Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Spiegelhalter is one of the Sunday paper reviewers on R4’s Broadcasting House currently - should be good!

Not exactly data but an article on the immorality of statements in the JCVI minutes that have recently been published. These decisions have a bearing on the data so I think are relevant here.

sciencebasedmedicine.org/jcvi/

Gosh, I have always thought Dingwall a bit of a pillock but that bit about the peaceful passing with Covid is not something I have read from him before- and not really backed up by any reports of Covid deaths from frontline nurse.

I went through all the minutes quite carefully yesterday. It is notable that much of what they said was not released when the JCVI decision was aired (there are numerous comments about how carefully information sharing would have to be managed, and then it wasn't!), so that many parents and other interested parties (eg school workers and unions) were not aware of the ideas of 'allowing children to get infected' and there could be no biteback against the , even at the time, fairly laughable idea that transmission did not happen between children. It is also noteworthy that most of the discussions seemed to occur long before the decision was made in pre delta May.

Minutes obviously have a certain rather cold tone but Dingwall's offer to do a paper on medical ethics (did a load of other professional really need this??Or did they just agree to give him something to do...) is interestingly minuted interference not long before he parted ways with them! The tone and timbre of the minutes actually quite obviously change after his departure.

Nisreen Alwan has been tweeting about the minutes. One follower did point out that we invest a lot of time talking about and worrying about child mental health , but child physical health is rarely voiced as a concern. She has written a paper for the BMJ on the 'childism' of the UK's Covid policies and what this means . Very interesting. Certainly it does all read like the quickly denied idea that the government was/is pursuing some kind of herd immunity via children was not a myth.

Thanks for posting : it's clearly a biased perspective but an interesting read, in terms of how outsiders view our policies.

Vaccines for 12- 16 year olds back in news today via a press release which makes it sound like it is new that schools are jabbing kids, as if they are supporting the national bookable programme. That's an interesting spin on the abject failure of rollout in most schools!

Immorality is a completely unscientific way of describing a disagreement, one this is specifically designed to promote feelings, scientists should not be using it in that way.

More terrible scientists trying to use morality to further an agenda rather than scientific discussion, morals are not absolute, we cannot say to a religion whose morals are against any medical treatment are wrong if we're going to turn around and say things are only right because our morals say they are.

As most people know, I believe the entire world should be vaccinated in risk order, so vaccinating UK kids before others elsewhere is morally wrong to me, but I don't go publishing my morals as science (I could of course argue minimising overall harm as a reason to vaccinate by that strategy, but that wouldn't be a moral argument)

This is a genuinely fascinating article on the words 'natural immunity' and how they are used in the science community and outwith, leading to some harmful messaging :

sciencebasedmedicine.org/natural-immunity-covid-19/

But fred there is whole field of medical ethics. You cannot separate morality and science. eugenics being an obvious example.

Plenty of people, scientific, and not, have used morality and ethics as reasons for (non)decision making and debate during the pandemic : for example, the decision to return aged people to care homes,and the famous whiteboard 'how many deaths are acceptable' scrawl.

My understanding is that the SBM pushes back against the unscientific nonsense that is anti-vaxx. the fact that they identify ant- vaxx tropes in the JCVI is at the very least interesting. I don't think it is even doubted that at least one contributor to JCVI is sceptical about vaccines.

@Piggywaspushed

My understanding is that the SBM pushes back against the unscientific nonsense that is anti-vaxx. the fact that they identify ant- vaxx tropes in the JCVI is at the very least interesting. I don't think it is even doubted that at least one contributor to JCVI is sceptical about vaccines.

Dingwall's latest tweet in reponse to that article is pretty revealing

Robert Dingwall Flag of Scotland Flag of European Union Reunite
Just more aware of the risks of what they are doing and reluctant to put potentially toxic stuff into people unless clearly justified. Not in hock to commercial interests that would like to sell vaccines and boosters to everyone for ever and a day or to Immortality Inc.

No one has suggested boosters for children, nor that boosters will be needed "forever". Suggesting the vaccines are potentially toxic given we have data to suggest otherwise is also pretty problematic for a member of the JCVI (when this is not his area of expertise). No wonder the teen vaccine roll out is a mess.

I think now he is unshackled from JCVI, his true colours may be coming out.

I know someone who knows him and to say he is somewhat eccentric and outspoken is an understatement. He probably didn't intend to become an anti vaxxer poster boy but this does seem to have happened.

He was never a full member of JCVI but was co opted for expertise in medical ethics (so 'moral discussions'). There are many many medical sociologists : it is a growing field. But one medical sociologist definitely does not represent one body of thought. Definitely not.

No one has suggested boosters for children, nor that boosters will be needed "forever"

All evidence is that the current vaccine wanes after months (not that it's that effective anyway) - what solution are you suggesting if it's not more boosters? Are there other better vaccines we've not seen which work better?

Yes, there is a whole department of Medical Ethics now, for example, at the University of Oxford, part of the Medical Sciences division.

It is also the case that a decision was previously made against widespread vaccination of children against chickenpox; one idea behind this is given on the actual NHS website

"Being exposed to chickenpox as an adult (for example, through contact with infected children) boosts your immunity to shingles. If you vaccinate children against chickenpox, you lose this natural boosting, so immunity in adults will drop and more shingles cases will occur."

The linked article from Science Based Medicine quotes the JCVI as discussing that "There is an argument for allowing the virus to circulate amongst children which could provide broader immunity to the children and boost immunity in adults." which is a similar sort of idea.

I note that in most Western countries children are vaccinated routinely against chickenpox; there are very many arguments for this, and considerable benefit to children.

So with this thinking, in the UK children are denied protection from illness to benefit adults.

I think myself that this is highly spurious when applied to chickenpox, and even more so when applied to covid.

@sirfredfredgeorge

No one has suggested boosters for children, nor that boosters will be needed "forever"

All evidence is that the current vaccine wanes after months (not that it's that effective anyway) - what solution are you suggesting if it's not more boosters? Are there other better vaccines we've not seen which work better?

Dingwall's quote regarding this was specifically about vaccinating children. It is not relevant to the discussion about the JCVI minutes and just looks like a scaremongering and distraction technique to me.

What solution are you suggesting if not more boosters?
Well again, most teens haven't been vaccinated so this seems irrelevant. But - vaccinated people will have their immunity boosted by reguarly exposure to coronavirus given the high circulation. We should hopefully reach a situation (maybe not next year, hopefully in several) whereby low risk people do not need boosters as their immune systems will have chance mount and maintain a decent level of immunity which will prevent severe illness and reduce transmission to others.

Vaccination allows this process to happen whilst minimise the risk of infection, transmission, severe illness and long term complications.

@herecomesthsun

Yes, there is a whole department of Medical Ethics now, for example, at the University of Oxford, part of the Medical Sciences division.

It is also the case that a decision was previously made against widespread vaccination of children against chickenpox; one idea behind this is given on the actual NHS website

"Being exposed to chickenpox as an adult (for example, through contact with infected children) boosts your immunity to shingles. If you vaccinate children against chickenpox, you lose this natural boosting, so immunity in adults will drop and more shingles cases will occur."

The linked article from Science Based Medicine quotes the JCVI as discussing that "There is an argument for allowing the virus to circulate amongst children which could provide broader immunity to the children and boost immunity in adults." which is a similar sort of idea.

I note that in most Western countries children are vaccinated routinely against chickenpox; there are very many arguments for this, and considerable benefit to children.

So with this thinking, in the UK children are denied protection from illness to benefit adults.

I think myself that this is highly spurious when applied to chickenpox, and even more so when applied to covid.

But it’s the same individual?

So as the child grows up they are in a better position

I’m vaccinating dc as he’s 11 and I mentioned it to a friend who said she wouldn’t for her dd due to immunity when PV

It made me think would iI be doing the right thing for my dd if chose to vaccinate

@Piggywaspushed

Gosh, I have always thought Dingwall a bit of a pillock but that bit about the peaceful passing with Covid is not something I have read from him before- and not really backed up by any reports of Covid deaths from frontline nurse.

I went through all the minutes quite carefully yesterday. It is notable that much of what they said was not released when the JCVI decision was aired (there are numerous comments about how carefully information sharing would have to be managed, and then it wasn't!), so that many parents and other interested parties (eg school workers and unions) were not aware of the ideas of 'allowing children to get infected' and there could be no biteback against the , even at the time, fairly laughable idea that transmission did not happen between children. It is also noteworthy that most of the discussions seemed to occur long before the decision was made in pre delta May.

Minutes obviously have a certain rather cold tone but Dingwall's offer to do a paper on medical ethics (did a load of other professional really need this??Or did they just agree to give him something to do...) is interestingly minuted interference not long before he parted ways with them! The tone and timbre of the minutes actually quite obviously change after his departure.

Nisreen Alwan has been tweeting about the minutes. One follower did point out that we invest a lot of time talking about and worrying about child mental health , but child physical health is rarely voiced as a concern. She has written a paper for the BMJ on the 'childism' of the UK's Covid policies and what this means . Very interesting. Certainly it does all read like the quickly denied idea that the government was/is pursuing some kind of herd immunity via children was not a myth.

Thanks for posting : it's clearly a biased perspective but an interesting read, in terms of how outsiders view our policies.

Vaccines for 12- 16 year olds back in news today via a press release which makes it sound like it is new that schools are jabbing kids, as if they are supporting the national bookable programme. That's an interesting spin on the abject failure of rollout in most schools!

With two terms off I don’t think we talked or did enough

But what’s childism?

PV should be pg

Just thought I’d leave these two thoughts here.

Well, an idea floated against chickenpox vaccine has been that the children getting infected in the community provide a sort of booster to the older adults who might otherwise get shingles. So the child gets infected, to benefit adults (people other than the child)

So the kids go through chickenpox (which is very unpleasant and can leave children scarred or in hospital with pneumonia, and is even occasionally fatal) effectively for the benefit of adults, when there's a very safe and pretty effective vaccine, that the rest of the developed world is happy to use.

@Bizawit

Just thought I’d leave these two thoughts here.

Well, the JCVI haven't covered themselves in glory with their part in getting covid vaccines to teenagers, have they?

I'll just leave that there.

@herecomesthsun

Well, an idea floated against chickenpox vaccine has been that the children getting infected in the community provide a sort of booster to the older adults who might otherwise get shingles. So the child gets infected, to benefit adults (people other than the child)

So the kids go through chickenpox (which is very unpleasant and can leave children scarred or in hospital with pneumonia, and is even occasionally fatal) effectively for the benefit of adults, when there's a very safe and pretty effective vaccine, that the rest of the developed world is happy to use.

I’m interested in why my friend would not do it. It suggested to me there was a reason.

We do vaccinate in Aus but I’m still interested in why there is an argument against it. Which I would look into for dd

@Bizawit

Just thought I’d leave these two thoughts here.

I agree with this

It's not very appropraite for here though, as no one is misrepresenting what the JCVI said or did, just discussing it as tragically misguided?

Misguided how?

Alasdair Munro is one of the most obviously biased scientists on Twitter who has no more knowledge of what happened at those JCVI meetings than any other scientists who have read the minutes. His endless smug subtweeting is tedious.

The science community do like a bicker!

And what does he mean by politically motivated? It is always interesting when a phrase like that appears.

@MarshaBradyo

Misguided how?

Using the idea that children being infected and gaining immunity this way would benefit adults, as an argument for not offering the vaccine 12-15 year olds.

But then not being transparent about this, and claiming that they only considered "direct medical benefits to children" in their decision making.