Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Yes piggy. I agree.

I am cautious and when I test it’s because there’s been a risk of exposure and I’m seeing vulnerable people and I wish to protect them as far as i can. Not because I am neurotic about getting covid. I’m fairly pragmatic about it, given DH is NHS, we have to be, although I do have my moments

Yes, I like to think of myself as cautious rather than nervous

@mrshoho

We've got to thank the dfe for their success in creating the perfect swirling covid storm in our schools!

Yes and to a degree the JCVI for dithering about allowing boosters to teenagers who want them.

I agree that getting tested is sensible.

It is even more sensible when here is an actual treatment for covid, for vulnerable people, that is more effective if given early (it would be interesting to see more details on the guidelines for this). So there is even more of a point to knowing whether you are positive or not.

One really positive likely implication of having molnupiravir is that, if it halves hospitalization & death rates for covid, widespread use could potentially make the imposition of more severe restrictions on lifestyle far less likely (I haven't seen any press reports yet that really cash that one out).

So it made my day yesterday to hear about that, both because it is potentially lifesaving, and for the possible effect on society.

Fred - your argument still doesn't stand on the ridiculously high positivity rates in children. Primary age children who entirely make up the 5 to 9 group and partially make up the 10 to 19 group aren't doing lfts so you really can't blame that for their high rates.
I agree the word 'nervous' is inappropriate. It down plays the seriousness of the conditions that many people are having to face each day and makes it sound like lfts are only for the weak minded. This is irresponsible.

On another note:
www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/addenbrooke-s-ceasing-to-function-as-a-hospital-and-may-se-9224152/

Maybe it doesn’t need a descriptor like that.

Whether it’s ‘worried’ or other end use of ‘sensible’ someone will feel misrepresented

Or use Chris Whitty as a guide

• an element of caution in population / sub group

However he phrases it

I’ve been hearing more and more about lack of seroconversion in children.

This may question projections around reinfection rates in unvaccinated children. Information is limited and none around Delta that I have seen.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20211020/Children-show-lower-seroconversion-rates-than-adults-with-mild-COVID-19.aspx

One really positive likely implication of having molnupiravir is that, if it halves hospitalization & death rates for covid, widespread use could potentially make the imposition of more severe restrictions on lifestyle far less likely (I haven't seen any press reports yet that really cash that one out).

Really positive results from the Pfizer drug too. Its hard not to get excited.

Not data but I think will explain my increased ‘nervousness’ recently, my son’s best friend’s mother died of covid last week, no underlying conditions, early 40s 😢 She hadn’t had the vaccine (not anti vax just hadn’t ‘got round to it’ 😢).Another friend of ours, her son’s friends father also died of covid last week. Again early 40s, seemed very fit, don’t know if he had had jab.

It certainly made me jump up and get my booster on Monday.

We test twice weekly for school and also test before we see grandparents.

@MarshaBradyo

Or use Chris Whitty as a guide

• an element of caution in population / sub group

However he phrases it

"important"

as in

"Ventilation, masks in crowded indoor spaces and hand washing remain important.”

Very happy to go with that.

I was talking about anxious / worried v cautious re testing specifically.

Wasn’t that what the topic was about?

Does this ever work I wonder telling people how they should behave

I think it probably has the opposite effect. Especially now

[quote Lelivre]I’ve been hearing more and more about lack of seroconversion in children.

This may question projections around reinfection rates in unvaccinated children. Information is limited and none around Delta that I have seen.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20211020/Children-show-lower-seroconversion-rates-than-adults-with-mild-COVID-19.aspx[/quote]
Isn't it the case that children who don't produce antibodies were able to fight of infection through their innate immune system and didn't require an antibody response.... So maybe they will be more likely to be re-infected, but given the strength of their immune systems, does that really matter?

I'm sure we can find a form of words that incorporates "important."

As in, we wear masks as we are the kind of people that recognise this is important", maybe?

Or would "scientifically-minded" do, to convert that?

As I remember, this was started by someone using the word "nervous", which wasn't really appropriate.

No I wouldn’t use that

Yes which is why I said avoid any value laden terms

Both sides can do it

One person’s anxious is another person’s important
or whatever

Too irritating

Oh and the quote was - a quote from Chris Whitty, he uses the word "important" to describe the taking of mitigations.

(I certainly hope that people listen to his advice regarding behaviour, and hat it doesn't have the opposite effect. Especially now.

hat = that

I don't find him irritating at all, actually, I think we're lucky to have him.

His might be ok, although no I don’t always follow it anymore.

More just individuals doing it, made me wonder if it has opposite effect. I know it does on me even if I’m pretty easy going either way.

How did you get to him being irritating?

That’s strange

Well, you did suggest using Chris Whitty as a guide.

It is difficult to avoid using any sort of value laden element (as you know, it benefits both people's health and the economy generally to keep cases as low as possible right now).

However, saying that the behaviour is important (rather than that the covid minimisers are daft) puts the emphasis on positive behaviour rather than criticising people. So I guess you are right in that he is a good example to follow.

@MarshaBradyo

How did you get to him being irritating?

That’s strange

"One person’s anxious is another person’s important or whatever

Too irritating"

You see, I thought Whitty's comment wasn't irritating at all.

So, we gonna talk about this?