Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The number in the "3rd wave" looks to be fewer than the proportionate number of infections, the ONS were saying 9% of secondary school kids weren't they, when previously it never got above 3-4% - so that implies the number of admittances has gone down in this age group as a proportion to infections?

Haven't the number of paediatric deaths gone up , though? Admittedly, still very small numbers but 13 since September rings a bell.

But fred there will be many more hospitalisations happening now (given the high rates in the week to 22 Oct) and in the weeks to come, that’s only latest figures as it says.

James Ward summarising/working out the assumptions behind the SPI M models

twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1453801855205707778?s=21

@Piggywaspushed

Haven't the number of paediatric deaths gone up , though? Admittedly, still very small numbers but 13 since September rings a bell.

It now stands at 101 according to those totting up the score.

It hit 100 on October 29th, to deafening media silence.

There's a table of recent deaths here (again, totted up by an interested person from government figures)

Those figures will be based on testing positive

Media would jump on it imo as they have with everything so far

What’s the breakdown?

Media has not been jumping on everything; there have been government vetos in place on coverage of covid in some media outlets and probably still are.

Can you prove children are dying from Covid and it is vetoed?

I can remember two very sad cases, the 13 year old which shocked me hugely and a more recent one, which was very sad. Both highlighted in the media. Why?

Can you break down numbers to show there are more

In this era of SM how do you squash that?

There are confidentiality issues when reporting child deaths, especially when cases could be easily identified.. But deaths really aren't reported at all now other than in numbers . The human face if the virus has perhaps faded . Some people would argue this is a good thing. Others not so much.

No one can say for sure what those numbers mean.

Some stories make the media so there is not a stop on it

There is nothing to stop families talking about it on SM

I believe the ONS figures for child deaths.

I know that anything produced on some media outlets at least has had to pass approval from relevant government departments before being made public.

So the opposite of "jumping on" a good news story.

I don't know the extent of this at the current time though.

So, when there were 100 child deaths from covid last week, this possibly may not have received the full media treatment that 100 child deaths from a new cause would normally get.

I did not say that the government were suppressing extra child deaths.

Do you think most families want to do that?

Not sure what you are saying really? Various sources acknowledge deaths of children arexreal and have risen. They also accept numbers were suppressed by shielding in previous waves. Most had serious underlying neurological conditions ( as mentioned in JCVI minutes in fact), but not all.

So, when there were 100 child deaths from covid last week

Do you mean from?

Or with a positive test

How does ONS define it

To be honest when someone spoke of the death of a child on MN a while back, they were flat out told they were lying, so SM reports aren't taken as evidence of fact .

What I’m saying is that interchanging from with positive test are not realising there is a big difference.

It’s crucial to understanding the data

In child deaths , covid is often the main factor.

@Piggywaspushed

In child deaths , covid is often the main factor.

Based on what?

Can you supply info

Same as if a child with any severe health condition gets ill with a virus. The complications can lead to death. They don't have the other complicating factors you might find in the very frail elderly.

It’s very sad that children die from various causes or are hospitalised but if 1 in 12 are positive in this age range this number that test positive will go up

Which is why interchanging between from and testing positive shouldn’t be done

@Piggywaspushed

Same as if a child with any severe health condition gets ill with a virus. The complications can lead to death. They don't have the other complicating factors you might find in the very frail elderly.

Can you show info pls?

Marsha, it's medical fact. I'd have to go to a million different places! Some of the children who died may have had severely life limiting conditions, but Covid will have attacked weak immune systems. That's why so many deaths in all ages are found in people with serious underlying conditions.

They may have had more than one cause on death certs.

I’d have to see more on it from medical experts directly related to Covid

This age group has a testing rate of 1 in 12 don’t you think this will be reflected in hospitalisation and death figures as higher number testing positive

@MarshaBradyo

I’d have to see more on it from medical experts directly related to Covid

This age group has a testing rate of 1 in 12 don’t you think this will be reflected in hospitalisation and death figures as higher number testing positive

Maybe do your own research Marsha?

Sorry, that is to say the milestone of the 100th death of a child in the pandemic. As far as I know, who had tested positive with covid.

The JCVI report used the figure of 25 children/ young people under 18 dying in the first year of the pandemic. Actually 61 children died who had tested positive, 25 died of covid, another 22 of "acute infection" (? how much related to covid) and 3 of PIMS-TS, the Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome, which has been linked to covid. There is a preprint here looking at this; it would be of medical interest to know more about the acute infections and how closely they were linked to any covid infection. On the other hand, I can see this would be a very sensitive area for everyone concerned.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.07.21259779v1

It is quite far though from the early days of the pandemic, when the message was very much that children were almost immune from covid.

As an example, someone with CF might have a susceptibility to viral infection and severe complications. They could die because they catch Covid. Or another nasty virus. Such children were often actively shielded in the first two waves. The death cert would say Covid complications.