Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

I agree.

Torridge may have a lot of unexposed people but I imagine that might be true of a few other places not showing quite such a fast rise. Something has to be behind it

Yes, but that something needn't be complicated, it could be nothing more than a super-spreading individual being at a couple of events seeding a lot of people in a short period (who keep spreading it then because of the large naïve populations)

@sirfredfredgeorge

40k reported again today, up around the 10% mark week on week still, so whilst not growing faster (so R must be around 1 still, after going above briefly after half term, after being below for a couple of weeks) still not resumed falling yet.

Certainly not the growth rates seen in most of western Europe where it's really going hard still, and so consistent between countries even with different restrictions - are we perhaps really seeing where the weather conditions start to give covid another transmission advantage?

I'm sure you are right regarding weather being key in this.

Anyone insight on Rutland?

It’s tiny and has a reservoir?

Sorry lonely…

It does seem to have odd moments doesn’t it. It was the prison at one point wasn’t it, could it be that again?

Came on to post this, study into effects of reducing hospital oxygen levels in 2020. Not good.

twitter.com/danielgoyal/status/1462353170529726464?s=21

Not sure if there's anything unusual going on in Rutland to cause their high case rate but the actual number of cases was about 260 or so. I suppose just having a handful of cases in each school leading to home transmission could add up together with say a handful in hospital. Sorry this is just my thoughts.

Indeed it could have been something simple - possibly this event. www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/shebbear-villagers-just-saved-world-6175061?fbclid=IwAR2nGsB_l3PBcH9XRsMENSQXgVreBbEfQZdA51s7rFoIqcQXz9sHPQj0j6M

Shebbear is near the centre of Torridge. Looks like the devil had some revenge! I'd not heard of this ceremony before.

However East Devon and Lewes (both celebrate bonfire night in a big way) dont seem to have the same rise.

It seems as though they left no stone unturned.

This breaks down cumulative cases per 100,000 a bit more by splitting it into hopefully vaguely logical periods. These being

Start of the pandemic through to end May 2020

June to August 2020 - cases largely quite low, testing starting to increase

September to October 2020 - cases rising with the return of schools and Uni through to the eve of the November lockdown

November through to end Jan 2021 - alpha wreaking general havoc

Feb to end May 2021 - though lockdown with cases falling

June and July - Delta taking hold, Euros peak

August to date - arguably could be split further; however case rates during this period have never dipped to low levels.

Using these period the first graph shows how the maximum; 90th percentile; median, 10th percentile, and median rates have moved overall.

As such the Council with the lowest cumulative rate at the end of July stood at 2681 and now stands at 7,301; and the 10th percentile council at 5363 and has now more than doubled to 11,076.

At the end of each period these are the top 20 Councils with the highest rate during that particular period - for reference the tables show the rates for each individual period for the councils shown.

These are the top 20 Councils at the end of May 2020 - hugely less testing back then of course and not many conclusions can really be drawn. Indeed conclusions from this period probably best avoided.

June 2020 through to end August - all the excitement in Leicester came to the fore early on.

September 2020 to end October 2020 largely North West councils in the highest 20 for this period, with a bit of Yorkshire thrown in. Nottingham , in the East Mids, had the highest overall rate.

November 2020 through to end January 2021

Nothing much north of Watford really - give or take perhaps 20 miles. Filled with London, Herts, Essex and Kent. Plus Slough

@boys3, thank you for the last graph, I am trying to understand it

• so it seems that some councils were fairly low all the way through the last 19 or 20 months and some have been consistently high?

That seems different to the idea that different councils are being worst affected periodically and then the number of cases subsiding to a large extent as immunity increases.

I guess some areas will have a much higher density of population, some will have a climate a little more favourable for spread of a respiratory virus, and local uptake of preventative measures may play a part?

February 2021 to end May 2021 cases overall on a downward trajectory throughout.

Back to a more Midlands and Northern council mix'although Slough still there, plus Luton and Peterborough.

June 2021 to end July 2021, with one exception all North West and North East Councils in the top 2020.

finally August 2021 through to where we are now.

Hmm, so on the chart with lines for max, median, min etc., I am quite confused now as to what that means for the individual councils, and how this fits together?

As you definitely are showing a picture in your other tables where different areas are taking turn to be top of the covid leaderboard?

@herecomesthsun

Hmm, so on the chart with lines for max, median, min etc., I am quite confused now as to what that means for the individual councils, and how this fits together?

As you definitely are showing a picture in your other tables where different areas are taking turn to be top of the covid leaderboard?

the min / max / median - just reflects the rate for the council at that position for a specific period - so it could, and in almost all cases save Blackburn, will be a different council for each period.

Tbh I've struggled with a single graphic. The one I've used is very probably not the best given the confusion caused.

Previous Stocken Prison (Rutland) outbreak was in February and definitely dominated local rates
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-rutland-stocken-prison-b1799745.html

The next set overlay some individual councils on the first graph, which might help make more sense of that graph although I'm not wholly convinced

This is Blackburn. Its period rates are the columns.

As this shows whilst in the particular periods used Blackburn has never had the absolute highest rate in any period, in most it has been above the 90th percentile rate - so always well inside the top 30 Councils with the highest rate.

The stand out is the latest period where the cumulative rate in Blackburn since the end of July is within the 10th percentile; so amongst the lowest rates in England.

This is Leicester

Torridge amongst the very lowest in England up until the most recent period in which its cumulative is amongst the highest 10%

In contrast this is North Norfolk whose rates had been like Torridge amongst the lowest in England.

Unlike Torridge it is still in the lowest 10% in the latest period; although as can be seen its cumulative rate since the start of Aug climb considerably relative to how it had been prior to that; but remain still in the lowest 10%

North Devon; similar to Torridge although with an uplift in the June-July 2021 period although that remained below the median level. Unlike the current period.