Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

a few days off school

I wouldn’t use this for ten days isolation I think it downplays it. Also feeling well is ok to use.

Anyone who centres children in this is in my good books but I also wonder how many do get tested asymptomatically atm. Primary don’t need to do LFT, what proportion of secondary, not sure if there’s data on that. It may well dwindle over time as so many students will have had Covid recently the need reduces, for a while, then change may be brought in early next year, for example

Careful marsha, I'm sure you don't mean to but you make me sound like I don't centre things on the children! I am not convinced Pollard has the evidence to speak of psychological harms. As I said, I want to see his evidence. 10 days is quite a lot, yes, but lots of parents don't blink at 10 days off for holidays, occasional days for birthday and Christmas shopping etc.. Isolation following a positive PCR test is rarely 10 missed school days. Average is about 6.

Asymptomatic spread is meant to be a concern, hence lateral flows.

After so much missed time I think it’s worth considering

I wasn’t really commenting on anyone on here more re spokespeople in general, I can remember the few times in this pandemic children have been centred in this way - Chris Whitty, JCVI and Pollard - probably some others I’ve forgotten

I wonder how many are currently doing LFT in secondary? I’ve noticed posts that say very few (one pp had a poll) I think it will drop as so many will have had recent positives. We’ve had a recent positive I think the landscape will change post winter, we’ll see of course

I should split that to

• number doing LFT regularly to check for asymptomatic
• v people using LFT when they have symptoms

As people might drift towards the latter

Equally, not wanting continued spread in children and in the community via children could be seen to be child centred. The testing is literally the only mitigation.

Deepti Gurdasani could just as easily be said to be child centred.

I don’t know their views that well, I don’t do Twitter and I think that is one of their main platforms. But I don’t think so. Missing school isn’t in the children’s best interests.

Chicago shows what happens when children don’t have stronger voices on their side. 18 months out, for state at least

Plus Chris Whitty talked about impact on children of isolation when advising on vaccine post JCVI decision

At last recognition of it even if it doesn’t stop much infection (30k, but only one model)

She doesn't advocate missing school : no one does. She, and others, call for better mitigations to protect against this. Stopping testing seems a lazy way of doing it when we could just aim to make schools safer. They are, after all, workplaces.

Chris Whitty also never provided evidence. Of all people to get away with anecdata!

Yes that’s been talked about a lot on mn but I don’t think it’s the direction.

People might do it if not a recent case, voluntarily for winter, but we’ll see what happens by next Spring

Do you support the vaccination decision still? Re Chris Whitty

I always thought children should be vaccinated. Chris Whitty didn't make me think this. In my mind, he is partly culpable of allowing all the vacillation so that the decision was delayed. And suggesting schools should be vaccine centres was always ill judged.

Why do you support it if not for the reason of the impact on children’s education?

I don't understand. That is one of the reasons but also mitigating against spread.

You mentioned not believing Chris Whitty when he said isolation impacted negatively on children.

It was his main reason to change from JCVI

So I wondered why you were for vaccination even if what he said didn’t ring true

No, I just wanted the evidence. I think Chris Whitty said that as one of his reasons. It was never seen to be acceptable to say that children spread to adults or that children being vaccinated protects adult populations. I don't have a problem with that concept. I think children being jabbed is part of a range of measures to protect their education. And it should have been done by now.

I don't think he said a one off isolation had a huge impact. He said jabs would help to make it less likely. They have said too many contradictory things about schools to be completely credible on the issue of education in itself.

It was the main reason - lower impact on education so I do think it was billed to lower this

And to stop just ten days per child. Well, 30k of them, oversold it imo as it won’t stop much

I found it annoying as finally the talk of harm due to isolation, when for 18months pretty much minimised

I don't think it was. It's been talked about loads but was overshadowed by discussion of school closures. The close contact isolation was stopped because of this, even though they remain a largely unvaccinated population. School absence because of covid continues to rise so you can see now why some people think the only answer is to stop isolation/ testing altogether , at least for allegedly asymptomatic children. Any peek at other threads would show a hot debate around what constitutes symptomatic.

I don’t agree re proportionate discussion but it doesn’t matter.

Tbh it can dwindle if people decide not to do it, how many regularly test now

@Ontopofthesunset

The data I just downloaded shows 2 deaths in the under 15s in October to date and 2 in the 15-24s. Where is the data showing 3 deaths a week in children?

Here is the graph of English weekly deaths by age for the last 30 days, from the travelling tabby website (linked above). The data source is on the bottom of the graph.

I still fail to understand how that shows 3 child deaths a week? But perhaps I am missing something.

I presume these are deaths within 28 days of a positive test?

43k cases today - are we on the up again? Or this a Wednesday spike?

@MarshaBradyo

I don’t agree re proportionate discussion but it doesn’t matter.

Tbh it can dwindle if people decide not to do it, how many regularly test now

I think you'd be surprised by how many people test regularly when cases around them are high. In the few weeks before half term, even many primary children at my school were being tested on lfts by their families because we had so many cases.

@bluetuesdayy

43k cases today - are we on the up again? Or this a Wednesday spike?

So that still constitutes a fall in the seven day rolling average. Wednesdays tend to be high. Last Wednesday reported around 49k. It Would be good to see numbers falling faster, but we are still overall moving in the right direction. 🤞🏻