Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Re: Christina Pagel’s note - I have always been puzzled why some scientists use a 7 day average measure to track the total number of people in hospitals. I understand why it makes sense for admissions but for the number of hospital beds occupied at any given point in time the average is much less meaningful. It masks the most recent trends (both on the way up and on the way down).

In any case, the number of hospital patients in England has actually gone down from 7,535 on Mon to 7,072 today. It is not a temporary blip - the numbers are indeed declining.

We always hear the same narrative from both ends of the spectrum.

On the way up:

• It is just a blip
• Cases do not matter, it’s only young people who are getting infected - we should look at hospitalisations
• Hospitalisations are up but these are mild cases and people get discharged on the same day
• Deaths are not going up

… silence…

On the way down:

• People are not testing enough
• It’s half term/school holidays
• Just wait for schools to come back
• Hospitalisations are still high
• Deaths are still high

… silence…

@sirfredfredgeorge

The ONS survey is not related to end of half term behaviour change though, unless you think it's people hiding from them?

But it relates to kids not catching COVID in school?

JanglyBeads How so? The twitterer was arguing that a fall before half term was reasonable due to individuals changing their testing practices in advance of it? But the testing practices of the ONS doesn't change?

In fact if the contention is that others don't test (and therefore don't isolate) we'd actually expect the ONS to show higher cases?

Fair summary of all the sources and the current situation, by BBC Science correspondent, here:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59179219

Quite major changes to health advice for Haringey schools

www.citypopulation.de/en/uk/covid/london/E09000014__haringey/

Sirfred the ONS and REACT figures will show the effect of decreased contacts for children and staff in school holiday though.

@wintertravel1980

Re: Christina Pagel’s note - I have always been puzzled why some scientists use a 7 day average measure to track the total number of people in hospitals. I understand why it makes sense for admissions but for the number of hospital beds occupied at any given point in time the average is much less meaningful. It masks the most recent trends (both on the way up and on the way down).

In any case, the number of hospital patients in England has actually gone down from 7,535 on Mon to 7,072 today. It is not a temporary blip - the numbers are indeed declining.

It really does not look like an obvious fall on here (mind you, I can only find UK and not England figures). Not yet, anyway.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

Wales counts hospital admissions differently from the other three nations so UK wide information is less reliable than individual numbers for England/Scotland/NI.

England’s hospital admissions are on the same dashboard:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Deaths look like they may be plateauing, so hopefully they will start to drop soon too.

@wintertravel1980

We always hear the same narrative from both ends of the spectrum.

On the way up:

• It is just a blip
• Cases do not matter, it’s only young people who are getting infected - we should look at hospitalisations
• Hospitalisations are up but these are mild cases and people get discharged on the same day
• Deaths are not going up

… silence…

On the way down:

• People are not testing enough
• It’s half term/school holidays
• Just wait for schools to come back
• Hospitalisations are still high
• Deaths are still high

… silence…

you missed out all the people insisting it's all completely over every few months

Case rises in Germany and Belgium appear to be driven by children. However in the Netherlands it looks different and appears to be going up in all age groups.

Talking of narrative, interesting to read cases in Europe hitting all time highs again despite additional measures compared to UK.

Germany has had a fast increase, only a few weeks ago so many posts re the difference between U.K. and Germany

We all were expecting increased numbers as winter rolled in surely? That's why it was important to be cautious and keep cases as low as possible before winter.

Depends what happens here next

Chris Whitty talked about the peak before winter and separating from flu hitting.

He’s been good so far and numbers here are changing downwards.

Need more certainty past half term though for pattern

Plus additional measures and that fast increase is interesting

@MarshaBradyo

Germany has had a fast increase, only a few weeks ago so many posts re the difference between U.K. and Germany

I was thinking that. So many posts telling us how shit the UK was compared to other Western European countries and how we should be following their examples, and it turns out to be no surprise at all that we were just ahead of the curve again.

@herecomesthsun

We all were expecting increased numbers as winter rolled in surely? That's why it was important to be cautious and keep cases as low as possible before winter.

I would argue the opposite.

The UK's high level of infections has allowed millions to be infected over the summer months. This means the reservoir for the virus is not as large as it would be if cases had remained very low which should take pressure of the NHS - Covid wise at least. Its still going to be a very bad winter so I would agree its important to keep Covid cases as low as possible from now on.

At the minute they are dropping which is positive but if that trend reverses I suspect we will need some additional restrictions to get through the next few months. The positive thing is that we have vaccine passports, masks and working from home to throw at it.

Plus boosters and still a lot of over 12s to get vaccinated.

Starting from such a high base rate means we don't have so far to go before we get into difficulties. And, for example, we don't want another lockdown, so we may have some hard choices to make.

Not if the decrease continues. Then we will avoid any extra measures, no plan B even.

If Germany needs to put on the breaks then it’s more restrictions than they currently have.

The peak earlier in summer was from Whitty. I think he’s got it right. But I know half term is an interruption so will give it a few weeks.

Brakes..

From anecdotes with "contacts" in DE and NL there's a testing difference, Germany is more similar to here now with lots of testing including asymptotic etc. whereas NL is testing less without symptoms, so if that is true I think there's a good chance that the NL is understating their younger age groups massively. However I haven't found details on testing criteria and practices in the countries to confirm this - I will keep looking.