@ollyollyoxenfree I'm really interested in what you said here on Thu 02-Dec-21 12:29:29.
It was also on the subject of leaky vaccines. Like I said I've only just started reading about this so I was grateful to you for mentioning Geert Vanden Bossche as I hadn't actually bothered to go and read his letter to WHO previously as I had allowed myself to be influenced by press headlines and internet soundbites into dismissing it.
But this is where I am with what I understand of his complex theory today in reply to your post.
Yes this is widely accepted - have posted before on why Geert Vanden Bossche et al's speculation on this has been dismissed
This seems like a huge claim to make to me. Surely it is too early to be so sure. And perhaps it is also foolish to dismiss what he says when we are in situation which is constantly changing and evolving. Maybe the Omnicron variant (or the one after it) will shed some light on the emerging picture.
A virus can only mutate when it is replicating, as this when it's genetic material is copied, and mistakes can be made.
Yes to this.
Replication only happens when someone is infected. The quicker and more efficiently the virus is cleared, the less chance there is for it to acquire mutations. A greater level of immunity will enable this to happen quicker - which is gained by vaccination.
This is where I have a big question mark. What I understand so far about what Geert Vanden Bossche is this;
Viruses mutate, that is part of their natural replication process. What covid vaccination has the potential to influence is how those mutants are then "selected" (by evading the vaccine induced variant specific immunity) and transmitted by their human hosts in proportion to previous variants of the virus. So leaky covid vaccines which protect better against "old" variants than they do against a new emerging mutant are giving host space to the new mutant (especially if that mutant is highly infectious and transmissible) and allowing it to become dominant. Thus the highly infectious new emerging mutant becomes the new dominant variant.
What I understand Geert Vanden Bossche to be saying is that this is a logical possibility (based on what we know about immunology, virology and vaccinology) which needs to be examined. He also has concerns about the emergence and "selection" of more virulent mutants.
I guess we are in the process of finding out if he is onto something. I imagine that the people who decide on vaccination strategy and policy will be watching carefully to see what happens in highly vaccinated populations such as Israel.