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Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

999 replies

boys3 · 22/10/2021 22:22

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

Our STUDIES Cornerwww.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

OP posts:
Thread gallery
142
herecomesthsun · 03/11/2021 19:22

@sirfredfredgeorge

One thing on both "teachers" and "7-8 months" etc. all of that can be heavily biased by testing (teachers more likely to test, they're a profession where regular LFD is encouraged, unlike others) and by the prevalence in the community which is mediated by lockdowns. Of course the commonest time between infection in cases found 7-8 months later as that's the time between the waves in the current situation.

It's the same with Delta - the only chance of detecting re-infection is with delta as there were so few cases found before the alpha wave (remembering no testing for 90 days so no detection in the first 3 months) and the number of original individuals detected was so low.

Same again with "living in multiple occupation" etc. correlation, just means you're more likely to be exposed to any virus so therefore more likely to be re-infected, doesn't tell us anything about the waning or variant protection.

So those things don't tell us much (doesn't mean they're not true, and doesn't mean they aren't entirely reasonable)

The better news is the "lowest amount of virus" as that suggests that alpha protection is actually still good at preventing delta infection as those individuals who didn't need to exercise much of an immune response are more likely. However that doesn't explain the relatively poorer vaccine protection (which should be a high amount of virus)

Other professions test regularly too. For example, health workers, social care workers. Our hairdressers are testing regularly, as they are doing personal care. And so on. So I wouldn't think that teachers are the only large group of workers testing.

It's interesting that high levels of infection in education workers are now considered "not news to anyone" as up till very recently this was hotly contested on here.

I'm hoping vaccination in secondary schools will make a difference.

I note that the US is now vaccinating 5-11 year olds with 1/3 dose of Pfizer (I haven't seen the research findings presumably providing the rationale for this particular dose ).

Here's a New York Times article which might be of interest (I have managed to read it without paying anything) www.nytimes.com/2021/11/02/well/kids-covid-vaccine-shot.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20211103&instance_id=44532&nl=updates-from-the-newsroom&regi_id=107339928&segment_id=73452&te=1&user_id=ad926f220b2fc5bec351a5631a508c1b

"To date, nearly two million children ages 5 to 11 in the United States are known to have been infected with the virus, and 8,300 have been hospitalized. A third of those hospitalized were admitted to intensive care units, and at least 170 have died. More than 120,000 children in the United States have lost a parent or caregiver to the disease."

The rates of hospitalisation are about 0.4% of known infections and The death rate looks to be a lot higher than ours, especially for the young age of the children. There are apparently about 24.3 million children aged 6-11 in the US.

MarshaBradyo · 03/11/2021 19:22

Yep I thought it interesting to see interpreted

herecomesthsun · 03/11/2021 19:24

I agree that we can only work with the data we have, (and there are limits to how far we can extrapolate it as well Smile)

Piggywaspushed · 03/11/2021 19:33

I should imagine care home workers, who have also had vaccines mandated, test even more!

The confidence interval for education staff is narrow too. If that's the right adjective.

lonelyplanet · 03/11/2021 19:57

The report does say:
"individuals who regularly carry out lateral flow tests continued to be more likely to test positive than those who did not; this is consistent with lateral flow tests being carried out by those who are otherwise at higher risk"

Which I take to mean that people (including people who work in schools) who are at higher risk, test more frequently and have more positives because of the high risk. Not that more test positive because of their testing.

Lelivre · 03/11/2021 20:13

Four times in ninety years does not sound too bad for the healthy person with no clinical vulnerabilities. Assuming reinfection are not more serious (this is an unknown, right?)

However these 100,000 days, for whom? I can’t see this information, is this a large cross section and are these counting days where huge swathes of said cross section were locked down, furloughed and working from home or key workers living their (somewhat) normal life.

Given this current wave is the first ‘natural’ wave very few individuals have had repeat exposure. What is the situation for hospital workers? That maybe more helpful, or perhaps not as they still have strict protocols and PPE.

Looking at the situation with teachers would help except the previous waves only keyworkers were going to school and mitigation’s were in place,

I don’t know, I’m not used to reading such reports, just trying to understand…

lonelyplanet · 03/11/2021 20:22

Latest data on COVID-19 hospital admissions, bed occupancy and hospital deaths in England.

mobile.twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1455954152845103109

Warhertisuff · 03/11/2021 20:27

@herecomesthsun

We are still getting the data though on what re-infection rates will look like 2, 3, 4 ,5 years after first infection, who will be vulnerable and what the hospitalisation and death rates will be for those people etc.

Hopefully, vaccines and some sort of regular booster will reduce the rates right down, but I'm a bit puzzled than anyone would think they can reliably extrapolate for 90 years.

I'm absolutely not trying to predict the course of Covid over the next 90 years - that would be ridiculous- but merely to try and put the currently measured reinfection rate into context.

Another way of looking at this is, if scaled up to the UK population of 67 million... An endemic situation where all infections are re-infections, the total number of daily infections would be 670 x 12 = 8,000 per day. Given that only about half of infections are actually recorded daily, that would be equivalent to 4,000 daily cases based on current testing rates, about 1/10th of current figures.

Arguably we're still a way from being fully back to normal even with no restrictions on activity. Many people still routinely test and isolate, and many aren't interacting freely with others, so I'm thinking this is too low to be a realistic steady state.... but it seems that we're unlikely to get to the sub-1,000 daily figures we saw last summer.

Regulus · 03/11/2021 20:49

It's interesting that high levels of infection in education workers are now considered "not news to anyone" as up till very recently this was hotly contested on here

This, plus children are not vectors of transmission, gaslight for months and then bam.

herecomesthsun · 03/11/2021 21:09

I just don't think we know enough about the future course of the illness and all the different variables to predict what those figures are going to look like in future decades in any sort of meaningful way, whether we feel the scenario suggested is optimistic or pessimistic.

So I would struggle either to feel consoled or alarmed by this. It just seems to be meaningless, in any scientific or medical sense.

If you wanted to write a sci fi novel, though, that could be a start?

Ohsofedupwiththis · 03/11/2021 22:25

I think its reasonable to suspect that reinfection rates will grow over time.

With regards to school workers, I would like if they got access to boosters as soon as possible. We don't have supply issues now.

JanglyBeads · 04/11/2021 09:17

That’s not going to happen @ohsofedupwithis.

Quite from Imperial re the latest REACT study which goes up to early Novmber:

Prevalence was also more than four times higher in households with one or more children at 3.09%, compared to those without children (0.75%).

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the programme from Imperial’s School of Public Health, said: “These very recent data show that infections are still very high, especially in school-aged children. We continue to find that households with children have a higher prevalence of infection, indicating that children could be driving up infection rates by spreading the virus to others in their homes.

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/11/2021 09:32

Prevalence was also more than four times higher in households with one or more children at 3.09%, compared to those without children (0.75%)

But remember lots of this was because of the super low prevalence in 18-30 year olds 'cos they all had in July/August. Prevalence across households would've been completely different at that point, and would've "shown" the complete reverse about how much kids were a vector.

JanglyBeads · 04/11/2021 10:38

I understand the need to look at the context, but hasn’t every study including REACT studies shown multi generational households (which presumably nearly always include children?) as a risk factor?

If I have time I’ll look at previous study.

JanglyBeads · 04/11/2021 12:59

We discussed this issue previously-infection rates now highest in least deprived areas:

twitter.com/victimofmaths/status/1456194918020521988?s=21

Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021
PrincessNutNuts · 04/11/2021 13:25

@JanglyBeads

I understand the need to look at the context, but hasn’t every study including REACT studies shown multi generational households (which presumably nearly always include children?) as a risk factor?

If I have time I’ll look at previous study.

I read something somewhere that there's a theory that the larger the family, and the more children are in it, the more chance that the whole family will get it.

We caught covid at a family wedding with almost as many children guests as adults so it stuck in my mind.

lonelyplanet · 04/11/2021 18:18

This analysis of deaths over time and by age shows very clearly how the risk of death drops in those who have had the opportunity to be vaccinated.
mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1456304538302959616

sirfredfredgeorge · 04/11/2021 18:31

The risk of death also looks lower vs cases too though? much higher cases in the "delta" wave, but not much higher deaths, rather than the low res graphs, does anyone have numbers?

Could easily be explainable by higher detection percentage now, but that is of course interesting in itself.

alreadytaken · 04/11/2021 18:45

Apart from children anyone in the country who wants a vaccine should have been able to find one by now. Some people need it more than others, though. www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/scientists-find-gene-that-doubles-risk-of-dying-from-covid/ar-AAQjY34?li=AAJt1k3&ocid=mailsignout

mrshoho · 04/11/2021 20:09

[quote alreadytaken]Apart from children anyone in the country who wants a vaccine should have been able to find one by now. Some people need it more than others, though. www.msn.com/en-gb/health/medical/scientists-find-gene-that-doubles-risk-of-dying-from-covid/ar-AAQjY34?li=AAJt1k3&ocid=mailsignout[/quote]
Very interesting. It does make more sense as to why for so many it's no worse than a cold but for others so dangerous.

lonelyplanet · 04/11/2021 20:12

Although case rates appear to be coming down positivity is still incredibly high and climbing fast in children.
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021
alreadytaken · 04/11/2021 21:01

Not the only gene to be implicated in worse covid - but does suggest deprivation is not the only reason some groups have high rates. Far too easy to write differences off as "deprivation" rather than dealing with all the causes.

Dont like the lookof those child positivity rates, was hoping the decline was past infection + vaccination beginning to have an impact.

Lelivre · 04/11/2021 21:03

@alreadytaken interesting link thanks.

JanglyBeads · 04/11/2021 21:16

Those positivity rates Shock

julieca · 04/11/2021 21:27

I said a few days ago deaths and hospitalisations were going up. They will go down again as cases have fallen. But the big question is whether they will go up again. I suspect yes.