Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

and the 25-29s

with a 25-29 graphic

Not on quite the same scale though still high; 30-39 age bands.

London up 85% in one; 57% again more than double any other region in England.

40-49 age bands

London up around 30% in each, again more than double anywhere else.

50-59 age bands

starting to see decreases as well as increases. Again though London with far bigger percentage increases than anywhere else.

60-69s

every region decreasing in both age bands - aside from London

70-79s

more mixed picture, almost every region up in the 75-79s, but relatively small numbers in absolute terms and from a much lower base.

The three oldest age bands. A fair bit of red here too; again relative low starting point and absolute number increases.

back to the youngest age groups. 15-19s

10-14s quite a lot of drops, and London, although up, only marginally so.

and the final two age groups; largely increasing across the board.

which makes me think I should triple check the 10-14 figs

Is anyone able to tell me please; in the UK...How will we know if delta is in decline and omicron is suppressing it and putting this variant into decline?

Lelivre I think that a % of PCRs are tested to see which strain of Covid has resulted in a positive result .And then they extrapolate from that .

@Lelivre

Is anyone able to tell me please; in the UK...How will we know if delta is in decline and omicron is suppressing it and putting this variant into decline?

Although a week in areas the Sanger institute (see OP links) provides data at council level, lots of graphical info, and the ability to download the base raw data set. They normally update their download file on a Monday, it used to be by around 10am but looks to have been much later in the day for the past few weeks.

Sanger does seem to be just for data in England.

the UKHSA is publishing regular, higher level, updates.

boys were the 60-69s decreasing in London before omicron?

Looking for insight here ,and aware that this shows my ignorance ,but how does a booster result in such a dramatic rise in resistance to omricon ?

I'm very uneducated in how vaccines work - something about enabling your body to produce the appropriate antibodies when encountering a particular virus and to go on doing so for a period of time .

The Omricon virus has developed a different way of infecting people and a double dose of vaccine provides little in the way of defence .The booster isn't a different vaccine so I keep thinking it's effectiveness here is simply (ha ha ,bet it's anything but simple ) linked to the first two doses waning in their action .

But that can't be the case can it ? As 2 doses still protect against Delta ?

It’s a good question and I would like to know the answer too

If the vaccines haven’t been tweaked for Omicron, is there really going to be much more benefit conferred by giving a 3rd dose ? Particularly for those who are already double jabbed with Pfizer ?

Listening to a very clear and good epidemiologist last night on LBC he said it’s not so much waning efficacy but that the vaccine is for the original strain and as such there is a mismatch between the new variant and the defence.

The booster overcomes this mismatch - overloading with antibodies (might need more science based explanation from someone else)

We now know from studies that the booster creates this needed protection.

So more mismatch than waning - although that might be there not sure

Does anyone know if it’s the same for double Pfizer?

I would like to understand this I am double jabbed with Astrazeneca how if I get 1 pfizer booster is that better. I will do it no issue but I dont understand the maths I saw on another post. I am 70% less protected someone said with 2 x AstraZeneca than if I have one dose of Pfizer. How is that.

I would also like to be educated on what the correct definitive spelling of the new variant is 🤔

Does anyone know if it’s the same for double Pfizer?

As far as I’m aware it’s fairly similar for pfizer. x2 pfizer without a booster is 30% effective against symptomatic omicron vs 70% after a booster. That’s off the top of my head but those percentages are in the ballpark.

I think it’s moderna that haven’t released their figures yet.

@Regulus

boys were the 60-69s decreasing in London before omicron?

@Regulus.

60-64s in London rose during October, started the month at 129 per 100,000 ended at 212 per 100,000, dipped back a bit to 185 by 8th November, a bit more lumpiness before reverting to upper 180s on 23rd Nov then a gradual upward trajectory, 212 on 6th which is marginally the highest rate sine 1st October and looks, from the gender files, to be continuing upward - not at a huge pace.

65-69s almost below 100 per 100,00 at start October, rose to 190 o by 25th October then steady fall to close to 100 again by 24th November. More pronounced upward trajectory than the 60-64s since then, to stand at 153 on 6th December. So someway below that 190 per 100,000 peak; but heading back in that direction.

Relative to the 20 somethings much lower rates still.

The booster overcomes this mismatch - overloading with antibodies (might need more science based explanation from someone else)

This yes, but of course the overloaded antibodies rapidly disappear - 'cos they're only overloaded because of the recent exposure to the vaccine, and it returns to lower / no quickly.

So if it is only overloaded vaccines that change the effectiveness against omicron, then another booster will be required to restore the level.

@sirfredfredgeorge

The booster overcomes this mismatch - overloading with antibodies (might need more science based explanation from someone else)

This yes, but of course the overloaded antibodies rapidly disappear - 'cos they're only overloaded because of the recent exposure to the vaccine, and it returns to lower / no quickly.

So if it is only overloaded vaccines that change the effectiveness against omicron, then another booster will be required to restore the level.

Is this based on what I put or something that is known?

I would have to listen again to get exact phrase

Thanks @boys3 as long as this info is available to gauge. I ask because of a graph on Twitter suggesting a dual wave of delta and omicron at the moment in Denmark. I'll see if I can link it