Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

@bumbleymummy
I’m sorry but my question was: [in terms of restrictions/NPIs] Do you honestly believe that nothing short of the most draconian lockdowns has any effect?

I don’t think they don’t have any effect but I don’t think that they are necessary at this stage given that they can also have some pretty significant disadvantages too.

Positive news today, cases continuing to trend downwards, hospitalisations hopefully starting to turn the corner too.

Hopefully this is indicative that we don't need any additional restrictions at present for cases/hospitalisations to remain manageable.

Unfortunately, it looks as though the Delta wave is starting to move through the rest of Europe as cases start to rise there.

Graph courtesy of @RP131 on Twitter.

Remind me what usually happens when children are off school again?

And usually happens a little while after they go back?

@Sunshinegirl82 yes, it’s looking really positive :)

17 consecutive days of cases lower than they were the previous week. That can only be a positive thing.

How many times have things looked "positive" to you guys @bumbleymummy & @Sunshinegirl82 over the last 22 months of the pandemic?

And how did that work out for you?

How many times have you predicted 100,000 cases a day princess?

@bumbleymummy

How many times have you predicted 100,000 cases a day princess?

Just the once.

I think it is somewhat disingenuous to say the last 22 months though Princess.

I think it is positive that we are on a downward trend - that doesnt mean though that it wont have an increase just that we are on an exponential rise. Undulating waves since we have opened up with vaccinations and few restrictions is positive.

We are no longer the worse country in Europe either

Are you saying that dropping case numbers and hospitalisations is a bad thing @PrincessNutNuts?

I have always been pretty clear I think that it is impossible to know for definite how things will look going forward. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that a trend of dropping cases and hospitalisations is indicative that we will not need further restrictions to keep cases at a manageable level throughout Winter.

@Sunshinegirl82

Are you saying that dropping case numbers and hospitalisations is a bad thing *@PrincessNutNuts*?

I have always been pretty clear I think that it is impossible to know for definite how things will look going forward. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that a trend of dropping cases and hospitalisations is indicative that we will not need further restrictions to keep cases at a manageable level throughout Winter.

I'm saying it's a temporary thing.

Caused by the recent school holidays.

Was that not clear?

@Quartz2208

I think it is somewhat disingenuous to say the last 22 months though Princess.

I think it is positive that we are on a downward trend - that doesnt mean though that it wont have an increase just that we are on an exponential rise. Undulating waves since we have opened up with vaccinations and few restrictions is positive.

We are no longer the worse country in Europe either

Disingenuous how?

We've had kids off school enough times during this pandemic to know the drill.

Yes but we are back now to similar levels to when the schools went back in September so the rise has been broken - even if it is temporary that is a positive sign Princess because it means that we at the moment manageable undulating waves rather than 100000 cases a day.
It may not be the low case levels you want but that doesn’t mean it isn’t positive

@PrincessNutNuts

Not really. I find very little you say to be clear to be honest!

In other news, case numbers in England down 8% on last Wednesday making 18 consecutive days of week on week drops.

🥳

Princess - I admire your tenacity as the last of the doom mongers holding fort.
The other ones seem to have deserted these boards? One in particular that starts with N.
Onwards and upwards!

@Sunshinegirl82

In other news, case numbers in England down 8% on last Wednesday making 18 consecutive days of week on week drops.

Cases down, admissions down and deaths starting to drop.

All the European countries that were supposedly shining beacons of "how it should be done" are now seeing their exit waves beginning.

Yep. Many of them with vaccine passports and vaccine/mask mandates.

Poor Germany...all those unvaccinated people in hospital for their 4th wave just beginning

Even if the waves do coincide with the school half terms, we’ve managed the first one, now cases are dropping. Even if they start to rise now until the end of the Xmas term it feels manageable, especially knowing the half terms do bring about a drop in cases.
The boosters are now getting going so I think we’re at the beginning of the end. We all got the first vaccines at the wrong point of the year (obviously we needed them at the time), the annual boosters I imagine will be each autumn.

@Glenmarnoch

Even if the waves do coincide with the school half terms, we’ve managed the first one, now cases are dropping. Even if they start to rise now until the end of the Xmas term it feels manageable, especially knowing the half terms do bring about a drop in cases. The boosters are now getting going so I think we’re at the beginning of the end. We all got the first vaccines at the wrong point of the year (obviously we needed them at the time), the annual boosters I imagine will be each autumn.

Boosters may well be in the autumn in 2022.

Possibly because "a stable endemic state" will probably be declared in about May, and it will take until the relentless uptick of cases in the autumn to realise that "stable endemic state" is the new "herd immunity" in the bullshlt declaration olympics.

(Unless we hold a spate of sporting super spreader events in the summer in which case we might spot the bullshit sooner.)

But I'm 2023 hopefully we'll do better at acting in accordance with the facts rather than wishful thinking.

@Mythroatisstillsore

Poor Germany...all those unvaccinated people in hospital for their 4th wave just beginning

They relaxed the mask mandate in schools and got case numbers like ours.

Not exactly hard to predict.

Did Austria, Netherlands and Italy make similar changes at pretty much the same time?