Are we nearer the beginning, the middle, or the end of the covid pandemic?

[PrincessNutNuts]

They asked this on YouGov this week.

What do you think?

@Sunshinegirl82

Did Austria, Netherlands and Italy make similar changes at pretty much the same time?

Must have done. Along with Belgium, Ireland and Greece too!

But its no surprise to see how this was entirely predictable, even though its never been mentioned and these other countries were still being given as examples of what the UK should be doing up until very recently 🙄

Remember when the U.K. covid case numbers got high in July because more people mixed indoors due to sporting fixtures?

Well what happens when summer draws to a close and it gets chilly?

People mix more indoors.

Taking masks in schools etc away at the same time just makes things worse.

But yes, many of those countries are also trying to reduce NPUs and some are trying to rely on a vaccine (inc vaccine passport only covid policy.)

Even just removing masks in primary schools has had an impact on France's numbers.

And as I always say. vaccines can't do it on their own, especially at rates like 67%.

Countries need to adequately vaccinate as much of their population as possible, then calibrate the level of ongoing NPIs that will keep cases low.

Trying to "go back to normal" every year will result in sizeable winter waves every year.

@PrincessNutNuts

I'm optimistic that the introduction of highly effective anti-virals should mean that, alongside the vaccine, there'll be no need for restrictions next year. I have a suspicion you'll still be advocating for masks though until the end of time...

[quote Warhertisuff]@PrincessNutNuts

I'm optimistic that the introduction of highly effective anti-virals should mean that, alongside the vaccine, there'll be no need for restrictions next year. I have a suspicion you'll still be advocating for masks though until the end of time...[/quote]

I just point out that actions have logical consequences.

I agree @PrincessNutNuts but the UK approach for this winter is to manage an undulating wave - and that is why the October half term drop though temporary is a good sign because it means that approach can work. It is/was a risky one and comes with as you say consequences. We are going for a longer manageable wave.

Other countries suppressed for longer and as you rightly say let go more recently - it isnt a coincidence that they are rising now but they are rising higher and faster than ours did because we did it in July when it was warmer and less people were outside

@Quartz2208

I agree *@PrincessNutNuts* but the UK approach for this winter is to manage an undulating wave - and that is why the October half term drop though temporary is a good sign because it means that approach can work. It is/was a risky one and comes with as you say consequences. We are going for a longer manageable wave.

Other countries suppressed for longer and as you rightly say let go more recently - it isnt a coincidence that they are rising now but they are rising higher and faster than ours did because we did it in July when it was warmer and less people were outside

Ah, the old

"Let's have a 'exit' wave in the summer to avoid an 'exit' wave in the winter which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS"

chestnut.

Without NPIs we're having a wave in the winter as well as the one we had in the summer.

People being sick and dying in their thousands since Freedom Day does nothing to prevent people being sick and dying now.

It's bullshit.

And worse than that, it's a tragedy.

Because most of the sick time off work, the chaos in schools, the sick children, the hospital admissions, the long covid and the deaths are avoidable.

We know this because countries with better covid policies have avoided them.

For years.

We are still in the exit wave - there is no exit wave in the summer or winter. It is the same wave. It has always been about stretching it out to a manageable level across a longer period of time bit. Dont try to change what I am saying. Our exit wave has not ended and I dont think we will exit it until Spring at the earliest. It was I think the aim in July. It remains to be seen how it compares to others

You seem to still think there is someway of avoiding all of this - and what do you mean for years? Who exactly in Europe has avoided all of this. And it does need to be Europe because otherwise the comparison doesnt hold true for many reasons already gone over

It is the same wave. It has always been about stretching it out to a manageable level across a longer period of time bit.

It might have been better if the ‘exit wave’ had actually been at a manageable level and not at a ‘bad winter’ level tbh. I can’t possibly see how heading into the winter pressure period with the health service facing the sorts of pressures it sees at peak winter time was part of anybody’s plan.

Depending on how you interpret the data will depend on how you see the way we are country wise or worldwide! England as our primary example is now in the endemic setting of the pandemic due to cases not dropping massively or rising massively. Hospital admissions are thankfully much lower than they were during the peak. Deaths are not as low as we would like but we are within a winter situation when deaths due to any respiratory virus will be higher than summer and due to the way we test and our aging population is to be expected. Moving forward looking at examples from many other countries and examining their data we should be able to navigate this winter without any intervention. My biggest concern is the loss of carers and possibly NHS staff due to the vaccine mandate! Introduction of masks and vax passports in my opinion would be counter productive and should be avoided! 10million boosters and funding the NHS, getting people back to seeing GPS and keeping the economy going would actually put us in a much better position by spring in my opinion!

@Quartz2208

We are still in the exit wave - there is no exit wave in the summer or winter. It is the same wave. It has always been about stretching it out to a manageable level across a longer period of time bit. Dont try to change what I am saying. Our exit wave has not ended and I dont think we will exit it until Spring at the earliest. It was I think the aim in July. It remains to be seen how it compares to others

You seem to still think there is someway of avoiding all of this - and what do you mean for years? Who exactly in Europe has avoided all of this. And it does need to be Europe because otherwise the comparison doesnt hold true for many reasons already gone over

It's a terrible plan.

It just leads to more chaos, death and economic damage.

And it's not an exit wave.

It's just the current wave.

I don't know how many years of this the tourism industry and hospitality can survive high cases and no mitigations.

Who's going to want to come on holiday to Plague Island where detected cases are consistently among the highest in the world, and REACT, ONS and ZOE indicate that actual cases are higher still?

But that is COVID @PrincessNutNuts you still seem to be of the opinion that there is a way out that isn’t this. So tell me what it is? What Europe country has followed it and succeeded
Germany certainly isn’t seemingly it?
We are not a plague island or anymore we are simply dealing with it as anyone else is

Now what we are doing to the care industry with the mandatory vaccinations could cause horrific implications

PrincessNutNuts

Cases are falling off here and rising in Europe, maybe we will end up being the prime destination

@Whyamistilltired

PrincessNutNuts

Cases are falling off here and rising in Europe, maybe we will end up being the prime destination

I'm not sure that cases are falling in the U.K.

And I don't expect them to fall between now and Christmas. Quite the reverse.

Here's the article that prompted my comment:

Visitor numbers to the UK plummeted from 40.9 million in 2019 to 11.1 million in 2020 -- a dip of 73%.
But 2021 seems to have gone even worse for the UK's inbound tourism sector, with just 7.4 million visitors predicted to visit before the year is out -- down 82% on 2019.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnn.com/travel/amp/uk-tourism-decline-restrictions-cmd/index.html

@Quartz2208

But that is COVID *@PrincessNutNuts* you still seem to be of the opinion that there is a way out that isn’t this. So tell me what it is? What Europe country has followed it and succeeded Germany certainly isn’t seemingly it? We are not a plague island or anymore we are simply dealing with it as anyone else is

Now what we are doing to the care industry with the mandatory vaccinations could cause horrific implications

Some countries are handling covid well.

The U.K. isn't.

We're 11th in the world for covid deaths in the last 7 days, and 3rd in the world for cases.

And our Prime Minister is doing that thing again where he tells the credulous that covid storm clouds are coming here from mainland Europe - so he's definitely been told things are about to get worse.

(I mean of course they are, more indoor contacts = more covid cases = more chaos in education, more hospital admissions and more death. )

I think we might be coming to the end at least for this season. If I look at our friends and family within the last few months we have all had COVID or been very close contacts so likely asymptomatic cases. This will likely protect us from infection at least until well into next year. I strongly suspect it will be a yearly flu like illness now. Sadly I think it has changed how we manage chronic illness and has taken us back decades in their management immunosuppression just doesn't seem an option now.

Hopefully by next year we will be able to stop testing and treat it like a proper flu where you only stay home if your truly ill. The new antiviral coming through seem very promising for the vulnerable

And our Prime Minister is doing that thing again where he tells the credulous that covid storm clouds are coming here from mainland Europe - so he's definitely been told things are about to get worse.

I don't think he means it's literally coming over from Europe, just that the signs of what is to come is clear, and it is apparent already in other countries.

He says he's being utterly frank but I think he needs to be blunter.

“I’m seeing the storm clouds gathering over parts of the European continent. And I’ve got to be absolutely frank with people: we’ve been here before. We remember what happens when the wave starts rolling in,” he said.

Going by many posts on this board, very short memories.

The thing is if we are assuming @PrincessNutNuts as you have said that the reason countries such as Germany/Austria/Netherlands are seeing cases rise is because they have reduced restrictions how will that affect us.

I agree cases are going to rise - Christmas mixing etc but that is based on the case levels we have here not coming in from Europe

And which countries - you keep saying that but you dont actually give examples that would have worked here

@Quartz2208

The thing is if we are assuming *@PrincessNutNuts* as you have said that the reason countries such as Germany/Austria/Netherlands are seeing cases rise is because they have reduced restrictions how will that affect us.

I agree cases are going to rise - Christmas mixing etc but that is based on the case levels we have here not coming in from Europe

And which countries - you keep saying that but you dont actually give examples that would have worked here

The covid dynamic is what is, and what it always has been.

More contacts = more transmission = more time off work, more sick kids, more chaos in education, a plummeting economy, more hospitalisations, and over-stretched health service that can't keep up with its usual work, and more deaths.

Removing NPIs just makes it worse.

Because vaccines can't do it on their own.

And as long as covid is with us we can choose NPIs to control covid or surrender to the virus and have more chaos and death.

They are the only options.

Most countries have handled covid better than us.

The U.K. is consistently in the wrong half of the table for everything.

Anything that countries who have had fewer deaths in 22 months than we've had in the last month are doing is worth looking at in my opinion.

But I'm a "can do" try my best, positive, problem-solving, proactive sort of person.

Not a lazy, defeatist, "can't do attitude" surrender to a virus, sacrifice the lives of hundreds of thousands of our own people sort of person.

So I see things differently to some people on here - and in government.

People don't want any restrictions though, by and large, that's what we always come back to, even if they reduced cases/hospitalisations/deaths. If the majority of people wanted them, we would have them.

Things that don't actually stop people doing anything (improved ventilation, optional home working) might get more support but I think the reality is that the majority just don't agree with your stance.

It's a bit like Brexit!

Presumably though you are talking fewer deaths per population though Princess then presumably Europe - and then realistically decide what is different?

You may not agree with the undulating wave approach but it is what it is - going back is not easy look at The Netherlands.

Or do you want the AUstrian unvaccinated approach

@Quartz2208

Presumably though you are talking fewer deaths per population though Princess then presumably Europe - and then realistically decide what is different?

You may not agree with the undulating wave approach but it is what it is - going back is not easy look at The Netherlands.

Or do you want the AUstrian unvaccinated approach

I always want the same thing.

@Sunshinegirl82

People don't want any restrictions though, by and large, that's what we always come back to, even if they reduced cases/hospitalisations/deaths. If the majority of people wanted them, we would have them.

Things that don't actually stop people doing anything (improved ventilation, optional home working) might get more support but I think the reality is that the majority just don't agree with your stance.

It's a bit like Brexit!

The virus doesn't agree with my stance either.

It's enjoying the government's lazy, defeatist, surrender monkey approach immensely, however.

But it isnt just the Government @PrincessNutNuts at all.

I think from reading your threads and posts what you want is a very logical and rational one (and would be entirely suited to Vulcan for example!). You want a set of measures that keeps COVID at a low level to keep case numbers etc down to reduce disruption and to get us safely through winter and beyond.

It is an approach that most can agree with - the problem I think is that you just see it as the government being lazy - and as I said before on this thread your blinkered approach to it being the government fails to take into account human behaviour and the question of what is acceptable case/hospitalisations and deaths.

I think admirably in fact your idea of what is acceptable isnt the same as what I think maybe others and that is the real crux of the issue. Our approach to have an undulating wave never quite going into exponential growth (unlike other European countries) has become acceptable. Time will see how the deaths/long covid numbers balance out in the approach as it could go either way.

There is an argument that our starting point last year of protecting the NHS has enabled us to collectively accept something that is arguably perhaps unacceptable and that is the fault of the government. The mistakes they made at the beginning of this is still seeping through.

But I am not sure about this

But I'm a "can do" try my best, positive, problem-solving, proactive sort of person.

Not a lazy, defeatist, "can't do attitude" surrender to a virus, sacrifice the lives of hundreds of thousands of our own people sort of person.

Because I think that does blinker your approach that you see everyone else as being lazy and defeatist.

Did someone really still say doom monger?!

@beentoldcomputersaysno

Did someone really still say doom monger?!

Cos it's been sunshine and rainbows for 22 months and how else could you possibly respond to someone who suggests that it might not be over.