Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Quartz2208

So probably looking at a return to Step 2 to 3 with vaccine passports managing some of the things that only opened in Step 4?

Vaccine passports only for the boostered?

@lelivre the same Feed firefliess links to also says “good news so far is there are no hospitalisations or deaths associated with Omicron” . Just wanted to share the good with the bad

Although to put in context that’s in England and it’s early days , not in the elderly but I like to look for a pinch of hope !

I can't see them doing vaccine passports only for the boosted until everyone has been offered a booster. It would be too unfair on the younger people who are still waiting for theirs. Though I guess you could say that the over 50s require a booster to get a passport and younger people don't yet.

@Quartz2208

So probably looking at a return to Step 2 to 3 with vaccine passports managing some of the things that only opened in Step 4?

What’s step 2 to 3?

Is anyone listening to R4?

Is that California v Florida comparison correct?

• Florida lower lockdowns / school closures and lower death rate

The death rate was awful in Florida last year wasn’t it?

www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/us-coronavirus-deaths-by-state-july-1.html

California slightly lower death rate overall

It would be too unfair on the younger people who are still waiting for theirs

Vaccine passports are not about equality, they're about risk, the risk of an unboosted unrecovered person contracting coronavirus right now is higher than that of an unvaccinated recovered, and not much different to an unvaccinated (although the unvaccinated has a higher chance of serious illness depending on age etc.) Any health intervention has to be about risk, not rewarding/penalising people for their choices and opportunities.

Any path down the reward/penalise just brings us closer to denying interventions for any disease on non-health grounds.

The death rate was awful in Florida last year wasn’t it?

That was the message from the “blue” media/social media but in reality Florida’s numbers were lower than NY or NJ. They are higher than California (without adjusting for age) but California has not yet had a full Delta wave. Florida did this August.

There are arguments that Florida death rate is better than California’s on the age adjusted basis (as Florida’s population is older) but it is a bit of a rabbit hole and I am not sure how reliable this data point is.

My take is that Florida’s numbers are still “bad” but they are not as “bad” as they could have been given the age structure.

Re: lockdowns - I think people tend to overestimate impact of government measures and underestimate impact of behavioural changes. The US data previously showed that states with and without formal lockdowns/mandates experienced very similar drops in mobility and consumer activity.

@sirfred If it really was about risk rather than fairness we'd ban all the older people from entering pubs etc and let the young crack on - age is a far bigger risk factor than vaccine status. That isn't deemed acceptable, but allowing the old to socialise and not the young (who haven't been offered boosters yet) would be neither fair nor defensible in terms of risk.

No @Firefliess 'cos the restriction methods have all been about preventing spread, not risk of death - so the fairness in restriction is about minimising spread. The mechanisms have all been designed to prevent any infection, not only prevent serious infections.

Swapping to vaccine passports no longer is about preventing infection, the unboosted vaccine is awful (of course the boosted vaccine will likely be similarly bad in a few months and 75% reduction isn't enough anyway, as it's way below the herd immunity level - so everyone would still end up getting it.

If you want the route to be vaccines, you need new, better vaccines, none of the ones we have are effective enough.

@MarshaBradyo

Is anyone listening to R4?

Is that California v Florida comparison correct?

• Florida lower lockdowns / school closures and lower death rate

It was Ben Goldsmith, brother of Zac speaking on R4. The Los Angeles Times reported this in September:

“But with the Delta variant raging this summer, data show Florida has fallen significantly behind California in many key metrics. It marks a reversal for the Sunshine State, which last winter was hailed by some conservatives for keeping COVID-19 deaths and coronavirus cases relatively modest without major restrictions.

A Los Angeles Times analysis found that of the nation’s 50 states, Florida had the worst COVID-19 death and coronavirus case rate for the summer.

California’s summer death rate was about one-sixth of Florida’s, and its coronavirus case rate was about two-thirds lower.”

Anyway, data not opinion - big increase in cases ~20% up on the 7 day ago, but still not actually seeing huge acceleration.

Growth since 23rd November indicates R = 5.1 (CI 4.2 - 6.3)
Doubling time of 2.1 days

Bit confused about this, a doubling time that long with an R of 5.1 requires very long time between infection, time between infection which is pretty much impossible with covid isn't it ('cos you clear the virus or isolate)? Typically with Covid we've seen R around 3 gives doubling time of around 2, and Omicron is supposed to reduce it with shorter time to symptoms ?

California’s summer death rate was about one-sixth of Florida’s, and its coronavirus case rate was about two-thirds lower

Most of California stayed with quite strict restrictions all throughout the summer, although it varied more I think as there was more City empowerment - That sort of comparison is the same as comparing the UK and Austria say - where it's really just an artifact of when delta arrived.

Actually 26% up.

Presumably the increase will accelerate as a omicron becomes more dominant.

Anyway, data not opinion - big increase in cases ~20% up on the 7 day ago

although very considerable variations. Based on specimen rather than reporting date; England up by a single digit percentage - 7 day rate at 8th December as compared with rate at 1st December.

London largely driving things in England

These are regional seven day rates per 100,000.

2 graphs for Inner London boroughs, selected by percentage rate increase 8th Dec vs 1st Dec

Outer London boroughs spread over 3 graphs

East of England councils with the biggest percentage increase so as with any of the graphs that follow these may not include the councils in the region with the highest absolute rates. So no Thurrock or Central Beds for example on this graph.

East of England councils at the other end, smallest percentage increases, although this lot all have a lower rate than a week ago.

East Midlands

2 graphs for biggest increase as South Northants does not appear on the first one, and looks if anything to be now flattening, and possibly starting to fall back.

other side of the East Midlands's coin