Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@sirfredfredgeorge

Seems a bit of a jump for Scotland, is that a pattern I've missed 'cos I look less?

Don't panic! There's been a few days of data reporting issues so it's probably best to wait for the 7day average. Looks like it's up a bit tbh but not as bad as it looks if you're only looking at today's numbers.

Just here to add..

A few weeks ago we had huge case numbers and numbers of people in hospital was about the same as it was at the same point last year both about 8k.

Now we have 9.5k in hospital but on the same date last year it was over 12.5k.

So does that evidence that we aren't seeing the same sharp increase in people in hospital as we did last year? A small glimmer of hope that this year may be slightly easier?

@LivinLaVidaLoki this winter should be - this time last year we were already back in lockdown!

@bluetuesdayy

True.

Some data on reinfections coming out...

*The risk of reinfection with the dominant Delta variant of coronavirus is 74% greater than with the previous Alpha variant that was first spotted in Kent last year, official figures from the UK show.

A report published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday recorded 358 Covid reinfections in 20,757 people between July 2020 and October 2021. While overall rates of reinfection were low, they climbed significantly after May 2021 when the Delta variant became dominant, reflecting the variant’s increased transmissibility.

The ONS estimates that the rate for all Covid reinfections in the UK was 11.9 per 100,000 participant days at risk, meaning that once the participants had accrued 100,000 days at risk of reinfection between them, statisticians would expect to see about 12 cases. Most reinfections were seen seven to eight months after the initial infection.

People who had the lowest amount of virus in their system during their earlier Covid infection were at greater risk of contracting the virus again, as were people living in multiple-occupancy houses. Teachers and others working in education were also at higher risk of reinfection, probably because of the high levels of infection in schools, the ONS found*

Here is the report:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/3november2021#glossary

@Piggywaspushed

Some data on reinfections coming out...

*The risk of reinfection with the dominant Delta variant of coronavirus is 74% greater than with the previous Alpha variant that was first spotted in Kent last year, official figures from the UK show.

A report published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday recorded 358 Covid reinfections in 20,757 people between July 2020 and October 2021. While overall rates of reinfection were low, they climbed significantly after May 2021 when the Delta variant became dominant, reflecting the variant’s increased transmissibility.

The ONS estimates that the rate for all Covid reinfections in the UK was 11.9 per 100,000 participant days at risk, meaning that once the participants had accrued 100,000 days at risk of reinfection between them, statisticians would expect to see about 12 cases. Most reinfections were seen seven to eight months after the initial infection.

People who had the lowest amount of virus in their system during their earlier Covid infection were at greater risk of contracting the virus again, as were people living in multiple-occupancy houses. Teachers and others working in education were also at higher risk of reinfection, probably because of the high levels of infection in schools, the ONS found*

Oo that’s pretty good news right? Still incredibly low estimates of reinfection.,

Not if you work in a school or have school have children. It’s terrible and mirrors exactly what has been spoken about. The lack of protection in these environments is criminal. It’s highlights the complete gaslighting throughout the pandemic re: schools.

Must admit I did find it interesting that the ONS say education workers continue to be at raised risk when they have not , as far as I know, shared this before...

The care home workers is surprising? Or not?

[quote Piggywaspushed]Here is the report:

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveycharacteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19uk/3november2021#glossary[/quote]
Thanks for this link. I am yet to read it, I wonder if there is data collection on severity or % of hospitalisations upon reinfection. We need to understand this.

Are home workers not mentioned in what you posted piggy - or is that in the full report?

*Care home workers

@Itisasecret

Not if you work in a school or have school have children. It’s terrible and mirrors exactly what has been spoken about. The lack of protection in these environments is criminal. It’s highlights the complete gaslighting throughout the pandemic re: schools.

I don’t understand .. why?

What don’t you understand bizawit?

Care home workers in report.

I don’t understand .. why?

Because it says:

"people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with those working in other sectors; this is likely related to the continuing higher infection levels among school-aged children"

@lonelyplanet

I don’t understand .. why?

Because it says:

"people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with those working in other sectors; this is likely related to the continuing higher infection levels among school-aged children"

Oh I see. I didn’t realise this was news to anyone that infections were currently high in schools (because of the high rates in 10-14s that we’ve been seeing for weeks- luckily going down now 🤞🏻).

I thought we were talking about reinfection rates!

The ‘news’ is that "people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with those working in other sectors”.

One thing on both "teachers" and "7-8 months" etc. all of that can be heavily biased by testing (teachers more likely to test, they're a profession where regular LFD is encouraged, unlike others) and by the prevalence in the community which is mediated by lockdowns. Of course the commonest time between infection in cases found 7-8 months later as that's the time between the waves in the current situation.

It's the same with Delta - the only chance of detecting re-infection is with delta as there were so few cases found before the alpha wave (remembering no testing for 90 days so no detection in the first 3 months) and the number of original individuals detected was so low.

Same again with "living in multiple occupation" etc. correlation, just means you're more likely to be exposed to any virus so therefore more likely to be re-infected, doesn't tell us anything about the waning or variant protection.

So those things don't tell us much (doesn't mean they're not true, and doesn't mean they aren't entirely reasonable)

The better news is the "lowest amount of virus" as that suggests that alpha protection is actually still good at preventing delta infection as those individuals who didn't need to exercise much of an immune response are more likely. However that doesn't explain the relatively poorer vaccine protection (which should be a high amount of virus)

@JanglyBeads

The ‘news’ is that "people working in the education sector continued to be more likely to test positive in comparison with those working in other sectors”.

Ahh. I think that’s been true for the last couple of weekly reports. Since 18th Oct or something.

The ONS estimates that the rate for all Covid reinfections in the UK was 11.9 per 100,000 participant days at risk, meaning that once the participants had accrued 100,000 days at risk of reinfection between them, statisticians would expect to see about 12 cases. Most reinfections were seen seven to eight months after the initial infection.

To put this into perspective, 100,000 days is c.274 years.... So based on current re-infection rates measured by the study, a person living to 90 (roughly 1/3 of the 274 figure) could expect to get Covid just four times in their lifetime.

That actually seems very reassuring, and hardly squares with the posts I've seen on here claiming 'so many children are on their 3rd Covid infection and really ill with it!' However, I realise I may have missed something key in that "back of envelope" calculation.

To put this into perspective, 100,000 days is c.274 years.... So based on current re-infection rates measured by the study, a person living to 90 (roughly 1/3 of the 274 figure) could expect to get Covid just four times in their lifetime.

Thanks for this and agree it doesn’t square with the on third time posts you often get

But we weren’t testing as much last year so a proportion of those reinfected won’t be included in official data.

We are still getting the data though on what re-infection rates will look like 2, 3, 4 ,5 years after first infection, who will be vulnerable and what the hospitalisation and death rates will be for those people etc.

Hopefully, vaccines and some sort of regular booster will reduce the rates right down, but I'm a bit puzzled than anyone would think they can reliably extrapolate for 90 years.

@herecomesthsun

We are still getting the data though on what re-infection rates will look like 2, 3, 4 ,5 years after first infection, who will be vulnerable and what the hospitalisation and death rates will be for those people etc.

Hopefully, vaccines and some sort of regular booster will reduce the rates right down, but I'm a bit puzzled than anyone would think they can reliably extrapolate for 90 years.

I think the poster was just trying to helpfully illustrate/ translate what this data , if correct, would mean in a real life context. Of course the data is subject to many limitations, but we can only work with the data we have!