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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

999 replies

JanglyBeads · 05/12/2021 17:21

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

OP posts:
Thread gallery
232
boys3 · 11/12/2021 19:36

those with the biggest percentage increases in the South East

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 19:36

biggest decreases in the South East

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 19:42

South West both end, in terms of increase several are just around the 10% increase mark, so the graph is a bit flat.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 19:49

West Mids those with at least a 15% week on week increase, whilst those at the other end have a 6-12% decrease

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 19:54

Nowhere in Yorks and Humber with a double digit percentage increase.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 20:00

North East not many councils so all of them shown

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
JanglyBeads · 11/12/2021 20:06

Thanks boys, as ever!

OP posts:
boys3 · 11/12/2021 20:10

North West

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 20:11

and more North West

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021
boys3 · 11/12/2021 20:13

@JanglyBeads

Thanks boys, as ever!
I've been a bit underwhelmed by the Strictly semi - partial distraction needed. :)
Notmulan · 11/12/2021 20:19

Thanks boys3 . What a mixed picture. South Africa positivity rate has steeply decreased in a day. I don’t know if they have the same sofa as us , but it’s certainly confusing. I know they are increasing vaccinations there but I don’t know if South Africa did anything else to mitigate the spread eg lockdowns

JanglyBeads · 11/12/2021 20:30

(I loved the semi final boys! Esp Rose and AJ.)

Only 44% of 12-15 yos have been jabbed:
www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/11/labour-demands-christmas-vaccine-guarantee-for-pupils-in-england

OP posts:
sirfredfredgeorge · 11/12/2021 20:37

Does anyone have more details on South Africa - obviously the headline numbers show Gauteng already broadly flat/descending and lower pcr positivity rates, and other areas already possibly slowing.

Is this some artifact of less testing etc. or have the informal restrictions led to massive change of behaviour to (seemingly) drop omicrons reproducation rate?

wintertravel1980 · 11/12/2021 20:37

Yes, the SA situation looks almost too good to be true:

twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469003220534149123

Can Omicron really be 10 times milder than Delta? I guess we will know soon.

sirfredfredgeorge · 11/12/2021 20:39

I see Notmulan asked the same question at the same - the change has certainly been reasonably normal as a pattern - peaking and descending in Gauteng, rising in the others, similar sort of "wave" patterns we've seen in lots of places as cases stop without formal restrictions.

MarshaBradyo · 11/12/2021 20:43

@wintertravel1980

Yes, the SA situation looks almost too good to be true:

twitter.com/pieterstreicher/status/1469003220534149123

Can Omicron really be 10 times milder than Delta? I guess we will know soon.

That would be very welcome news

Hope so

sirfredfredgeorge · 11/12/2021 20:47

Can Omicron really be 10 times milder than Delta? I guess we will know soon

I'm sure it can in SA, 'cos the key thing there is it's almost re-infections in a lower overall risk community, and "herd immunity" has been reached quickly again after the previous waves (ie re-infections only enough to maintain a small wave) A small wave also lowers the chance of getting to the vulnerable.

But that isn't the same as the UK, there are more people who've not been infected at all, which means there's more naïve population to be infected, so if it's only 10 times milder due to reinfection, and that is the reduction via the vaccine, so I'd say it's an entirely reasonable amount, then in a population with less re-infection it could well be worse - the naïve population would get hit just as much.

I guess the real question is how much of a naïve vulnerable population we truly have - ie how many of the unvaccinated vulnerable are unvaccinated because they recovered and didn't feel it worth vaccinating. And how much longer a wave will last with only vaccination protection against infection if that is particularly worse than delta.

containsnuts · 11/12/2021 21:14

I wonder if the fact that they identified Omicron so early could give the false impression of hospitalisations increasing at a slower pace compaired to other waves? We know looking back that the first wave was spreading for a while before it reached the vulnerable who needed hospital. Alpha spread first in young people giving the impression that symptoms were milder. Same could be happening again.

JanglyBeads · 11/12/2021 21:29

Yes that is thought to be a possibility @containsnuts

OP posts:
Lelivre · 12/12/2021 08:40

@containsnuts I had the same thought this morning. I plan to continue to be cautious whilst this becomes clearer to protect the elderly and unvaccinated young ones in the family. Long term side effects of covid are also a concern and there's no reason to suppose these are removed with this variant. If deaths are lower that is fantastic but it's such early days.

Another thought is virus spreading where there maybe some immunity against severe disease (vaccination or otherwise) is not the same as virus has mutated and become practically benign. The high number of younger people infected could (as containsnuts says) skew data, as risk of under 50s dying or in ICU is tiny with previous variants.

What about infants/immune compromised and other groups, especially given the transmissibility of this variant, we don't want these ones to find out the hard way.

Finally just the high transmissibility is a worry for our busy flu season, it could quickly disable services with absences; including healthcare environments already struggling.

Erring on the side of caution utilising every practicable mitigation is surely wise. Personally we are upgrading masks and testing more. I'm rather hoping DH will look at ventilation in his work environment (nhs, so he will be working throughout).

Lelivre · 12/12/2021 08:41

Regarding impact of sheer numbers. Apologies if this has been posted already:

twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1468988174693289994?s=21

usernotfound0000 · 12/12/2021 08:57

Not data but FYI, I'm under 40 and have just been able to book my booster jab online. They had appointments as early as Tuesday.

sirfredfredgeorge · 12/12/2021 15:38

Another day, and still more confidence that South Africa's outbreak is very self limiting, defying any of the pessimistic models for them, and pretty much defying the most optimistic too. Let's hope vaccine effectiveness was important and not just infection effectiveness.

Denmark still no indication of turning negative, if anything accelerating (~15% Omicron adding to their existing Delta surge) but still no stronger restrictions than the UK with WFH only advised, although the vaccine pass covers considerably more areas. (Oh actually slightly more standing events of more than 50 banned, but you can still have 1000 seated in a theatre)

Belgium's lockdown is back reducing cases after seemingly not for a bit, which does have all of the European countries with lockdowns reducing cases as expected - ie lockdowns do still work.

MarshaBradyo · 12/12/2021 16:36

Did I hear right - radio

From Tuesday close contact isolation for Omicron stops (for vaccinated only?)

Daily LFT instead

peridito · 12/12/2021 16:44

Yes ,

From Tuesday 14 December, people who are fully vaccinated and identified as a contact of someone with COVID-19 – whether Omicron or not – should take an NHS rapid lateral flow test every day for 7 days to help slow the spread of COVID-19

www.gov.uk/government/news/daily-rapid-testing-for-covid-19-contacts-launches-this-week

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