Will the new close contact rules have opposite effect to intended?

[Greentrees2021]

Apologies if this has already been discussed somewhere.

I was just thinking if I got mild Covid symptoms now (other than the main 3) I would take a LFT and, if positive, I would now think twice about doing a comfirmatory PCR where I wouldn't have before. I would of course isolate off the back of the positive LFT, but if I went for the PCR there's a chance it called be Omicron which could then force my children and a whole bunch of my double/triple vaccinated family and friends into 10 days unnecessary isolation before Christmas.

If other people thought this same way actually, actually this strict new rule of the Government's could backfire in making people less likely to do PCR test and making it harder to track and analyse Omicron.

Am I missing something? What do you think? Is this a risk?

@MrsJackWhicher

Completely agree. A colleague tested positive a few weeks ago snd I and informed T&T of everyone she has had contact with who then got hounded relentlessly. If I got a positive LFT would discreetly isolate and tell people I thought so had contact with who could do their own LFTs and so on would NOT do a PCR.

My work asks for evidence of a positive PCR test if we need to stay at home and isolate. They don’t accept LF tests as positive tests.

Doing a PCR is important because it’s how cases are measured.

Imagine no-one bothered getting a PCR unless they were so sick they needed medical assistance. The data would then make it seem like everyone who got covid was getting severely unwell. Recording mild cases is important for understanding what is going on.

It’s doubly important at the moment because of the need to know where Omicron is and how fast it is spreading.

Also remember that the vast majority of cases are still delta, which doesn’t require close contact isolation.

If you are unlucky enough to have Omicron, it’s really important to know this and for contacts to isolate as it gives us the best chance of holding off the spread.

Basing your thinking on ‘I’ve never caught covid despite being a close contact’ totally misses the point - you’ve not been a close contact of an Omicron cases and the whole reason contacts of Omicron are being required to isolate is it’s feared to be MUCH more transmitable!

Also not doing PCR solely because you’ll get hounded by T&T calls is selfish in the extreme. Yes the calls are a pain but in the grand scheme of things it’s a minor inconvenience!

Maybe they should stop hounding people then? One call would be sufficient.

Regardless of how important PCRs might be, there are going to be people whose loved ones are sufficiently disadvantaged by the reintroduction of isolation for households that they won't do it. Especially as so many people have had covid recently anyway.

My kids had covid a few weeks back but I didn't, I presume that was the vaccine doing its thing. It's nearly five months since I had my 2nd and there are no 3rd jab appointments to be had, so it wouldn't surprise me if I did get omicron should I come into contact with it. The new rules would require my DC to miss yet more school, in this instance when they're hugely unlikely to get it, if I have a positive PCR. And I wfh so have no need for any paper trail to give an employer. There are plenty of people who will be in this position if they test positive now, and frankly the ethics of expecting further sacrifice from children are dubious. And the cohort who won't be able to pay the bills if they don't work hasn't gone away.

@VikingOnTheFridge

What makes you think that you, with vaccine-induced antibodies are susceptible to Omicron but your kids, with antibodies from a recent infection, aren’t?

The whole point of the new isolation rules is at the moment nobody knows.

Once the scientists know more, the rules can be loosened or tightened as necessary.

[quote CrumpledCrumpet]@VikingOnTheFridge

What makes you think that you, with vaccine-induced antibodies are susceptible to Omicron but your kids, with antibodies from a recent infection, aren’t?

The whole point of the new isolation rules is at the moment nobody knows.

Once the scientists know more, the rules can be loosened or tightened as necessary.[/quote]
The fact that we already know people with more vaccine doses than me are susceptible, and that there is no evidence that people who had covid so recently are capable of getting omicron now.

Anyway, you can do as you wish with this information, but either way, the impact on household members of the reintroduction of isolation is going to deter some people from testing. What anyone else thinks of this is immaterial.

@VikingOnTheFridge

The fact that we already know people with more vaccine doses than me are susceptible, and that there is no evidence that people who had covid so recently are capable of getting omicron now

Where are you getting this from? No-one is certain about this yet. The scientists have said it will take some weeks of studying Omicron before we know any of this with certainty.

I had covid last month and have had to get a PCR test this week because I had a cold with a cough. Pre-omicron I wouldn’t have had to do this. Why have they changed the rules? Because they don’t know how much a previous infection protects you from Omicron.

I’m not disputing that the requirement for household isolation is a potential disincentive to get tested, but pretending it’s unnecessary because you think you have some superior epidemiological knowledge is totally disingenuous.

The Israeli doctor who tested positive for omicron was triple jabbed. It's all over the news. It's rather silly to imagine one has to be a super epidemiologist to count to three.

Also, the use of the word unnecessary is entirely yours and is a strawman. What I said was that recently infected housemates are one of those situations that will act as a disincentive, along of course with those who need their wages and will lose them. These are all facts, however unpalatable, and will not be waved away by you thinking people should wait for the science. The potential for less testing because of this requirement is important and needs to be fully acknowledged.

I currently have covid. I filled in the online form and haven't had a single phone call from track and trace! Also, you can do a PCR, do the form and not enter names of anyone as close contacts if you don't want track and trace to call them.

"Also not doing PCR solely because you’ll get hounded by T&T calls is selfish in the extreme. Yes the calls are a pain but in the grand scheme of things it’s a minor inconvenience!"

Fortunately the one time ds was an isolating contact, his name wasn't given to Test and Trace which meant I didn't have to keep trying to explain to someone who probably didn't have any understanding of his disability, why he couldn't fully self isolate.

@VikingOnTheFridge

The Israeli doctor who tested positive for omicron was triple jabbed. It's all over the news. It's rather silly to imagine one has to be a super epidemiologist to count to three.

Also, the use of the word unnecessary is entirely yours and is a strawman. What I said was that recently infected housemates are one of those situations that will act as a disincentive, along of course with those who need their wages and will lose them. These are all facts, however unpalatable, and will not be waved away by you thinking people should wait for the science. The potential for less testing because of this requirement is important and needs to be fully acknowledged.

No what you said was if you tested positive for the Omicron variant is that your kids would be required the self isolate despite being “hugely unlikely” to catch it because they have had a recent infection.

The fact is that, you, I, or anybody else simply don’t know yet how likely it is that your recently infected DC could catch Omicron from you. The fear is that it is much more likely because existing antibodies (however acquired - by vaccine or infection) may be less likely to be effective against this variant. Hence the need to isolate contacts, at least until we know more.

I am not denying that some people will be loathed to get tested because they worry about isolation requirements. Though for what it is worth, when I went for a PCR test earlier this week, the staff said it had been absolutely heaving since Omicron hit the news, and their view ‘from the frontline’ and chatting to people getting tested was that it was down to people being more cautious and getting tested for mild symptoms they might previously have ignored.

@CrumpledCrumpet

Doing a PCR is important because it’s how cases are measured.

Imagine no-one bothered getting a PCR unless they were so sick they needed medical assistance. The data would then make it seem like everyone who got covid was getting severely unwell. Recording mild cases is important for understanding what is going on.

It’s doubly important at the moment because of the need to know where Omicron is and how fast it is spreading.

Also remember that the vast majority of cases are still delta, which doesn’t require close contact isolation.

If you are unlucky enough to have Omicron, it’s really important to know this and for contacts to isolate as it gives us the best chance of holding off the spread.

Basing your thinking on ‘I’ve never caught covid despite being a close contact’ totally misses the point - you’ve not been a close contact of an Omicron cases and the whole reason contacts of Omicron are being required to isolate is it’s feared to be MUCH more transmitable!

I was then coming on to say this but this post sums it up perfectly.

Defo - my ds year 11 tested positive last month just before mocks. I didn't do PCR just kept him off. He was ill and had 4 x positive lft - the only benefit would be to get T&T calls so no thanks

Glad you're no longer trying to pretend reading the words of the Israeli doctor is epidemiologist territory crumpledcrumpet. As I said, it's a fact that triple jabbed people can get Omicron and it's also a fact that there's no evidence those with such recent covid infections can contract it. Your view that nonetheless, the new restrictions are needed in case the latter point changes ignores the reality that this must act as a deterrent for some (anecdote is not the plural of data, but our testing centre is quite different to yours). It's all very well saying you don't deny it, although I suppose that's something, but simply telling people how important it is that they do PCRs and having to be reminded how detrimental this would be to some because of the isolation requirements doesn't suggest any real understanding of those situations. Bleating about them being selfish is just self indulgent.

You can register a positive LFT if you want to add to the stats but don't want to be hassled (or have to do yet another test).

@VikingOnTheFridge

it's also a fact that there's no evidence those with such recent covid infections can contract it

Scientists are warning that they’re seeing evidence of prior infection offering less protection against Omicron, and even that vaccination may offer MORE protection than prior infection.

www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/12/02/previous-covid-infection-may-not-protect-against-omicron-scientist-warns-as-data-suggests-variant-is-overtaking-delta-in-south-africa/

www.timesofisrael.com/early-data-shows-past-infection-does-not-ward-off-omicron-but-vaccines-efffective/

You can argue all you like about whether people are going to be put off getting PCR tests but the rationale for WHY they have changed the rules about isolation around Omicron is perfectly clear.

Maybe we’ll find out that a recent covid infection does still offer good protection - in which case, great, hopefully the rules can change. But it’s pretty simple to see why they’re taking a cautious approach.

Nobody is saying the rationale isn't clear. That's another strawman. The problem is the detrimental impact of that decision, and there's fuck all in either of the sources mentioned to indicate that the UK took those issues into consideration (not a great surprise as neither site is UK based).

Yes the data coming out of SA on prior infection not providing immunity is very concerning. I guess the government choice is either a) ask people to follow these rules now for Omicron and hope 50% do or not ask and then no one will.

The biggest issue is being led nationally by a rule-breaking tosspot, I am so tired of Johnson telling people what to do then doing whatever he wants

I completely agree OP, i won't be doing PCR. If i get a positive LFT i'll tell people who i have been close with and they can decide what they want to do.

The only person I'm a close contact of is dp, makes life easier . We are all taking lft before singing but I'm at the back so lower risk

@Lazypuppy

I completely agree OP, i won't be doing PCR. If i get a positive LFT i'll tell people who i have been close with and they can decide what they want to do.

Same.

@Lazypuppy

I completely agree OP, i won't be doing PCR. If i get a positive LFT i'll tell people who i have been close with and they can decide what they want to do.

If you only do a LFT, you won’t know if you have Delta or Omicron so your contacts won’t even know what they are supposed to be doing.

Why not just get the PCR, then you know what you’re dealing with. You don’t HAVE to provide contact details to T&T - when I was positive recently I told T&T I didn’t have contact details for anyone I had been in contact with (in fact I’d already contacted everyone myself, then again for T&T on behalf of my DS, but I wasn’t going through it a third time!)

@CrumpledCrumpet people shouldn't have to be isolating if they have been double jabbed, its ridiculous. As i said i would tell my close contacts and they can decide for themselves. They can either get a PCR, do a LFT, or ignore it. Their decision.
I have no interest in knowing which variant it is anyway, its either covid or its not.

Lying to T and T is one thing if you're just not telling them about your random mate who popped round, something that isn't traceable, but the majority of the population lives with at least one other person. You can't have no close contacts details if you don't live alone. It should be obvious why people might be afraid of telling such a blatant and easily checked lie.