Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@julieca

It is a Monday, cases always drop today. Lets wait and see for tomorrow.

Well they are down 13k on last Monday

A small correction - it’s deaths that drop on Mondays.

Cases drop on Tuesdays.

I think the data on cases and deaths is missing from Wales. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new/record/85d59206-e94c-4fd0-833a-72fc57f2919c

@julieca

It is a Monday, cases always drop today. Lets wait and see for tomorrow.

Actually for date reported Monday is usually quite high, Sundays and Tuesdays are low.

Yes, Wales is missing but even England’s numbers are down from 39,473 reported on 18/10 to 33,309 reported today.

Okay I hope it is falling.
But we have been here before. I never take notice of one days cases and deaths but the overall trend.

@julieca the overall trend is a slowing in growth and then a drop.

It's too early to get too excited but I am feeling hopeful and also trying to not be too hopeful!

@ILookAtTheFloor

Half term this week in England (for most, as far as I know) will mean fewer tests carried out. So not entirely unexpected.

Scottish schools going back this week after the break. Seems that schools being out didn't cause a dramatic drop in cases as expected - it's held pretty stable over that time. Any ideas why?

Young people are the one age group identified as mixing at present pandemic levels. This will drop off at half term but , looking at MN, they are still mixing. Last year, the half term was more of a circuit break because lots of places were still closed and travel was curtailed.

The difference in rates at the moment between London and elsewhere is quite bizarre.

In my inner London ward, vaccination rates are 57.6% with two doses. Case rate to 20th Oct is just 102.8 per 100,000.

I have family in Bedfordshire. Where they are, 76.8% have two doses. Yet the rate is 676.1 per 100,000!

Piggy and Halloween was pretty much cancelled last yr. 🎃
It's the one comment my NDN made when saying then needed the 10 day break away from the kids to try to get some staff back into school they've an INSET tagged on

@Piggywaspushed

Young people are the one age group identified as mixing at present pandemic levels. This will drop off at half term but , looking at MN, they are still mixing. Last year, the half term was more of a circuit break because lots of places were still closed and travel was curtailed.

Good point but that could be good news meaning less chance of a spike when they go back. Time will tell.

Yes, I guess so. Time will indeed tell!

Zubaida Haque -

This time last year there was enormous pressure on the government bec hospitalisations had⬆️to ~1400/week and deaths⬆️to ~250/week. A year later, we have over 3x rate of hospital admissions and deaths with covid. And that's with #CovidVaccines. How has this been allowed in UK?

twitter.com/zubhaque/status/1452665435887915012?s=21

Isn't she one of the discredited Indie Sage mob?

www.bmj.com/content/375/bmj.n2504

[quote JanglyBeads]Zubaida Haque -

This time last year there was enormous pressure on the government bec hospitalisations had⬆️to ~1400/week and deaths⬆️to ~250/week. A year later, we have over 3x rate of hospital admissions and deaths with covid. And that's with #CovidVaccines. How has this been allowed in UK?

twitter.com/zubhaque/status/1452665435887915012?s=21[/quote]
Um, those figures seem way out. On 25th oct last year the 7 day average for admissions was 1400. Currently its 961

Just to add to the wrongness, the death figures are way out too. 250 7 day average this time last year, currently is 122

I just saw something about the hospitalisations, will look again.

In what way have I iSAGE been discredited? Complaints have been made about biases, yes, but any more than members of SAGE??

China postpones Beijing marathon after surge of cases clicky link.

China has reported more than 133 cases across 11 provinces so far. All of them have been linked to the highly transmissible Delta variant.

Is that all? we had half that in one area in Cheshire at the weekend.🤦‍♀️

They aren't discredited . There are some entirely credible and creditable scientists on Indie Sage. I am afraid calling them a 'mob' reveals your own bias.

Any quote coming from Prof Mark Woolhouse makes one rather think of those people in glasshouses...

In the interest of transparency, I think it is important to know who Dr Raghib Ali is

www.conservativehome.com/tag/raghib-ali

Depends how long it stays like that though. There's nothing in place to bring it down this time. 900+ per day for an extended period is a problem.

Was replying to @Bordois

Maybe it's just me but I think it's a better idea to listen to the analysts who have been consistently right, not those who are consistently "right-on".