Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The other big question mark is reinfection rate. I have caught it again. I don't know how many people will.

Those 8 have likely had it already (asymptomatically or not)

Yes, that's my suspicion too. Given how infectious delta is, thats my suspicion too. Same with my husband and daughter - neither of them tested postive when my son and I both had it. My daughter is a toddler and my husband is, well, my husband, so both of them would have been in very close contact with me when I was infectious.

@julieca

The other big question mark is reinfection rate. I have caught it again. I don't know how many people will.

Oh wow. Did you test positive twice?

James Ward made an interesting point on twitter - we don't really want cases to drop too low now as it could result in another spike in Jan/Feb time which would be bad news as it would coincide with peak flu.

I wonder if we will see these spikes in Western Europe considering how low their recorded cases are at the moment?

That was the plan re avoiding flu peak to have it now.

Reinfection rates are low - but does anyone know the process for recording them?

@Bizawit I had classic covid symptoms in March 2020 when you could not get a test. And I am pretty sure I know where I caught it. I have now tested positive.

I guess some of the increased case numbers before half term were due to re-testing following the Wolverhampton lab debacle - I know people around here had texts to re-test 16/17 Oct, so part of that could why we're seeing number decline.

Hopefully we'll see a further reduction in case numbers due to schools being closed.

Also, I live in one of the south west areas with high case numbers - there's a very high number wearing masks again (only five in Tescos without a mask yesterday including children), distancing on pavements and quite a lot of people I know are looking at the safer options for getting together. Hope that's happening in other affected south west boroughs and it'll bring the cases down a little further.

@herecomesthsun

If you compare the UK with Eastern Europe, some countries do have higher cases than us, if you compare with Germany and France our cases and deaths are a lot higher.

We did very well with vaccine roll out initially, but delayed offering vaccine to teenagers, and then rolled that out comparatively slowly.

Getting boosters to more vulnerable people will be key if vaccine waning is becoming a significant issue.

That is not a fair comparison. Most eastern european countries are about 20 years into a long transitional period into democracy and capitalism, and things are actively going sideways in most countries. Their HC systems are notoriously underfunded, even more than here, the HC infrastructure is lacking in so many ways.....

One thing some of them have done good on: vaccinate more kids prior to school actually starting. And yet many schools are already online (in Hungary and Romania, and fewer in Bulgaria).

Comparison should be western countries.

@ThereIsAGreenHillFarAway

If you compare the UK with Eastern Europe, some countries do have higher cases than us, if you compare with Germany and France our cases and deaths are a lot higher

Talking of Germany, I usually follow Worldometer for looking at figures but they've only reported cases for Germany for the past four days, zero deaths. Their cases figures don't match their source figures either, for instance Worldometer reported 20,995 cases yesterday. Linking through their source, Tagesspiegel, only 15,636 cases are reported but they also report 102 deaths. Quite a discrepancy if comparing figures from different countries.

Is there anyone in Germany or who scan point me to a better webpage for their stats?

German Robert Koch Insitiut: experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

@Bordois
I wonder if we will see these spikes in Western Europe considering how low their recorded cases are at the moment?

as a blanket statement that is not accurate at all. It's quite worrying in that region in general.

Poland, Czechs, - doing ok, started rising though
Romania/Bulgaria - record no of cases, both HC systems overwhelmed and looking at neighbouring countries to take over ICU patients. Romania more so, with already having access to more than 50 ICU beds in HU.
Ukraine, Serbia, Latvia, Estonia - higher than ever
Hungary - god knows. Anecdata from friends and colleagues - cases are rocketng, official numbers are just rising slightly now
Belarus - never went down (than again that is no surprise when tractors are of more importance to the supreme leader than lives...))
Slovenia, Lithuania, Moldova, Albania: in the middle of their respective waves

lonelyplanet Agree, lft reporting increases at my MAT as cases increase in school.

@Regulus

lonelyplanet Agree, lft reporting increases at my MAT as cases increase in school.

Do you mean number of positives you hear about or do you see overall LFTs taken?

Do any other countries do twice weekly LFT for school age?

Thanks for the link thesunisstillshining really useful.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Bordois
I wonder if we will see these spikes in Western Europe considering how low their recorded cases are at the moment?

as a blanket statement that is not accurate at all. It's quite worrying in that region in general.

Poland, Czechs, - doing ok, started rising though
Romania/Bulgaria - record no of cases, both HC systems overwhelmed and looking at neighbouring countries to take over ICU patients. Romania more so, with already having access to more than 50 ICU beds in HU.
Ukraine, Serbia, Latvia, Estonia - higher than ever
Hungary - god knows. Anecdata from friends and colleagues - cases are rocketng, official numbers are just rising slightly now
Belarus - never went down (than again that is no surprise when tractors are of more importance to the supreme leader than lives...))
Slovenia, Lithuania, Moldova, Albania: in the middle of their respective waves[/quote]
I was talking about Western Europe - France, Germany, Spain, etc.

Yes, we are already seeing spikes in most of the Western European countries. They are behind the UK along the pandemic curve but the trajectories appear very similar. The trend is particularly visible on a logarithmic scale.

Aren’t numbers of tests taken showing that there hasn’t (yet) been less testing because of half term?

Wow Belgium are really spiking. Iirc they had a really bad second wave too?

[quote julieca]@Bizawit I had classic covid symptoms in March 2020 when you could not get a test. And I am pretty sure I know where I caught it. I have now tested positive.[/quote]
Wishing you a speedy recovery!

Thanks.

@JanglyBeads

Aren’t numbers of tests taken showing that there hasn’t (yet) been less testing because of half term?

The testing looks down slightly on the dashboard but I'm not sure about the difference between ocr and lft.

Thanks lonely, I was too tired to go and look last night.
There is also the point that not everyone’s half terms coincide/ last for just a week.

Here is some modelling from Imperial College

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/231336/what-expected-covid-19-this-winter/?utm_medium=email&fbclid=IwAR3e9NXwR5npmQQK7wVNfsDXJEfu7XsXICvlmcAsUbAUoJA27UQAG3eWTnU

HomeCollege and CampusScienceEngineeringHealthBusiness
Search here...
What can be expected of COVID-19 this winter?
by Dr Sabine L. van Elsland
22 October 2021
COVID-19 vaccine vial colliding with SARS-CoV-2 particle
COVID-19 winter projections

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The UK is likely to face a substantial wave of COVID-19 infections, hospitalisations and deaths this winter, new modelling suggests.

Even with a booster vaccination programme in place, up to 100 thousand people could be hospitalised with COVID-19 between now and March 2022, under the most pessimistic scenario according to the report by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team, which was released today by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M). However, deaths are projected to be approximately ten-fold lower, reflecting the sustained high level of protection provided by all vaccines against the most severe forms of COVID-19 related disease.

Winter 2021-22
While vaccination has dramatically reduced the risk of hospitalisation and death, our projections suggest the NHS could still be put under very severe strain in the coming weeks or months
Prof Neil Ferguson
The report summarises the modelling of twelve scenarios of potential COVID-19 pandemic trajectories for this autumn and winter, describing infections, hospitalisations, and deaths. These scenarios take into consideration different contact rates, waning of natural and vaccine induced protection, implementation and effectiveness of booster vaccines, and vaccination of 12-15 year olds.

Current COVID-19 case numbers are higher than this time last year and contact rates are gradually increasing to pre-pandemic levels. This may lead to a significant peak in case numbers over the 2021-2022 winter period. Adding to normal winter pressures, this growing epidemic wave may mean decisions could again have to be made about how to prioritize hospital care.

Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios
In the more optimistic scenario, current levels of protection in the population combined with the delivery of boosters should maintain the epidemic at levels similar to or lower than currently observed. This is projected to result in into 43 thousand hospital admissions (95% credible interval: 23 to 72 thousand) and 5 thousand deaths (95% credible interval: 3 to 8 thousand) between now and March 2022.

Under pessimistic assumptions around contact patterns and the extent and duration of immunity, the team projected up to 100 thousand hospitalisations (95% credible interval: 60 to 146 thousand) and 10 thousand deaths (95% credible interval: 6 to 14 thousand) over the same time period.

Even the pessimistic scenario averages out at about 55 deaths a day - that's encouraging.

@herecomesthsun

Even the pessimistic scenario averages out at about 55 deaths a day - that's encouraging.

"In the more optimistic scenario, current levels of protection in the population combined with the delivery of boosters should maintain the epidemic at levels similar to or lower than currently observed."

I took it to mean that the best case scenario would be a continuation of what we have now - around 800 hospitalisations and 200 deaths per day providing that over 12s get vaccinated and everyone gets boosters.