[quote Beachcomber]@Cornettoninja
You say this - "They’re not foolproof but the chances of mutation are heavily diminished with the use of vaccines."
Do we know that for sure?
AFAIK it has been widely accepted in the past that "leaky" vaccines which do not prevent contraction and transmission of disease are a significant factor in virus mutation.
Do we have any reason to think that covid vaccines and the covid19 virus are different?
I don't believe that we do. Which is worrying.[/quote]
Honestly I don’t have any evidence I could point you to. I’m not saying it doesn’t exist, I simply haven’t looked for it/saved any links I’ve come across. A vaccination which lessens a disease logically reduces the amount of time it can freely replicate in the body, but I take your point. It is concerning but what’s the alternative?
What I would say is that a high percentage of vaccines that are currently in use are also ‘leaky’ and still afford us a great deal of protection compared to the time before their existence. Off the top of my head, mumps is particularly shit (60% effective against transmission). Of course we also have a relatively high degree of natural immunity of other diseases in the population alongside vaccines which is also beneficial. We can’t forget that one of the factors that makes covid dangerous is the fact it’s a novel disease and even two years in, natural immunity is still rare.
It’s quite hard to judge how much benefit will be derived from covid vaccines whilst globally rates continue to be high. If the covid vaccines are comparable to other vaccines in common use then there’s no reason to think that eventually we can’t control it to the same degree as a disease like mumps. I suspect that if this was a mumps pandemic of the same magnitude we’d be seeing similar issues with mutations and vaccine escape.