Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Notmulan

Seeing similar confusion in my area which is east of England . Positive lft negative pcr. I hope this isn’t what it causing the current decline . I’d like it to be genuine

LFTs positives are also falling so it won’t be this.

There aren't really many mitigations in place in the under 18s

Exactly, there's one testing and isolation if positive, and any personal change in behaviour, but given kids have to go to school that can't be that big.

So what's reducing R down to less than 1.2, that's low enough that previously it's required closing indoor mixing? It seems strange to me.

I don't follow @wintertravel1980. What on the graph indicates the growth is not just driven by schools? Sorry my eyesight is not great so I may not be reading it right. Wouldn't the adult cases be through household transmission from schools plus school staff?

only went up to September 27th

Whilst the absolute numbers weren't high until then, the R rate should've been reflected in the period from schools being open until then, in fact it should be higher as now we have the further mitigation of more existing immunity from recent infection.

@wintertravel1980

…so it missed the rapid growth over the last month and isn't a good reflection of the current situation in under 18s…

In fact, most of the rapid growth in cases in under 18s largely happened prior to September 27 (as per the light blue line in the attached graph). Some regions and local authorities (e.g. SW) lagged behind but at a nation level the growth over past few weeks was not just driven by children.

What we have seen recently must’ve been more than just school related spread. I initially thought it was the “Bond effect” but a more plausible hypothesis is that it was the result of weather change and increase in indoor socialisation across all age groups.

I suppose I was thinking of the year 7- year 11s on the ONS graph here, though last week's version looked more bumpy.

Wouldn't the adult cases be through household transmission from schools plus school staff?

Yes, unfortunately, it’s not a great graph (I am not as good with graphs as boys3 so I have to copy them from random but trusted sources). However what it does show (in my personal opinion) is that the patterns in transmissions in older groups changed from September to October. In September the trend was predictable - infections in kids caused gentle but slow increase in parents age group (40-49), exactly as expected.

However, the pattern changed on October 3. From that date on, the growth across all older groups (including 20-24 year olds) picked up speed simultaneously. It is unlikely that many families across the whole country held multigenerational parties on Sep 30 with schoolchildren infecting parents, grandparents and older 20 year old siblings. Most likely, there was another factor at play. In retrospect, the change looks like a one-off behavioural shift (increase in socialisation across all age groups). We saw similar trends previously and many of them were weather related.

Could it not just be the continuing transmission of school cases? I don't think there would have to be a superspreading event to cause these increases but more of the build up of infections to start to show up. Some will be positive after 2-3 days but others could be 10 days later or more. It can take weeks of gradual rising rates before the whammy. We saw this in previous waves but thankfully vaccines are currently holding back the exponential growth of hard to control cases in adults we previously had.

@sirfredfredgeorge

In the under-18 group, the reproductive number R was 1.18

I don't get this, how is it so low, what mitigations were in place in under 18's that should get it this low, if in person isolation alone reduces it this much?

The main mitigation is probably immunity from previous infections

Ooh... looky looky

Today's death figures 263 (including an average of 3 children a week during October).

twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1453069455148429313

The papers also reported today that more pregnant women have died in this wave (13) than in the first and second.

[quote lonelyplanet]Today's death figures 263 (including an average of 3 children a week during October).

twitter.com/TravellingTabby/status/1453069455148429313[/quote]
I can't find the data for the number of child deaths in October, would it be possible to link please? Thanks

This graph is being shared on my fb page and I'm not sure how to counter it. I thought we were doing ok with vaccine immunity?
The fb comments accompanying the graph talk of recklessness in the government to see what happens in the population.

I thought we were past all that and hospital figures were positive on the whole. Is this wishful thinking?

If you compare the UK with Eastern Europe, some countries do have higher cases than us, if you compare with Germany and France our cases and deaths are a lot higher.

We did very well with vaccine roll out initially, but delayed offering vaccine to teenagers, and then rolled that out comparatively slowly.

Getting boosters to more vulnerable people will be key if vaccine waning is becoming a significant issue.

Worryingly, if Leicester/Leicestershire (half term last week) are a predictor for the figures for the majority returning after half term it’s looking like a spike upwards again. Hopefully, this is a short upward ‘blip’ due to more testing but this trend may replicate across the country next week.

Leicester, Oadby & Wigston, Hinckley & Bosworth, Harborough, Blaby, North West Leicestershire, Charnwood. Just Melton bucking the trend.

East Midlands figures reported yesterday from
@avds Twitter account
https://twitter.com/avds/status/1453124277797019654?s=21

If you compare the UK with Eastern Europe, some countries do have higher cases than us, if you compare with Germany and France our cases and deaths are a lot higher

Talking of Germany, I usually follow Worldometer for looking at figures but they've only reported cases for Germany for the past four days, zero deaths. Their cases figures don't match their source figures either, for instance Worldometer reported 20,995 cases yesterday. Linking through their source, Tagesspiegel, only 15,636 cases are reported but they also report 102 deaths. Quite a discrepancy if comparing figures from different countries.

Is there anyone in Germany or who scan point me to a better webpage for their stats?

I can't find the data for the number of child deaths in October, would it be possible to link please? Thanks

Data files here:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/deaths

The data I just downloaded shows 2 deaths in the under 15s in October to date and 2 in the 15-24s. Where is the data showing 3 deaths a week in children?

@Ontopofthesunset

The data I just downloaded shows 2 deaths in the under 15s in October to date and 2 in the 15-24s. Where is the data showing 3 deaths a week in children?

Yes, I couldn't find it either.

There were two reported yesterday iirc.

I think it is easy for Pollard to say that marsha. They seem to have moved on from saying no SI for contacts to now saying no SI even if infected (I noticed he said they were 'well'. You aren't well if you have a virus. I need evidence that a) asymptomatic spread is not the issue they have been saying it is and b) there is a huge psychological impact associated with a few days off school before I'll buy into this idea. Especially if they say asymptomatic adults will need to continue isolating. Children do not operate in isolation from adults.

@Piggywaspushed the fact that children do not operate in isolation from adults means that some asymptomatic children not only isolate for their 10 days but longer if the adult in their life then tests positive.

No , they only isolate now if they are the positive one.

@Piggywaspushed

No , they only isolate now if they are the positive one.

Not really, if the parents are isolating often kids then isolate by default.

Yes but they aren't meant to, so that isn't really the point of what I posted which referenced yet another potential moving of goalposts in schools and Pollard's unchallenged statements.