Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

keep cases as low as possible right now

We are not keeping cases as low as possible. There have been decisions leading to quite a high number right now.

But on a behaviour level I did follow fairly well, my position has changed and seeing what other people are doing it seems fairly common

There probably is some reduction or caution left within a proportion - perhaps minority but it would be a spectrum

half term?

@Bordois

So, we gonna talk about this?

Is this new? It looks positive (?)

Todays ONS. Indicates cases peaked around 21st October which would mean infections peaked around 17th.

The too irritating was on here

Cautious / anxious etc v sensible and all that

If people want to have one side then we can have both or lose both.

@MarshaBradyo
There have been decisions leading to quite a high number right now.

However, the advice from the scientists (Whitty, Vallance) has been to continue with mitigations where possible.

And reportedly the advice from SAGE was not to go for the "Freedom Day" idea.

So, I don't think the current high level of cases was entirely the plan of the scientists (as the decision-making really rests with the cabinet).

Doing what we can individually keep numbers down remains ... "important"

@Bordois

yes, I saw that, you'd expect a decrease in school cases around half term, it remains to be seen whether cases rise or fall in teenage schoolchildren in the ONS figures this week and next

@Bordois

Todays ONS. Indicates cases peaked around 21st October which would mean infections peaked around 17th.

Ok thanks a couple of weeks post half term to be sure then sounds good

[quote herecomesthsun]@MarshaBradyo
There have been decisions leading to quite a high number right now.

However, the advice from the scientists (Whitty, Vallance) has been to continue with mitigations where possible.

And reportedly the advice from SAGE was not to go for the "Freedom Day" idea.

So, I don't think the current high level of cases was entirely the plan of the scientists (as the decision-making really rests with the cabinet).

Doing what we can individually keep numbers down remains ... "important"

@Bordois

yes, I saw that, you'd expect a decrease in school cases around half term, it remains to be seen whether cases rise or fall in teenage schoolchildren in the ONS figures this week and next[/quote]
Yes and Chris Whitty says we would act with a degree of caution and he was right, as usual.

Said..

ONS data fully supports the trend in reported cases. Infections in children appear to have peaked a week before the half-term.

The “back to school” wave (combined with the impact of colder weather) did not reach the Euro 2020 peak from July. Cases are now falling. The total number of patients in hospitals in England might have peaked on Mon this week.

Re: situation in winter - I liked JVT’s wording. He has urged caution but he had chosen his words carefully. The current situation appears positive but there are still risks - “unknown unknowns”. We may have to deal with new variants. We do not know what happens to flu this year. We are seeing indicators of immunity waning.

So - the trend is positive and exponential growth is contained but we are not yet “done”.

ONS data fully supports the trend in reported cases. Infections in children appear to have peaked a week before the half-term.

The “back to school” wave (combined with the impact of colder weather) did not reach the Euro 2020 peak from July. Cases are now falling. The total number of patients in hospitals in England might have peaked on Mon this week.

Very encouraging

And here is the latest on cases in the UK vs Europe:

twitter.com/Metadoc/status/1456570694687465478

All the countries follow similar trajectories but UK appears to be ahead in the pandemic curve due to earlier vaccination program and earlier re-opening.

The ons data looks encouraging. Here's what it said:

"As with the regional picture, the number of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to fluctuate across age groups. In the week ending 30 October 2021, the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 increased for those in school Year 12 to age 24 years and those aged 50 to 69 years. Rates for those aged over 70 years increased in the two weeks up to 30 October 2021, but the trend was uncertain in the most recent week. Rates have decreased for school Year 7 to school Year 11 in the most recent week, however rates remain high. The trend was uncertain for all other age groups in the most recent week.

It is too early to determine the impact of the half-term holiday on the numbers of infections among school-aged children. This is because the tests that were carried out during the week ending 30 October will have identified positive cases from those who became infected before the half term period. We will continue to closely monitor test results among school aged children.

The percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 remained highest for those in school Years 7 to 11, at 7.47% (95% credible interval: 6.66% to 8.32%) in the week ending 30 October 2021."

@wintertravel1980

And here is the latest on cases in the UK vs Europe:

twitter.com/Metadoc/status/1456570694687465478

All the countries follow similar trajectories but UK appears to be ahead in the pandemic curve due to earlier vaccination program and earlier re-opening.

Did Belgium have a testing scandal too?

Re: Belgium - I think they had reporting delays for a few days (cases behind the sofa). Nothing as bad as Immensa though.

Zoe thinks we may have peaked.
"According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 88,592 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago. A decrease of 4.7% from 92953 new daily cases last week.

In the double vaccinated population cases continue to rise slightly and it’s estimated there are currently 27980 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK up from 26927 cases last week.

The UK R value is estimated to be around 1.0 and regional R values are; England, 1.0, Wales, 1.0, Scotland, 1.0.

The ZOE incidence data is always a week ahead of the other surveillance surveys and continues to work as an early warning signal. The ZOE data has been reporting a recent downturn in cases for the last week and while the latest ONS figures are yet to reflect this trend, this is an indication that we are as usual ahead of other surveys.

In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 53 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. In the regions, England, 1 in 52. Wales,1 in 42. Scotland, 1 in 81.

The number of daily new cases is showing a clear decline in cases in 0-18 year olds. Most other age groups are showing signs of levelling off. The only age group with climbing cases is the more vulnerable 55-75 year old bracket, which is cause for concern.

In terms of prevalence, cases are highest in Midlands, South East and North East.

ZOE’s predicted Long COVID incidence rate currently estimates, at current case rates, 1,489 people a day will go on to experience symptoms for longer than 12 weeks."

So encouraging to see that Zoe has finally peaked

it is encouraging but is it not likely that cases will rise again pretty quickly once schools have been back for a few weeks?

34029 reported today

Wow, I make that about a 20% drop compared to last week?

@Bordois

34029 reported today

Wow, I make that about a 20% drop compared to last week?

Yep. England’s down 23% from last week ☺️

@mrshoho they were falling pre half term.

It's too early to be overly excited (I am a bit though) but 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻

Cambridge Mathematician suggesting why it’s unwise to try and predict case rates around a school holiday:

twitter.com/sarahdrasmussen/status/1452602991064883211?s=21

Professor Pagel's latest report on the current situation:

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1456663740397535233

[quote JanglyBeads]Cambridge Mathematician suggesting why it’s unwise to try and predict case rates around a school holiday:

twitter.com/sarahdrasmussen/status/1452602991064883211?s=21[/quote]
What is said here certainly is a familiar picture at my school in the lead up to end of terms!

The ONS survey is not related to end of half term behaviour change though, unless you think it's people hiding from them?