Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Bordois that’s good to hear

I’m really hoping some pressure is being let out now, it’ll put us in a better place for winter

Same, Marshall. Fingers crossed that we have come through the worst of it now 🤞

Marsha

Another 20% drop in cases compared to this day last week. 40,077 down to 32,322

Wow! Number is hospital is just under 9k now, down from over 9.5k!

I don't want to be too hopeful but whatever happens in the future, this is a much better starting point!

Why do we think such a difference between France / Spain / Italy and most of the rest of Europe? No particularly fast increase yet coming out of the "latin" countries, but the most of the east at their peak or rising very fast?

Restrictions don't seem too similar between France and Germany say - although I see Germany is a bit more devolved so could be regional variations, but not sure if there's anything other than timing to say why.

sirfred - I am afraid it is only a matter of time and there is high risk France/Spain and Italy might eventually follow Northern European countries. In fact, if we look at case trends on the log scale, we are already seeing early spikes.

Certain parts of Italy (e.g. Lombardy), Spain and Portugal will have higher levels of acquired immunity that - say - Germany so they may do “better” than other countries/regions. However, I will be pleasantly surprised if any European/Western country will manage to completely vaccinate itself out of the Delta wave.

I am afraid it is only a matter of time and there is high risk France/Spain and Italy might eventually follow Northern European countries

I don't doubt that, but I am wondering about the timing, why aren't they in the same timing as others, we had a good reason for us being earlier, we opened up earlier.

What's delaying it? Is it possibly something that is also potentially suppressing cases here and it's not acquired immunity on top of vaccination that's turned our cases down but something else? Weather can have that split this time of year?

Rhinovirus was thought to be responsible for suppression here in 2020, different weather could have it persisting elsewhere?

Hello MRex, long time no post!

This is interesting re transmission

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.05.21265712v1

If today follows similar patter we should be looking around 25-27k cases today which would be great too see.

33k today which is disappointing....

Did anyone record what they were this time last week? I didn't. Sorry!

33865 yesterday. Not a brilliant drop

33k last week, although it was a bigger fall than expected and was balanced by probably more than expected on the Monday/Wednesday so it might just be timing of testing.

LFD's certainly higher today than recently.

Anxious to see what tomorrow's case numbers are now!

Last Tuesday seemed very low compared to Mon / Wed.

Wed is normally the peak day and last week was ~41k. I don't think it will be as high as that tomorrow.

However I don't think its unreasonable to expect the decline in cases to slow down now that schools have been back for over a week.

Looking, for England, at specimen date rather than reporting date we would see that today 25,475 cases were added for the last three days. Last Tuesday the figure was 27,493.

Taking spec dates between 4 and 10 days old 1694 cases added today. Equivalent for last Tuesday was 704.

If we went to spec dates more than 10 days old we’d find a further, though much smaller, differential.

Sticking with England Friday 5th stands at 23505, 28% lower than the equivalent point last week.

Saturday 6th stands at 20917 20% lower than equivalent last week

Sunday 7th stands at 23047, 14% lower.

First day figures only for yesterday Monday 8th, so a big caveat before drawing too many conclusions, nevertheless at this early stage close to 6% lower than equivalent last week.

Doubtlessly some vagaries in cases being reported through.

Devon councils had 168 cases reported this time last week for Monday 1st. 338 reported today for yesterday.

Conversely the North East some 450 cases lower for yesterday.

London around 5% higher, ditto North West.

Thanks @boys3 - so possible % of decline has been decreasing for a week and we could be on the up again soon?

Well, the massive drops weren't going to go on forever I suppose, but any continued drop is good news! Hospital stats still looking better and hopefully we will se a drop in deaths pretty soon.

Graph on a log scale of cases by age. Creeping up again in all but over 65s.

lonelyplanet How are all the age groups bar over 65's growing but cases falling overall? The cases in the over 65's are simply too small a proportion of the case population. Seems dubious?

I'm not sure. Data link here:
sonorouschocolate.com/covid19/index.php?title=CasesByAge

@sirfredfredgeorge

lonelyplanet How are all the age groups bar over 65's growing but cases falling overall? The cases in the over 65's are simply too small a proportion of the case population. Seems dubious?

sirfred it seems to be based on daily cases, not a seven day rate and goes up to Sunday 7th - which is only on its second day of reporting. Before we get into who might be more likely to test on a Sunday........

We then have:

The numbers in each age band are adjusted/corrected for their incompleteness, then corrected for day-of-week biases, in both cases, as far as possible, in a non-laggy way.

The methodology for the process of adjusting / correcting for incompleteness is not stated.

non-laggy is of course a specific technical term.

not by age and all a bit simple but seven day average cases in England since end of September and weekly movement in percentage terms in the seven day average.