Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Here we are :

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58032842#:~:text=Coronavirus-,Covid%3A%20Pulse%20oxygen%20monitors%20work%20less,on%20darker%20skin%2C%20experts%20say&text=A%20device%20designed%20to%20spot,darker%20skin%2C%20experts%20are%20warning.

July 2021...

And Feb 21

www.mobihealthnews.com/news/fda-warns-pulse-oximeters-less-accurate-people-darker-skin

What is perhaps worth pondering is that the current gov only take interest in it when

a) there is a health secretary specifically up for discussing (some elements of) disparities

and

b) it could distract from other larger issues with said inequalities.

Sorry,-politics!

It's genuinely interesting : the issue lies in medical training including for GPS, paramedics, nurses - not just hospital staff. The same issue comes up with rashes : nearly all pictures in medical training are of white , male skin. And also in the difference between treatment of and care for CF versus sickle cell anaemia.

@lonelyplanet

I agree winter's theory doesn't explain Central Bedfordshire or a number of other places for that matter. Look at Leicestershire, they've continually been high on cases, see Hinckley for example. No historic lows there and currently one of the highest areas.

Time to dispel some of the misunderstandings about Central Bedfordshire, and to some extent Leicestershire.

I'd tend to agree with @wintertravel1980's perspective at that is where the actual data leads us.

Cumulative cases per 100,0000 in Central Beds as per the graph are below the median in England.

These are the English council areas with the highest cumulative rates in England.

This includes the city of Leicester; but nowhere in the county of Leicestershire.

I was kind of responding I guess to the idea (I know there have been very quiet phases!) that if you got the Kent attack and have had the Delta spike, you can't go that high again. Mild as that may make (largely affluent, largely semi rural) C Beds look it is definitely having another Delta spike.

as for the rates in Leicestershire.

Oadby and Wigston - only just outside the top 20, not unexpected for what is essentially a suburb of Leicester.

Blaby just outside the top 50

The likes of Hinckley and Bosworth - around 5% above the median. Not really supporting the assertion that it has seen consistently much higher rates. Or less diplomatically completely disproving that statement.

Harborough and Melton both below the median; only just for Harborough.

But the Bs are all on that table again.

Yes, as Gurdasani points out, oximeters are not the cause of the BAME community’s doubled or tripled risk of exposure to Covid in the first place.

lowest 20 areas. In which the most intriguing entries are the London Boroughs of Westminster and Camden . And includes to no great surprise areas such as Torridge

But the Bs are all on that table again.

34 council areas in England start with a B ; only 3 of 33 are on that top 20 table. :)

Sorry my post didn’t need again as the tables are cumulative - which is a useful thing to have, thank you.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla%26areaName=Central%20Bedfordshire#card-cases_by_area_whole_pandemic

Cumulative case rate (and cases) can be accessed from any LA cases page on the dashboard - lists every Council. Far bottom right corner as you scroll down.

@JanglyBeads

Sorry my post didn’t need again as the tables are cumulative - which is a useful thing to have, thank you.

@JanglyBeads sorry I thought you meant lots of places starting with B in the highest areas - which at times has indeed certainly looked to be the case (no pun intended, and possibly unnecessary tautology ??? :) )

Sorry to barge in, I just wanted to say I am astonished they have not updated symptoms. Both my dc have had it and no cough at all.

Boys I agree with your data. What I guess I'm questioning is whether we are safe because we now have enough acquired immunity. If the likes of Hinckley (which as you've said is pretty much average forr cumulative cases) and is very high at the moment, we still have a lots of areas in danger of rapid rises - more than half of all areas.

fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-London-latest.html

This data on London may have already been shared so apologies if posting again. Interesting (and good news) that excess deaths in under 50 is now less than expected during the period March 20 to November 21. Not surprisingly excess deaths are much higher than expected in the older age groups. It also breaks down boroughs, ethnicity, male/female.

That doesn't explain to me why Central Beds for example is so high.

The cumulative prevalence in Central Beds is "only" 13,514 per 100,000 population. I had to scroll down quite a bit to find it in the LA table sorted by historic reported cases.

Blackburn started showing signs of endemicity when it reached 17,000 per 100,000.

And thanks for the great graph, boys3. I replied to piggy but I missed page 8 of the thread:). Thought we are still on page 7.

Yes, I responded to that point a couple of posts ago . I am referring to the fact that it has been asserted on here before that previous 'Delta areas' won't see new spikes and C Beds emphatically is, having recently been the highest it has ever been. I never suggested it was a longstanding virus hotspot.

I am referring to the fact that it has been asserted on here before that previous 'Delta areas'

I have never heard that said, what I think is being shown in this data is how little term time mixing there is in so many communities once you take out a few groups, and so we get entire communities around schools sufficiently isolated from others, so you can have very high prevalence in one community where even a close neighbouring one doesn't.

This doesn't survive holidays when the mixing in holiday shuffles it all up and we're back to new areas. Looking at data at the local authority level doesn't tell you about community spread, as the communities aren't really aligned on local authority boundaries.

Been said multiple times fred but oh well...

I think it depends on definition of the Delta "wave". Most (if not all) areas saw some sort of a spike in July (the Euro 2020 peak) and some sort of a "back to school" hump or peak (depending on the LA). However, some LAs were hit particularly hard (e.g. Blackburn, most of the NE boroughs) with weekly prevalence exceeding 1,000 per 100,000. The latter are probably closer to endemicity than the former.

Yes, and Bedford was one of those Bs remember.... Bedford is not Central Beds, to be fair. But both had a lot of Delta before the Euros.

C Beds was particularly rammed, fairly unusefully for immunity it now transpires, by the Kent variant.

This is an interesting thread looking at the 'politics' of some leading lights and their comparisons with Europe:

twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1462379623321374722

40k reported again today, up around the 10% mark week on week still, so whilst not growing faster (so R must be around 1 still, after going above briefly after half term, after being below for a couple of weeks) still not resumed falling yet.

Certainly not the growth rates seen in most of western Europe where it's really going hard still, and so consistent between countries even with different restrictions - are we perhaps really seeing where the weather conditions start to give covid another transmission advantage?

Quote from an ONS study in 2020

"Diabetes was mentioned on 21% of death certificates where COVID-19 was also mentioned. This finding is consistent with other studies that have reported a higher risk of death from COVID-19 among patients with diabetes. This proportion was higher in all
Disparities in the risk and outcomes from COVID-19 BAME groups when compared to White ethnic groups and was 43% in the Asian group and 45% in the Black group. The same disparities were seen for hypertensive disease."

Well known that type 2 diabetes is more common in BAME people. We now now that a gene that makes you highrisk for covid s more common in South Asians. www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59165157

But lets not focus on establishing the true causes of differences so that we could maybe do something about them. Instead lets focus on a piece of machinery that has been known for a while to be not entirely reliable. Maybe people already allow for this or maybe it contributes a bit to the problem - hardly likely to be the major problem.

Torridge may have a lot of unexposed people but I imagine that might be true of a few other places not showing quite such a fast rise. Something has to be behind it.