown) level of protection against infection than there is against having serious symptoms .

Would we have to know the nos of people infected but asymptomatic( so not testing ) to shed light ? Is that data available from waste water/sewage ?

So not 70% less chance of catching it but 70% less chance of being seriously ill ?

See the Twitter link I shared earlier. I think 2 doses of Pfizer gives around 30% protection from catching it and 70% protection against hospitalisation. 2 doses Pfizer or AZ plus booster is at 70-75% protection against catching it, and no data as yet on protection against hospitalisation because it's too early to know that in the UK and not enough people in. South Africa have had boosters for there to be any data from there. Would have though it would be more than 70% protection against hospitalisation with a booster though - as vaccines always seem to give more protection against hospital than infection.
boys3 · 14/12/2021 18:24

spec graphic for England. Monday (day-1) does stand out somewhat

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 14/12/2021 18:26

seven day moving average (cases) for England overall, London (on secondary y-axis), and rest of England without London

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
PussyCatEatingPigsInBlankets · 14/12/2021 18:26

If I had kids in school I'd be taking them out now to save what little there will be of Christmas - 10 days.

Piggyinblankets · 14/12/2021 18:27

Certainly seems to be what quite a few at my place are doing...

boys3 · 14/12/2021 18:27

and our / the 50k by this Friday in London scenario

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021