Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Bizawit think I got excited but the weekends big drop but true, still down on this time last week!

[quote bluetuesdayy]@Bizawit think I got excited but the weekends big drop but true, still down on this time last week![/quote]
Yeh me too.
It is still a depressingly high number of daily cases 🤦🏼‍♀️. Then again we have been sitting somewhere near this point for months now 🤷🏼‍♀️.

I don't understand the Travelling Tabby graph but think it might just be a very poor and misleading graphic. I've just downloaded two datasets dated today, one from the Coronavirus in the UK website and the other the ONS provisional data for today. Neither gives raw data that corresponds to 3 deaths a week in children, and neither goes beyond October 15th. Since the beginning of 2020, there have been 5 deaths in under 1s, 1 aged 1-4, 8 aged 5-9, 12 aged 10-14 and 38 aged 15-19. Those are total death figures since counting for Covid deaths started. Over the 3 October weeks in the dataset there have been 3 deaths in total of children and young people aged 0-19.

FoI request shows Sheffield tests massively affected by Immensa Lab. Not just an issue confined to one area then.

@bluetuesdayy

43k cases today - are we on the up again? Or this a Wednesday spike?

6k cases down on this day last week. Week on week figures are down by 12k which is great news. Always look for week on week comparisons not day on day.

@Ontopofthesunset

I don't understand the Travelling Tabby graph but think it might just be a very poor and misleading graphic. I've just downloaded two datasets dated today, one from the Coronavirus in the UK website and the other the ONS provisional data for today. Neither gives raw data that corresponds to 3 deaths a week in children, and neither goes beyond October 15th. Since the beginning of 2020, there have been 5 deaths in under 1s, 1 aged 1-4, 8 aged 5-9, 12 aged 10-14 and 38 aged 15-19. Those are total death figures since counting for Covid deaths started. Over the 3 October weeks in the dataset there have been 3 deaths in total of children and young people aged 0-19.

The travelling tabby data is usually very reliable, thank you for going through the different sources and double checking.

Awful awful journalism in the sun today (I know I know its a shit news source). Instead of focusing on the 6k cases down on this day last week or the 4% down week on week. They have come in with.... cases show a huge spike on the 36k cases recorded on..... the 29th of September sparking fears of another lockdown.... they have litterally just picked a random date that had less cases and compared it with today....

I know its lazy journalism but it just winds me up.

@Tuba437

Awful awful journalism in the sun today (I know I know its a shit news source). Instead of focusing on the 6k cases down on this day last week or the 4% down week on week. They have come in with.... cases show a huge spike on the 36k cases recorded on..... the 29th of September sparking fears of another lockdown.... they have litterally just picked a random date that had less cases and compared it with today....

I know its lazy journalism but it just winds me up.

🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️🤦🏼‍♀️ I agree It’s so frustrating!!

Lonely I think it’s hard to get a read on it

I’ve seen very low on here (a poll in particular sticks in my mind from staff), 5% for example. It may be higher though - hard to know, I don’t think anywhere has figures

So cases are going slightly down, and hospitalisations and deaths are still rising.
I wonder of the reduction in cases is to do with school half term? Did not we see this pattern in Scotland, and then once half term was over cases began to rise slowly again?

@julieca hospitalisations are flat,

Deaths lag. Cases only started falling on Sunday.

No both hospitalisations and deaths are up over the last 7 days.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

And yes both hospitalisations and deaths lag. It takes about 2-3 weeks of falling cases to see any difference with these.
But cases falling fits so neatly in with school half term. That surely is a far more likely cause of falling cases?

@julieca well actually hospitalisations are falling.

Again - deaths lag.

@Tuba437

Awful awful journalism in the sun today (I know I know its a shit news source). Instead of focusing on the 6k cases down on this day last week or the 4% down week on week. They have come in with.... cases show a huge spike on the 36k cases recorded on..... the 29th of September sparking fears of another lockdown.... they have litterally just picked a random date that had less cases and compared it with today....

I know its lazy journalism but it just winds me up.

Because the truth is not very exciting - that cases have been around 30k/40k for a few months now with some higher days and some lower. That won't get clicks.

I always look at the trends over 7 days. That graph goes up to the 23rd of October, so not up to date. But even if you compare the days showing fewer hospitalisations near the end of the graph, the numbers recorded as admitted that day were more than the same day a week ago.
Hospitalisations are increasing. Which is exactly what we would expect.

Hospital admissions are still slightly trending increase, but i think it’s fair to say they are fairly flat..

The analyses I’ve read have said half term could be a factor in the falling case numbers, but the drop seems too significant and rapid to be likely to explained by that alone..

@Bizawit

Hospital admissions are still slightly trending increase, but i think it’s fair to say they are fairly flat..

The analyses I’ve read have said half term could be a factor in the falling case numbers, but the drop seems too significant and rapid to be likely to explained by that alone..

Yes cases werenstarting to flatten pre half term anyway. Also half term didn't really effect Scotland numbers which are now falling in line with the rest of the uk

Could it be as simple as its running out of people to infect?

For example, in my sons class of 28 (yr5) almost 20 kids tested postive within a 4 week period and then nothing since then. Dont know why the 8 didn't test positive but they managed to dodge it for one reason or another

No reason why similar scenarios haven't been happening all over, is there?

Hospitalisations are up 14.4% over 7 days trend. I wouldn't call that flat. Again there is a lag, so that is not surprising. Deaths are up 5.9% over 7 days trend. I suspect deaths will continue to rise before falling again.
The real question is whether cases will continue to fall. If we look at 7-day trends, it only started to fall about a week ago.
It might be a mixture of half term, but also vaccinations of teenagers, plus the sheer number of children catching covid.

Hospital data on the dashboard front page haven't been updated since 23rd October...

Yes that is true.

I believe Thursdays are when hospital data from all 4 nations are collated and released so we would need to wait til then for the latest figures and 7 day average

@julieca

Hospitalisations are up 14.4% over 7 days trend. I wouldn't call that flat. Again there is a lag, so that is not surprising. Deaths are up 5.9% over 7 days trend. I suspect deaths will continue to rise before falling again. The real question is whether cases will continue to fall. If we look at 7-day trends, it only started to fall about a week ago. It might be a mixture of half term, but also vaccinations of teenagers, plus the sheer number of children catching covid.

Ah yes sorry the graph I shared was just for England, which is only up 6% the last 7 days. Even uk as a whole the last few days seem to have flattened slowed so 🤞🏻🤞🏻

@Bordois

Could it be as simple as its running out of people to infect?

For example, in my sons class of 28 (yr5) almost 20 kids tested postive within a 4 week period and then nothing since then. Dont know why the 8 didn't test positive but they managed to dodge it for one reason or another

No reason why similar scenarios haven't been happening all over, is there?

I don’t know if cases will rise after half term if there’s any left to get Covid but at some point soon this is likely. If not already

Those 8 have likely had it already (asymptomatically or not)