Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

@milkyaqua most people are not cold and heartless and have spent a year restricting their lives and their children’s lives for the benefit of others and to save lives. The point that was being made is that we seem to be going further to prevent COVID deaths than we do to prevent deaths from things like flu. Why? Whether it’s a nice thought or not, we have clearly accepted that there will be thousands of deaths every year from flu and we didn’t wear masks, use sanitizer, lockdown etc to prevent those. So it seems that there probably is a level of annual deaths that will come to be accepted from coronavirus too.

@ImTellingTales Ireland have been using vaccine passports for hospitality for months and they are still seeing a rise in cases and hospitalisations.

In s bad flu year an average 30,000 people die from flu AND Pneumonia.
A bad flu year equated to vaccine failure.

Sorry missed attachment

You still haven't actually engaged with the point though have you? You just talk about callousness, lack of regard for human life, how terrible it all is etc, lots of emotive words that don't address the point.

People clearly are that callous when it comes to flu deaths aren't they? I'm not aware of widespread campaigns to impose restrictions in Winter to reduce flu deaths?

I'm assuming you either can't or won't give an answer.

There isn't a chance in hell that she's going to give you a straight answer here, for obvious reasons.

[quote ImTellingTales]@Sunshinegirl82
“ Scotland and Wales have maintained compulsory masks and wfh throughout and there is no significance difference in case numbers in those countries compared to England.

On the basis that those restrictions alone don't appear to lower case numbers, what additional restrictions on top of masks and wfh do you think should be reintroduced?”

There are many variables, not least the actual levels of working from home, which may not be very different, or may even be lower, for Wales and Scotland than England. High levels of home working is the best explanation I’ve come across for London’s relatively low rates of Covid through most of the pandemic so I wouldn’t dismiss home working so easily. Plan B also includes Covid passes.
I notice you don’t dispute my point that most countries have low level restrictions that most people currently accept so people who reject all restrictions are the outliers.

Whether it’s caused by Covid or Flu, or a combination there is a level of chaos and death that most people and even this government won’t accept.
We accept curbs on our freedoms to reduce the spread of TB (no spitting rules), lung cancer and other smoking related deaths (no smoking rules), as well as a body of health and safety legislation that has been growing since at least the 1840s.[/quote]
I'd be happy to accept a level of restriction that had an impact. WFH and masks alone are unlikely to make much difference to case numbers. I'm not anti restrictions, I do think it's unlikely they'll be reintroduced without a sustained increase in case numbers.

Whilst current case numbers aren't low they are fairly stable and have been for some time. If they continue at these levels I don't think there will be an appetite to reintroduce restrictions.

I don’t think it is cold and heartless to recognise pragmatically that saving every life is impossible or that there needs to be a balanced impactful approach.

Swinging to both ends simply isn’t helpful and I think what most people are trying for is a normal life as much as possible while being mindful is the norm. Testing/mask wearing when needed

The one thing that should be back is household isolation for positive case

The one thing that should be back is household isolation for positive case

I think the disadvantage of this is that many people have had the virus asymptomatically or very mildly without realising and are therefore isolating for no reason. Perhaps having to test everyone in the house while there is an active case would make more sense? That would cause less disruption/unnecessary absences.

I think that works for a close contact who isnt household whose contact ends the minute that the positive is found but it does seem to spread quickly (anecdotally) through households and that can cause more spread.

As I said I think it is balancing out both sides and coming up with reasonable compromise for measures that can be implemented in order to try and prevent spread that work alongside life

I’m ok with the change at this stage, as we move on from doing any isolation that is not required

@ImTellingTales “Ireland have been using vaccine passports for hospitality for months and they are still seeing a rise in cases and hospitalisations.”
A lot of countries are using them and are in a better state than us including Ireland.

The equivalent number of Covid deaths causes more disruption to the health service than deaths from flu. We are however now doing more to bring down flu deaths than we did pre-pandemic because we can’t afford the disruption to the health service.

Our cases have been decreasing while Ireland’s are still rising.

@bumbleymummy

Our cases have been decreasing while Ireland’s are still rising.

Our deaths are rising faster than Ireland’s. Portugal has vaccine passports and its rates are coming down if you want to use that sort of argument. Do you honestly believe that nothing short of the most draconian lockdowns has any effect?

Do you honestly believe that nothing short of the most draconian lockdowns has any effect?

Eh? I don’t want draconian lockdowns. I also don’t want vaccine passports. I think we should get a move on with the booster campaign for older people (who still account for most hospitalisations and deaths) and vulnerable groups, and move on.

“ Eh? I don’t want draconian lockdowns.”
No. I didn’t say you wanted a lockdown, but your argument seems to be that no other restrictions have any effect and should therefore not be used.
I didn’t ask what you want, I asked what you think has an effect (on rates, hospitalisations and deaths).

@bumbleymummy

Our cases have been decreasing while Ireland’s are still rising.

Not according to the ONS and ZOE.

I’m sure Jonathan Van Tam just said we were at half time of extra time and he expected a much calmer situation in the spring

He also said we are currently running hot, hotter than anticipated at this point in autumn so it was a concern that needed monitoring

@ImTellingTales

“ Eh? I don’t want draconian lockdowns.” No. I didn’t say you wanted a lockdown, but your argument seems to be that no other restrictions have any effect and should therefore not be used. I didn’t ask what you want, I asked what you think has an effect (on rates, hospitalisations and deaths).

I’m not overly concerned about rates tbh. They seem to be falling, particularly in children given that so many have now been infected. Giving boosters to the groups that were most likely to end up in hospital (elderly/vulnerable) would make the most difference to hospitalisations/deaths IMO.

@PrincessNutNuts ons is a couple of weeks behind, other sources say cases have been dropping over that time. Iirc Zoe was dropping slightly over the last few days too.

[quote bumbleymummy]@PrincessNutNuts ons is a couple of weeks behind, other sources say cases have been dropping over that time. Iirc Zoe was dropping slightly over the last few days too.[/quote]
The hospital admissions and deaths should start dropping this week then?

bumbleymummy

ImTellingTales
“ Eh? I don’t want draconian lockdowns.”
No. I didn’t say you wanted a lockdown, but your argument seems to be that no other restrictions have any effect and should therefore not be used.
I didn’t ask what you want, I asked what you think has an effect (on rates, hospitalisations and deaths).
I’m not overly concerned about rates tbh. They seem to be falling, particularly in children given that so many have now been infected. Giving boosters to the groups that were most likely to end up in hospital (elderly/vulnerable) would make the most difference to hospitalisations/deaths IMO.”

yes, that is probably true, but I was asking about restrictions aka NPIs.

No I cant see hospitalisations or deaths dropping this week even if the cases drop is a real one and not artificial (either by a lack of testing or a lab testing issues). Hospitialisations with the next couple of weeks.

Deaths sadly I think are currently running 4 weeks or so behind. I think they could rise quite uncomfortably actually as data wise we could actually be looking at the September cases rise rather than the October one.

Just hearing JVT

I agree that boosters and flu jabs are very important so it’s good he’s getting the message out

I think it's difficult to compare this pandemic to ones of yesteryear. We do all hope that we are at the end of this, but comparing them to previous pandemics and using that as a timescale is not too useful. For example, we now have much more movement between ourselves for work and recreation. International flights popping in and out mean that this needs to be a whole world effort. With some countries in dire situations, I fear this is just the beginning.

JVT saying that whilst it's difficult to predict when we will get to "the final whistle" his personal view is that we have "a few more months to run and we'll be in a much calmer set of waters by Spring".

The next few months are going to be unpredictable but I would say that his statement is broadly positive.

@PrincessNutNuts probably in the next few weeks, yes. Although hospitalisations and deaths may not drop too sharply until we get the boosters rolled out to the elderly/vulnerable.

@ImTellingTales I’m not a fan of any restrictions tbh. They were supposed to be an temporary measure given the extreme situation we were in, in the absence of vaccines. I don’t think they should be our ‘go to’ and I think we should be moving away from using them as much as possible.