Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Not something I get to hear about at my place, let alone the parents!

That aside, I still maintain that 80 staff cases in October is a lot...

A quick squizz at a few uni websites does suggest a) they are being a lot more transparent than school settings about covid cases (possibly in part because of confidentiality issues as schools are smaller) and b) cases in staff massively outnumber cases in the larger student populations.

@Piggywaspushed

Not something I get to hear about at my place, let alone the parents!

That aside, I still maintain that 80 staff cases in October is a lot...

If it is where I think it is roughly a staff rate of just past 300 per 100,000 (based on a seven day rate), roughly four times higher than that for its overall student body

It's probably pretty skewed by testing and possible high levels of immunity in student population? Given both staff and students should be double vaccinated by now it's quite interesting .

@Piggywaspushed

How many staff does the uni employ? That seems a lot of staff really. Sorry to put a pessimistic spin on it but 80 staff members testing positive is a lot. Are students actually bothering to test at all now? DS says only if they are doing courses that require it.

Where did you get those stats from? I don't even know that for my own workplace.

5,000 staff. All figures are public domain on the uni pages.

They are encouraged to test, free LFT's on site, and PCR's available within easy reach. They are all testing when they have symptoms, but I sure they don't bother on a regular basis.

Looking at the European numbers gives me the same fatalistic feeling as looking at the way the demographic covid burden in the UK has shifted from low to high socio-economic areas.

It just feels that it's inevitable that everyone will get it, it's "only" (crucially) a question of delaying until the booster programme is in full swing with a really prompt 5 month interval and we're all stocked up with the latest pills.

These are the UoB numbers: again much lower for students than staff. Moderately high for staff at 300 per 100,000 but I assume they're testing far more than the general population. Birmingham is a relatively low prevalence area.
intranet.birmingham.ac.uk/staff/coronavirus/test-and-trace.aspx

The interactive map for Scotland has started to go purple again after being mainly blue for a while.

30,305 today, down from 38,009 last Sunday - so another 20ish% drop?

@Bordois

30,305 today, down from 38,009 last Sunday - so another 20ish% drop?

13% on the 7 day rate. Looks good.

@lonelyplanet

The interactive map for Scotland has started to go purple again after being mainly blue for a while.

These are not looking great either . Back to school surge?

Back to school surge?
I'm not sure when the Scottish half term was, but appears to be driven again by children.

Thanks @lonelyplanet. It varies by region but most were back week beginning 25th October.

I wonder why 20-24s up again? Immunity wearing off already?

If it is where I think it is roughly a staff rate of just past 300 per 100,000 (based on a seven day rate), roughly four times higher than that for its overall student body

300 per 100,000 is lower than the general population rate, and lower than all working age age groups other than 20-29, so unless the uni has a young skewed working population this is below expected (even before you get to testing likelihood and that all of the group work outside the home etc.)

Suggests this uni has lower general rates now.

I wonder why 20-24s up again? Immunity wearing off already?

My guess would be different mixing has enabled more groups who missed it in the summer opening without the protection of friends who'd already had it - as opposed to immunity waning - if it is immunity waning though, we should see it in re-infection survey as so many of this group tested before.

Can someone who is good with stats tell me what the daily graphs mean on the BBC website? It seems to me that cases have been coming down but deaths have been going up. To my non-statistician mind, it suggests that there is something worrying happening. Why is there an increasing proportion of deaths amongst reducing case numbers? Is it that COVID is becoming more "deadly" if you get it, whether vaccinated or not?

Scottish half term was about two weeks before the English ones, so that would figure lonely.

@CurlyhairedAssassin not at all. It’s because there’s always a lag between cases and deaths. Eg someone gets infected, tested, counted in infection rates, they then take on average a week to need hospital admission and another week to die. All averages of course.

So current death rates reflect infection rates from about a fortnight ago.

And hospitalisations generally increasing of course. It's worrying. I now know people personally who have had to be hospitalised. One of those is doubled jabbed and had booster recently. Possibly aged around 60. No underlying health conditions as far as i'm aware. All the other people who I knew anecdotally to have been hospitalised prior to Delta had all been very old or had quite major underlying health conditions.

Talking of hospital data has reminded me that I saw an article recently talking about the number of people in hospital who are actually well enough to be discharged but don't have anywhere to be discharged too - did anyone else see it as I cant find it now.

Yes there's a dire shortage of home social care mainly staff shortages and some local authorities are unable to keep up with demand. So many mainly elderly are stuck in hospital until a care package is in place. My mum was luck to get a place in a nursing home on a temporary basis back in the Summer (She is now permanent resident) but her home has stopped taking further NHS temporarily due to their own staffing issues. They are classed as re-enablement beds where the NHS would fund for 6 weeks.

as hospital metrics are not updated over the weekend, looking at case movement in England instead. So dusting off the graphs showing latest seven day rate per 100,000 (x-axis) based on a three day lag, and the percentage (first graph) and absolute rate (second graph) movement. Being below the line the place to be.

Unlike the dance off for Adam who I fear is going home.

Called it, boys3!!

and this brings percentage change and absolute rate change together. Bottom left the place to be.

As I have them, and to distract from the anguish of Adam leaving, the same percentage and absolute movement graphs for each English region.

Starting with South West, London, and South East

Why do I get the feeling you're watching Strictly? 🤔