Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Isn't she one of the discredited Indie Sage mob?

Nice to see such measured and objective opinion expressed on here.

Can we not turn the data thread into people that you follow subtweeting , throwing shade or bitching about other scientists and/or vice versa?

Talking about the model posted earlier on R4 atm

@containsnuts

Depends how long it stays like that though. There's nothing in place to bring it down this time. 900+ per day for an extended period is a problem.

Well, no. Her figures are completely wrong - whatever happens going forward doesn't change that.

Which one marsha? The 5k by December one?

@Piggywaspushed

Can we not turn the data thread into people that you follow subtweeting , throwing shade or bitching about other scientists and/or vice versa?

Sure, point taken, but nobody should be posting Indie Sage people as if they were neutral or useful voices. Might as well post Laurence Fox or Piers Corbyn who are at other demented but parallel poles.

The Hygiene and Tropical Medicine one - I didn’t hear 5k but it’s a bit noisy here I’d probably have to re listen to get a good sense of it, but if anyone is interested they had a couple of scientists talking about it

[quote JanglyBeads]Zubaida Haque -

This time last year there was enormous pressure on the government bec hospitalisations had⬆️to ~1400/week and deaths⬆️to ~250/week. A year later, we have over 3x rate of hospital admissions and deaths with covid. And that's with #CovidVaccines. How has this been allowed in UK?

twitter.com/zubhaque/status/1452665435887915012?s=21[/quote]
The big issue here is were at completely different stages of the pandemic. Those dates last year were at the start of a wave. The dates this year look like they are at the peak of the wave so not a fair comparison.

This the issue, while we keep having restrictions we will keep making artificial waves. Whereas if this wave has naturally peak due to high levels of immunity then future waves should be much smaller. Every time we bring numbers down artificially we drag the whole thing out longer.

Don't be ridiculous , please. Piers Corbyn and Laurence Fox are not scientists.

Also, at least one member of Indie Sage is on Sage...

@MarshaBradyo

The Hygiene and Tropical Medicine one - I didn’t hear 5k but it’s a bit noisy here I’d probably have to re listen to get a good sense of it, but if anyone is interested they had a couple of scientists talking about it

Yes, that's the 5k by Christmas modelling . I'd definitely like to see the actual data and what it hangs on.

@Bordois "Well, no. Her figures are completely wrong - whatever happens going forward doesn't change that."

Yes, but the point I wanted to make was that we might be looking at lower numbers but for a longer period of time which is still not great. Less people in hospital at once is good but it's potentially still huge numbers overall. Doesn't take away from the fact that things are much better than previous waves.

Did anone notice we had the 5th (or 8th, can't remember) highest daily case count on Oct. 18 - for all of the pandemic.
But everything is fine.....

oct 16, 2021 - hosp. 7day avg: 961
in 2020: 1031

deaths same day, 2021: 122

2020: 151

Yes, the numbers are lower this year a bit.
But if you take into consideration that 79% of the eligible pop is vaccinated it is should be much lower. imo.

Containsnuts a possible reason for half term not showing a significant drop in Scotland is that the whole of Scotland does not have their October holiday at the same time. Think it's from when it was the tattie holiday, making use of kids to harvest potatoes. Some areas have the second week of October, some the third week, some both weeks and some private schools are off this week as well.
Also, although there's been a huge catch up in the amount of natural immunity, from the September peak, I don't know if it's equal to some areas of England, hit hard at the start and in January.

Cases were a lot lower in October last year - 7 day average on 26th oct was 21,561 and is currently 45,627. So we are seeing a lot less people hospitalised and dying despite more that double the cases.

*more than double

@Bordois

Cases were a lot lower in October last year - 7 day average on 26th oct was 21,561 and is currently 45,627. So we are seeing a lot less people hospitalised and dying despite more that double the cases.

okay. But.... what if we didn't let the numbers skyrocket by implementing easy, not too costly counter measures? Happy that the ratio is much smaller, but these numbers are still very high. unnecessarily high.

Well, we didn't, so...🤷‍♀️

(not going any further into the circular debate about counter measures as its been done to death on a zillion other threads, and this one is to discuss actual data)

I am sure that Indie Sage members are “real” scientists but so is Carl Heneghan (who refused to believe in the second wave up until it hit and hit hard).

The problem with some scientists on both ends of the spectrum is that they become so attached and emotionally invested in their models and forecasts that they refuse to see facts and analyse real time data.

I still follow Christina Pagel on twitter since she is (i) clearly smart, (ii) one of the more reasonable members of Indie Sage and (iii) I like hearing diverse views. However it never stops to amaze me how often she misses very obvious data points because they do not seem to fit into her own version of the world. For instance, on July 19 she suggested that we tighten restrictions and go back to Stage 2 of the government roadmap. By that time, we could already see that we were passed the Euro peak and cases began to fall.

I do feel we are turning another corner this week (in fact, the greenshoots of hope were already visible last week) so again it is ironic that people started to call for restrictions now rather than 2 weeks ago, when cases unexpectedly jumped by 13-15% week on week. Back then I thought it was due to the “Bond effect” but in retrospect it could have been a one time shift driven by colder weather and increased socialisation indoors.

Let us see what happens to the numbers this week. There will be some half-term effect leading to decrease in testing but it will still be clear if cases are falling or rising.

mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1452677871374422016

And, I guess, it may be worth making another point.

It is impossible to have endemic Covid with low prevalence and low level restrictions. The level of endemic transmission is driven by two factors: (1) virus transmissibility - which, as we know, is very high for Delta and (2) speed of immunity waning.

Low level restrictions (e.g. masks) do not significantly impact (1). The latest SAGE documents published last week still suggest masks might reduce transmission by about 10%. The famous RCT from Bangladesh has produced a very similar result (9-12%).

When Covid eventually becomes fully endemic, with the current level of vaccine efficacy, we will continue seeing tens of thousands cases per day. The estimates I have seen range from 20,000 (Francois Balloux - symptomatic cases) to 45,000 (Paul Hunter). There will be an element of seasonality so numbers in winter will be higher than in summer but 20,000-50,000 is probably a reasonable ballpark estimate. The version of the world where Covid is circulating at very low levels (500-1,000-5,000 cases per day) is simply not feasible unless we see another vaccine miracle.

I think that point about what it means to have endemic covid is why the new modelling that suggests there'll only be around 5,000 daily cases in December is so hard to understand. It would suggest a significant level of herd immunity would be required and I thought that isn't possible?

I guess it may be possible to temporarily go down to 5,000 cases per day if we achieve a so called HIT “overshoot” by accelerating boosters and infecting too many schoolchildren in autumn.

However the 5,000 level would be a blip (highly unlikely blip, in my personal non-science based opinion) and cases would go back up once vaccine and natural immunity starts waning.

Stephen Reicher is on Indie Sage. Oft quoted and cited on here. Susan Michie is on SAGE as well as Indie Sage....

Please add the weekly Vaccine Surveillance Reports from PHE

COVID-19 vaccine weekly surveillance reports (weeks 39 to 42)

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-vaccine-weekly-surveillance-reports

Additionally, the Public Health Scotland data on deaths within 21 days of vaccine. It hasn't been updated for a bit for some reason.

Deaths Section Supplementary Table

publichealthscotland.scot/media/9193/deaths-section-supplementary-table_v3.xlsx