Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 14th November 2021

[boys3]

Welcome to the DATA thread.

Our preference is for actual, data driven and analytical contributions.
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Our links below probably need a refresh ready for the festive season,. so all reasonable suggestions welcome.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

@Piggywaspushed @Quarantino apologies if already discussed but it makes me wonder how many cases are going undetected because they are misdiagnosed as food poisoning/normal flu/something else..

[quote Stircrazyschoolmum]**@Piggywaspushed* @Quarantino* apologies if already discussed but it makes me wonder how many cases are going undetected because they are misdiagnosed as food poisoning/normal flu/something else..[/quote]
Tim Spector generally says you can double the official count according to the ZOE app.

[quote Stircrazyschoolmum]@PrincessNutNuts that graph is sobering. I hope the key difference will be levels of vaccination? (Although that doesn’t stop our youngest population being at risk)[/quote]
The corresponding admissions graph currently seems to show that they aren't increasing at the same rate as cases and are in line with those from previous waves which could mean that this variant is milder, but more time is needed to see what happens there

Cases and admission graph

Although those graphs are from a couple of days ago so admissions could have increased by now

[quote Stircrazyschoolmum]@PrincessNutNuts that graph is sobering. I hope the key difference will be levels of vaccination? (Although that doesn’t stop our youngest population being at risk)[/quote]
Let's hope. But as well as greater transmission, some loss of protectiveness of the vaccines seems to be expected.

Stephane Bancel of Moderna says:

“There is no world, I think, where [the effectiveness] is the same level . . . we had with [the] Delta [variant],”

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/27def1b9-b9c8-47a5-8e06-72e432e0838f

That graph was from the 30 Nov. His most recent post is less optimistic mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769

Am afraid his updated (now log) graph today tells a different story Bordois:

twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1466522914677833739?s=21

Admissions are always lagged, but if the cases are predominantly in the young, then they will look far less worrying than they do as the cases move up the age groups. ( as they usually do.)

Jinx Jangly!

And Bonne!

Also, in SA they retroactively up the hospitalisation totals as numbers come in I read somewhere today so as well as the usual covid lag there's also data lag.

Yes, Burn Murdoch points that out.

@JanglyBeads

Yes, Burn Murdoch points that out.

Maybe that's where I read it.

@PrincessNutNuts

You all know I love a graph.

From @Rid1tweets

I wonder if this could be a product of testing at least in part... The focus on omicron in SA has, understandably, been greater than for other variants. If testing is being done more in a more extensive and focussed manner, that would translate into more recorded cases.

Their case positivity rate is pretty high though. About 16 I think.

And testing wouldn't explain the gradient on those hospitalisations.

Why are cases in Botswana not climbing at all? I thought it was there too!

looking at just this week's case growth - eg Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday spec dates as reported so far - as compared with the same reporting point last week at age band level for English regions.

To set the scene these are the overall case numbers by region for the three days - where age and sex is known.

The second graphic shows the overall England increase / decrease - mainly the former - by age band. Worth noting some of the very small numbers in the older age bands particularly when we get into percentage changes by age band at regional level. And of course the more even distribution of the increase - with the biggest single increase in the 40-44s.

starting alphabetically East Midlands

First graph shows the increase /decrease in case numbers by age band, and the cumulative change in numbers as we move up the age bands.

The second is the percentage change for each age band shown in blue for the region and in the odd sludge colour choice for the overall England change.

East of England

the high percentage increase in the 85-89s, which is actually 125% but that would render the rest of the graph less clear, is of course from a very low base number ( 8 v 18)

London

North East

North West

South East

South West