Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Despite the announcement of the ability from Monday to book boosters for your ‘at six months post second dose’ (provided you’re already five months past), you can do it now!

I just have - loads of pharmacies involved it seems.

The positive thing is that we have vaccine passports, masks and working from home to throw at it

Wales and Scotland have Masks and vaccine passports and have no noticeable difference to England, indeed Wales is still higher, so not sure those measures will even turn the dial in England and obviously nothing in the others, WFH levels are still high and won't turn the dial as much as previously - as it was mostly closed industries that enabled more people to work from home.

Jangly It's a pity they didn't proof read it - Track and Trace is Royal Mail, they might want to refer parents to Test and Trace...unless you're supposed to barcode your child and post them off somewhere.

@Piggywaspushed DH has just had his invitation for his booster due tomorrow and is booked in for Tues, so maybe there are fewer delays and glitches than we think. 🤞

Good news pussycat !

@sirfredfredgeorge

JanglyBeads How so? The twitterer was arguing that a fall before half term was reasonable due to individuals changing their testing practices in advance of it? But the testing practices of the ONS doesn't change?

In fact if the contention is that others don't test (and therefore don't isolate) we'd actually expect the ONS to show higher cases?

I read it as changing behaviour too - so keeping their activities restricted and limited (including taking time off school) in order to preserve a half term with activities and holidays is quite commonplace. Attendance fell a lot at our school in the week before half term.

preserve a half term with activities and holidays is quite commonplace. Attendance fell a lot at our school in the week before half term.

We didn’t see any of this within the classes we know but what reason do they give?

The decline in the age range looked quite steep, is it usually that noticeable for one week off school for half term?

'Ill' ... some are upfront and say 'self isolating' but may make up the reason.

I don't have data but there are a significant number of schools who would have had half term the previous week. Did a large number of private schools also have 2 weeks off? This together with the behaviour changes we talk about could have an impact.

A two week October/November half term is becoming increasingly common, but I don’t know precisely what percentage of schools have one now.

I was thinking that. So many posts telling us how shit the UK was compared to other Western European countries and how we should be following their examples, and it turns out to be no surprise at all that we were just ahead of the curve again.

'Ahead of the curve again' really does put a positive spin on where we really are and undermines the extent of what has really happened. Just look at deaths.

Yes, our deaths are currently higher, but just as with cases other countries are following us up the curve. As our cases continue to drop, so will admissions and deaths.

Just look at deaths

Why are deaths to ICU admissions so different between countries?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Just look at deaths

Why are deaths to ICU admissions so different between countries?

Is it that the likes of Germany and Belgium have greater ICU capacity and staffing? Do they have different criteria as to who gets an ICU bed?

www.bbc.com/news/uk-56234898

An article from March 21.

'The UK has 7.3 critical care beds per 100,000 people, compared to Germany's 33.8 and the US's 34.3, analysis found.'

BCF used to quote the German health system figures a lot. The ICU death rates didn’t compare well in the first wave.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Just look at deaths

Why are deaths to ICU admissions so different between countries?

Or it could be potential confirmation of the Oxford study showing how South Asians and Afro Carribeans have a gene which increases illness and death by 60%. That is not inconsiderable, and of course UK has a very large population of both of these groups, unlike much of Europe.

I'm not just talking about the UK though, and the pattern seems to differ between countries and even times - if it was simply capacity then I'm not convinced the impact would be high when cases were relatively low.

On susceptibility profile - should this change ICU to Deaths? Wouldn't it just increase the susceptibility over the population - the same as your age profile does?

It could be a data recording issue, the Belgium one there is pretty unlikely with the up/down waves over weekly periods, so it could be some sort of artifact in the recording.

Another big dropin cases today. 30,693 compared to 41,278 last Saturday.

@Bordois

Another big dropin cases today. 30,693 compared to 41,278 last Saturday.

🙌🏻🙌🏻

@sirfredfredgeorge

I'm not just talking about the UK though, and the pattern seems to differ between countries and even times - if it was simply capacity then I'm not convinced the impact would be high when cases were relatively low.

On susceptibility profile - should this change ICU to Deaths? Wouldn't it just increase the susceptibility over the population - the same as your age profile does?

It could be a data recording issue, the Belgium one there is pretty unlikely with the up/down waves over weekly periods, so it could be some sort of artifact in the recording.

I’m guessing that the German ‘dark matter’ theory is toast then.

Could be a good starting point for a Philip Pullman story though?

Nice little stat from DD's university - October 2020 cases 1,100, October 2021 cases 157, 50/50 split staff/students.

How many staff does the uni employ? That seems a lot of staff really. Sorry to put a pessimistic spin on it but 80 staff members testing positive is a lot. Are students actually bothering to test at all now? DS says only if they are doing courses that require it.

Where did you get those stats from? I don't even know that for my own workplace.

My workplace (uni) publishes weekly postive tests amongst staff and students across all campuses on our website.