Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

West Midlands

Yorkshire and the Humber

Re Dr Coetzee - I'm confused about why so many healthy young adults and kids in SA would suddenly turn up at the doctor with such mild symptoms. There must have been something beyond tiredness and scratchy throat? I noticed a few reports describing a "racing heart" and I wonder if that is what promoted so many of them to seek medical attention? That would be frightening even if mild.

@Stircrazyschoolmum

mrex can you elaborate on your comment regarding Clapham South and tooting? There was a definite secondary school surge in mid Oct and there’s been a surge in the last week amongst parents attending Xmas events. (No cases of new variant that I’ve heard of). DD’s year at PHS have had a significant number of cases over last 2 weeks but seems to be on the wane.

I look at comparative rates day by day to see changes and spot anything unusual in patterns of increase and decrease. It looks to me like there is a patch of increases in infection moving through various MSOA that's growing quicker than the normal growth and die-back patterns we've been seeing from Delta. Could be coincidence, for sure, but I'll now be watching the area to see if the pattern persists and checking if it's happening in any other areas (a strange little patch in Surrey maybe).

twitter.com/mroliverbarnes/status/1465973721013829633?t=lybLR6PESAP5DuSy1Hu1RA&s=19

From that twitter feed that Jangly posted. Kind of wish I hadn't read it now. If this is what this new variant is capable of where does that leave us?

@MRex. Thank you. I’m aware of one ‘super spreader’ event involving around 20 households that might account for some of it. It feels like Lambeth/Wandsworth were bucking the trend for a long time (like much of London) and are now catching up. I’m not aware of any families experiencing more than mild flu, but these are healthy, affluent, double jabbed families that won’t necessarily be impacted in the same way as other populations. No insider knowledge on the single omicron case in Wandsworth yet I’m afraid, but PCR tests on friends kids not showing it. (Yet!)

There was an interview yesterday with Angelique Coetzee and Evan Davies, on BBC4 at 5.30. Dr Coetzee mentioned again that her impression of omicron was that infections were mild - including in people who were elderly and vulnerable (had had cancer). Her clinical impression was that these people would have been much more unwell with delta.

This is of course both subjective and anecdotal, but is generally encouraging. The crucial thing will be whether the severe infections and deaths are found to increase in patients with omicron.

As regards hospitalisations, one does wonder, if all the cases are so mild, what their criteria for admission currently are.

That is encouraging @herecomesthsun. Agree on the definition of 'mild' though if they are still leading to hospital admissions.

containsnuts I'm confused about why so many healthy young adults and kids in SA would suddenly turn up at the doctor with such mild symptoms

I've seen it suggested that "sick notes" are more commonly needed before employers will pay staff not in work and that this might be the reason .

@peridito

containsnuts I'm confused about why so many healthy young adults and kids in SA would suddenly turn up at the doctor with such mild symptoms

I've seen it suggested that "sick notes" are more commonly needed before employers will pay staff not in work and that this might be the reason .

If so this would be a key driver

Agree on the definition of 'mild' though if they are still leading to hospital admissions

Has anyone drawn the graphs of patients admitted in Gauteng, rather than simply admissions? Yesterday 1035 in Gauteng on the 20th November 529 (and 1098 on the 18th!) - so despite the 1000 per week admissions in the Murdoch graph for the last week, the increase in in patients is nothing like that - the problem is I have no idea what the normal progression in the South African hospitals are etc. Or if even there's missing data, the fluctuations possibly even suggest strange reporting, but this does appear to be the same source as the Murdoch data for admissions.

www.nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/surveillance-reports/daily-hospital-surveillance-datcov-report/

Interesting twitter thread on mask mandates

mobile.twitter.com/Devilstower/status/1466487068440289285

healthpolicy-watch.news/south-

Found these. Don't really understand the graphs but the accompanying text is reassuring. Any thoughts?

africa-reports-lower-covid-related-hospitalisation-rate-with-omicron-than-delta/

[quote herecomesthsun]Interesting twitter thread on mask mandates

mobile.twitter.com/Devilstower/status/1466487068440289285[/quote]
Not sure about this I had a look at the source data and the case rates between the masked and non masked counties isn’t as profound. Probably I would estimate 5-10% more.

Given the mask mandates seem to be in the more affluent city areas there are IMO other factors at play with the far larger death dofference

Don't we need to be able to compare deaths with cases approx 3-4 weeks ago and hospitalisations with cases 1-2 weeks ago?

And very early days.

But, yes, encouraging.

The link has gone wrong for some reason

The mask thread came to my notice because Neil Gaiman (love his writing) re-tweeted it.

Re affluence, we have had a lot of mask-wearing locally throughout, but the 1 person at the Waitrose fish counter or farm shop not wearing a mask has come across as decidedly posh (with a Range Rover outside etc)

Similarly, there is a high disdain for mask-wearing from Conservative MPs and Telegraph columnists.

So, anecdotally, affluence can go along with committed non-wearing of masks.

Then again, I'm very likely to see masks in Waitrose and a bit less likely in Aldi

@Quartz2208

@herecomesthsun

The mask thread came to my notice because Neil Gaiman (love his writing) re-tweeted it.

Re affluence, we have had a lot of mask-wearing locally throughout, but the 1 person at the Waitrose fish counter or farm shop not wearing a mask has come across as decidedly posh (with a Range Rover outside etc)

Similarly, there is a high disdain for mask-wearing from Conservative MPs and Telegraph columnists.

So, anecdotally, affluence can go along with committed non-wearing of masks.

Then again, I'm very likely to see masks in Waitrose and a bit less likely in Aldi

@Quartz2208

The case graph though

documentingcovid19.io/state/MO

Terrible at linking!

Is interesting because it shows that unmasked and masked counties rise and fall at a similar rate but with a consistent gap (of around 5-10%) between them indicating for me mask effectiveness at around that rate (which for me holds true with other studies).

The masked counties in Missouri were St Louis and Kansas - the big cities with one would imagine healthcare insurance etc. The non masked were the more rural areas.

It irritates because actually it does show mask effectiveness if you look at the cases but the deaths I think shows something else - the discrepancies between different areas in the States and is quite different from us here.

Summary of SA briefing (from Prof Pagel)

ONS survey figures (for week before this one)

Slight increase in figures in England up to 1 in 60

Slight increase in primary school kids (the group with the highest infection rate at the time of the survey) 4.2% positive

Quite a big decrease in secondary school, which is lovely to see, presumably they have at last had some vaccinations, which are finally taking effect. 3.5% positive

@Lalalablahblahblah

I keep reading conflicting reports. Does anyone know whether the consensus is that omicron is actually more of a risk to young kids than Alpha or Delta was?

Too early to say. And anyone screaming OMG THE KIDS right now is doing it to scare you.

So far, primary school age kids have been very unlikely to be seriously ill etc; the godsend with the pandemic has been that children are relatively very unlikely to get ill. It would have been so much worse the other way around.

There's something very strange going on with the NICD data
1st of November as age/case data of admissions
www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NICD-COVID-19-Daily-Sentinel-Hospital-Surveillance-report-National-20211101.pdf
as does
1st of December
www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Datcov19_National_Export-20211201.pdf

The problem is there's not enough extra admissions in the age breakdown in the whole of November to account for the stated numbers of admissions.

In the data there 2.6% of all admissions were under 10's up to Nov 1st vs 18% of the breakdown on the November cases - but the problem is the November cases claimed total 750 odd, which is nothing like the sum of the daily admissions. I'm getting very annoyed with scientists making statements based on data, when they don't provide the source of the data they're using so we can actually look.

Quite a big decrease in secondary school, which is lovely to see, presumably they have at last had some vaccinations, which are finally taking effect. 3.5% positive

Or with the average size of school being much bigger, it's simply gone through all the schools, which I actually hope, as otherwise we just get a whole new wave in 3-6 months once the vaccine (and booster) has waned.