Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We've got to thank the dfe for their success in creating the perfect swirling covid storm in our schools!

[quote lonelyplanet]Although case rates appear to be coming down positivity is still incredibly high and climbing fast in children.
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season[/quote]
Am I reading this right that there’s a nearly 50% test positivity rate in teenagers? That’s insane!

Am I reading this right that there’s a nearly 50% test positivity rate in teenagers? That’s insane!

45% in boys and 40% in girls.

@julieca

I said a few days ago deaths and hospitalisations were going up. They will go down again as cases have fallen. But the big question is whether they will go up again. I suspect yes.

Why do you suspect they will increase? I suspect Covid has largely now exhausted its supply of "Covid virgins" in schools, and with large numbers having been infected since the summer, immunity should remain high for quite a while.

Am I reading this right that there’s a nearly 50% test positivity rate in teenagers? That’s insane!

So many of the tests are confirming LFD's and close contact to case tests so super high chance of positivity, rather than simply symptoms, and the group is also low chance of symptoms for testing in any case.

@Warhertisuff I don't think the booster campaign is fast enough. Last month the figures showed infections creeping up through the age groups. This is what has happened before, kids get it and then it creeps up the age groups. The vaccinations will stop deaths and hospitalisations from reaching the rates of last Christmas. But we know without the booster that the effectiveness of vaccines has waned.

Julieca just had a look at the boosters. Scotland & Wales leading the way. England about 3% behind - which is a lot of people.

Ni though is shocking. Just over 7% have had a 3rd dose / booster.

Supply is not an issue, and I can't understand why it is so difficult.

And it's not only a case of people not coming forward- it just doesn't seek at all well organised.

Are people getting Flu & Booster at same time? That seems to be the case in Greater Glasgow and wondered if other places were doing the same?

I have had a flu jab, the booster was not offered at the same time. There are very few places giving boosters near me. So people are either queuing for a long time at the only walk-in or not able to get appointments. I know a lot of people eligible where I live, none have had a booster yet, although some are booked in.

So many of the tests are confirming LFD's and close contact to case tests so super high chance of positivity
Do you have the data for this by age? I don't see how this is different between children and adults.

lonelyplanet There are obviously more close contacts because there are more cases in the age group and children in school having more close contacts than the older age groups. So more close contacts because of more contacts.

We also knew from previous data that younger age groups are less likely to have testable symptoms in all cases (it's why the ONS rates have shown much lower detection rate in 0-9 to other age groups) and that's testable symptoms in all viruses, not just covid, so a respiratory virus that gives a healthy teenager a snotty nose and an occasional cough is more likely to manifest itself as a fever in less healthy individuals (and older individuals are much less healthy as a population, look at obesity, diabetes etc. rates)

As specifically why more LFD's it's because children are much more likely to be LFD testing, teenagers are the only group being pushed into it, the only adults outside the group doing it are the more nervous group, and the more nervous group would be taking other measures.

@Ohsofedupwiththis NI was significantly behind in opening up boosters for bookings - until 4pm on Tuesday those eligible had to wait to be invited by their GPs or health&social care staff could go to pharmacies (not sure how that was booked). There’s now a very wide network of pharmacies doing moderna boosters and it’s super easy to book (either phone or online or walk in depending on the chemist) for all over 50s/otherwise eligible so hopefully their dreadful numbers will increase quite quickly from where they are now. I got my parents sorted easily this week.

NI’s largest chain pharmacy is also offering flu and COVID boosters at the same time, so hopefully that will be helpful too!

corona.health.gov.il/en/directives/air-travel-covid19-green/?tab=by-air

Israel now only considering individuals "fully jabbed" for entry if the vaccination was completed in the last 180 days, whilst I imagine Israel won't do much as a visitor destination for booster demand, if other countries follow...

[quote julieca]@Warhertisuff I don't think the booster campaign is fast enough. Last month the figures showed infections creeping up through the age groups. This is what has happened before, kids get it and then it creeps up the age groups. The vaccinations will stop deaths and hospitalisations from reaching the rates of last Christmas. But we know without the booster that the effectiveness of vaccines has waned.[/quote]
And our high use of the astrazeneca vaccine in older groups which doesn't seem as effective as pfizer against Delta. It did the job well earlier in the year but there's conflicting data now on protection waning as little as 15 weeks after second dose in some groups. Is this why only pfizer is used for boosters?

@sirfredfredgeorge
*the only adults outside the group doing it are the more nervous group, and the more nervous group"

Or those of us that have to for work.

@sirfredfredgeorge

As specifically why more LFD's it's because children are much more likely to be LFD testing, teenagers are the only group being pushed into it, the only adults outside the group doing it are the more nervous group, and the more nervous group would be taking other measures.

Previously you said some adults in certain employment groups did lots of testing now you are saying only 'nervous' adults do testing. A) you can't have it both ways and b) that's a bit offensive.

Since we agreed before that teachers, NHS staff /careworkers etc are highly likely to be taking lots of tests , I can assure you we have no opportunity to take 'extra measures'...

Let's try that again...sorry.
@sirfredfredgeorge

the only adults outside the group doing it are the more nervous group

Or those of us that have to for work.

Cross post there! Indeed...

@mrshoho "And our high use of the astrazeneca vaccine in older groups which doesn't seem as effective as pfizer against Delta. It did the job well earlier in the year but there's conflicting data now on protection waning as little as 15 weeks after second dose in some groups. Is this why only pfizer is used for boosters?"

It's not just Pfizer being used as boosters. My parents had Moderna boosters yesturday.

After having AZ for first two

Yes sorry Containsnuts I should have asked Is that why astrazeneca is not being used for boosters this time around.

Or those of us that have to for work

Sorry, yes, there is a group here of those, however they also fall in the "so regularly exposed there's little chance they haven't had it in the last 3 months of few restrictions", when talking about why gross statistics about whole populations you have to generalise across the population - that's what the statistics are doing.

And I apologise for characterising "nervous" as such a negative, I don't thin it is - I didn't know how to say "people who are more concerned about covid will test on fewer or lighter symptoms" that sounds just like nervous to me.

why astrazeneca is not being used for boosters this time around

AZ have only just requested permission to be used as a booster, so it would be going even more "off label" to start using it as such.

Nervous has pretty negative connotations sirfred.

Sensible would be my word of choice, obviously that reflects my judgement.

Cautious perhaps.

I go for civic minded, too...