Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 5 December 2021

[JanglyBeads]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths
PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Or it's the last weekend I can go out and do 10 days isolation if I need to before Xmas?

Papers today are saying two AZ are ineffective and two Pfizer are only 30%, combining this with children who have had at best one, this means we are entering into a wave in a similar situation as last Christmas.

I have been sent this by my anti vaccs colleague, is it really that bleak?

Ineffective against catching it - still prevents severe disease

And surely there isn't sufficient data to be confident about any of these quoted figures ?

I think we probably don't know for sure about protection against severe disease, but it seems it's expected to still be good still be good.

The lack of protection against infection is really worrying, though. It means that it's much easier for it to spread, and I expect high numbers of cases will still translate to higher hospitalisations and deaths.

Even if the protection against severe illness is quite good, if you're chances of catching it go up massively, then the chances of you getting severely ill also go up proportionately!

Not meaning to doom monger! It's a lot better than the headlines, but still possibley pretty bad, in my opinion.

Does anyone have any data on the efficacy of 2 x AZ plus a Pfizer booster?

I'm a still a bit unsure about vaccinating my teen (had covid in nov, so can't have it yet), I know Pfizer has 30pc protection so I guess the same as flu jab and she has that , so maybe. Or wait to see if they tweak the vaccine - but then she'd be last in the queue so maybe some protection better than none.

Agree it's too early for any really helpful data it's just early signs

I'm a still a bit unsure about vaccinating my teen

Why?

@Piggyinblankets good point! Not sure ! Will definitely get her booked in and maybe they will extend boosters to teens before next winter so that she has better protection. Data will be much clearer by the spring anyway. She was so unwell and the only light was that she'd be protected over the winter due to having had it and now that looks unlikely . I just question the value of only have 2 jabs, if it was a course of 3 I'd be happy.

@eggman007

Does anyone have any data on the efficacy of 2 x AZ plus a Pfizer booster?

Is this helpful? mobile.twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469351833416122369

James Ward
if you were waiting for a signal of Omicron in the case data, I think @UncleJo46902375 has found it:

twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1469577991911059457?s=21

I saw that Jangly. Worrying that the increase is in the 25 to 29 who won't get their boosters for a while yet. On the upside, they will mostly have had 2 Pfizer jabs.

[quote tootyfruitypickle]@Piggyinblankets good point! Not sure ! Will definitely get her booked in and maybe they will extend boosters to teens before next winter so that she has better protection. Data will be much clearer by the spring anyway. She was so unwell and the only light was that she'd be protected over the winter due to having had it and now that looks unlikely . I just question the value of only have 2 jabs, if it was a course of 3 I'd be happy. [/quote]
Yes, me too.

DS1 in theory is now eligible time gap wise for booster.

DS2 hasn't had his second yet because covid...

As @Lelivre mentioned earlier
does the government dashboard still only report first confirmed infections and not any re infections?
Due to repeat infections now being reported to be increasing, shouldn’t the dashboard now reflect this as any local/national figures reported are no longer going to be as useful for many reasons? It would be beneficial to have some sort of report on the dashboard to show the daily numbers and % of re infections

Good point @YoshimisMum

@YoshimisMum

As *@Lelivre* mentioned earlier does the government dashboard still only report first confirmed infections and not any re infections? Due to repeat infections now being reported to be increasing, shouldn’t the dashboard now reflect this as any local/national figures reported are no longer going to be as useful for many reasons? It would be beneficial to have some sort of report on the dashboard to show the daily numbers and % of re infections

Yes it does still exclude confirmed reinfections, which you're right it's clearly a growing problem with Omicron. Apparently they're working on fixing this, but in the meantime there is a weekly publication that identifies reinfections. I think the rapid rise we're about to see on the dashboard will be quite scary enough though even without them!

Dashboard detail still says
“If a person has more than one positive test, they are only counted as one case for all nations with the exception of Wales.” - Wales uses six week periods:six weeks after a positive, another positive is defined as a new infection.

Is this going to change in the light of omicron, I wonder? Otherwise the count is not going to represent true numbers at all.

(Sorry that post was meant for another thread)

Aargh no it wasn’t!

WHEN will we get an edit facility here??

Apparently 7% of Omicron cases are confirmed reinfections (Vs 0.4% for Delta) twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469352376901324804?t=aMUnWPLdHULllVzoOaY9AA&s=19

@Firefliess

Apparently 7% of Omicron cases are confirmed reinfections (Vs 0.4% for Delta) twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1469352376901324804?t=aMUnWPLdHULllVzoOaY9AA&s=19

I did not know this thanks for posting. This does not bode well at all!!!

This is interesting:

Should have said - that's CDC's quietly altered definitions .

New modelling out today from the London School for hygiene and tropical medicine:
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2021/modelling-potential-impact-omicron-england

So probably looking at a return to Step 2 to 3 with vaccine passports managing some of the things that only opened in Step 4?