Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Ok thanks

less than 10% up on reported in England again, although relatively low number of PCR confirmation from a few days suggesting maybe PCR tests are a bit delayed? (doesn't matter to the actual numbers, but it could suggest other PCRs are still missing that could also be positive)

London, If 30% of cases in London on the 8th were Omicron, and the doubling time is 2 days - then delta was rising fast until the last couple of days when it's turned negative, I don't think that's realistic, so I'm struggling to see how Omicron's doubling time is 2 days if the 30% is correct. I think one of those two must be overstated.

should take an NHS rapid lateral flow test every day for 7 days

This is going to impact the stats quite a bit, would be interesting to see how many positives it picks up - particularly asymptomatic positives, but sadly I doubt we will, but if it detects a significant number of cases it will show up how good or bad the past freedom from isolating as a contact was for reducing spread - particularly if you could also look at Omicron/delta on those cases, but sadly none of that will be directly published.

Does anyone have any info on where omicron started?

I know it's only speculation at this stage but

Hang on? Is there an 8pm briefing tonight?

Yep….BBC breaking news briefing 8pm by BJ and covid level increased to 4

Is there??

The daily testing thing is not going to go well. No checks for a start.

Schools will be demolished.

International comparisons.

I don't know how useful they are since most of us are probably headed in similar directions but visual representations always help me.

Yes, level 4 and 8pm briefing, put apparently no new restrictions.

@Regulus

Yes, level 4 and 8pm briefing, put apparently no new restrictions.

Ok. Good. I just had palpitations then.

@Regulus

Yes, level 4 and 8pm briefing, put apparently no new restrictions.

Fgs what’s with a Sunday level 4 announcement

But no new restrictions

Bloody hell

Ok yes BBC have it. They say no new restrictions to be announced today.

Mitigations I should say, it’s wrong to call them restrictions.

what does level 4 mean?

Does anyone have any info on where omicron started?

Nope, it's particularly strange too due to the lineage, how it mutated so much outside of any testing seemingly from a variant that had not been in circulation for a very long time is strange. Could be immuno-compressed individual living with it and struggling through it for many months and not infecting anyone caring for them during that time - or it could've spent time in an animal reservoir (remember all the Mink and Hippos and Deer and stuff who caught it) before coming back to humans.

As to the location, South Africa obviously identified it first, and had a significant wave, but now we've seen that burn itself out quite quickly, it could actually have been growing in other areas and not been noticed, it clearly had spread to very large number of areas before being noticed in SA. "The Rugby" is not a good reason for the cases in Scandinavia.

There's no good evidence at all really.

*The daily testing thing is not going to go well. No checks for a start.

Schools will be demolished*

This is a stricter requirement on schoolchildren than has existed, why would it make things worse?

I think it’s about boosters I assume that opening up to the under 40s and they want to push that massively
There were also rumours about covid passes coming for 12-15 year olds on the system and with 2 jabs opening soon for them

All kind of hinting at potential for vaccine passprts

Sunday night 8pm address to the nation does have a bit of a feeling of doom about it .

Unless he's just trying to reassert his authority and move the headlines on from his Christmas quiz. Possibly more likely!

www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview/uk-covid-19-alert-level-methodology-an-overview

Updated :4 Nov, but I don’t remember ever seeing this before?

Basically it means we’ll be at level 5 soon, IMHO.

@Lalalablahblahblah

The thing is though, if nothing is changing what's the point of an 8pm Sunday night update? Kind of sounds like more restrictions to me...

Quite. It also dilutes the message if we need another actual 8pm broadcast.

I imagine he will just tell us to not catch covid. And that if we do catch covid it's our fault if we have to have further restrictions.

Maybe he is resigning 😑

thanks Jangly. what a mess again

Fred:

• Because some parents won’t do them and will lie. Doubt that schools can demand proof, although let’s see what the DfE guidance says (and it is only guidance at present, although may become law apparently)
• Because we don’t know if daily LFTs are sufficient to pick up infections in time - and what happens if the child becomes infectious but not symptomatic during the school day? With omicron…..
• if half the staff become infected then a school will be forced to close.

wishful thinking

I just want someone who stops interrupting zen evenings

So if he goes someone else can come in and stop addressing us. That’ll work