Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@JanglyBeads Thanks, I don’t think they have misremembered. They do have an agenda unfortunately. Would just like some hard facts to keep them quiet!

I thought I had posted this but Sheffield tests were sent to that Immensa lab, too, so definitely not just SW. This came from a FOI request.

BunsyGirl - hope you and your DC will get better soon!

Your relative is referring to the statistical phenomenon that illustrates that when Covid prevalence is relatively low, an asymptomatic individual testing positive on LFT has got a high chance of getting a false negative. However, it is not the case in your situation. Firstly, the level of prevalence in the UK is not “relatively low” (especially in children). Secondly, your son has got symptoms so we cannot no longer use the standard calculation.

It is nearly certain the PCR is a true positive:

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1453729163383226390

@wintertravel1980 Thank you!

JCVI (and DfE) minutes on vaccinating children finally published.

Also, Tonga gets its first covid case, bless them. I hope they aren't badly affected.

@JanglyBeads

JCVI (and DfE) minutes on vaccinating children finally published.

where can we read about this?

I know someone closely who was repatriated from Tonga last March

Iirc the health service is such that keeping it out was critically important

All here :

www.gov.uk/government/groups/joint-committee-on-vaccination-and-immunisation

Also re Tonga, from what I know of the demographics, they might be especially liable to severe illness from covid, so here's hoping they get through it as lightly as possible.

Yes I think so, similar to criticism from Maori communities in NZ -I think I’m not totally up with it

But I hope vaccination is higher and/ or it’s suppressed

It looked like paradise to me from pics (with very friendly people) but a difficult place for Covid to take hold

I'm not criticising them, just hoping they don't get too ill.

I know don’t worry I didn’t mean that

I just meant I was agreeing they are vulnerable and that has prompted similar concerns in NZ from Maori communities against the approach from government

Todays topic for debate - why do those who are double vaccinated have lower death rates from other causes

"Now a recent report from the Centres for Disease Control (cdc) in America has produced a novel, and even mysterious, reason to be glad for a covid-19 vaccination. The cdc data show that people vaccinated with the Pfizer or Moderna covid-19 jabs are one-third as likely to die of other causes too."

Of course they are less likely to be from a deprived group, less likely to be from an ethnic group, maybe take better health decisions (tried to controlthat one by looking at people who had previously had flu jabs). Still a fun statistic to quote to any anti-vaxers. And can anyone find the actual CDC report?

Still a fun statistic to quote to any anti-vaxers

It's a depressing statistic, because it shows all about health inequality, and how access to vaccine and healthcare is not as simple as it being free.

At least the "being vaccinated is the biggest predictor of mortality risk" true data that we had at the start of year was clearly a joke based on the sensible way we rolled out the vaccine, but misusing correlation data to try and suggest they do different things is never productive in an environment where TRUST has been shown to have an effect in vaccine take up.

www.peterborough.gov.uk/news/enhanced-response-area-status-vital-to-protect-nhs-and-vital-services?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=Orlo&utm_content=Coronavirus

Sky report from yesterday evening sounds like new SAGE minutes are out, not sure

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-high-case-numbers-in-schools-where-not-all-pupils-are-vaccinated-are-ideal-conditions-for-new-variant-government-scientists-12454231?fbclid=IwAR0MMLD2NEFDAqnFagWGk4ZLakkOssvam5rjyNXzzMp-vhXJu6U7eK3Uw3U

R could possibly rise to 2.3, variant could emerge in schools amongst the unvaccinated population.

Have never heard the idea that close contacts could be defined as those met up to 5 days before an individual tests positive/has symptoms -?

Data flow and backlog issues from the Glasgow lighthouse lab this week, so a high number of reported cases in Scotland today, at 3,867. But looking at cases by specimen date, last Monday 25th, has 3222 reported cases now. Cases creeping up.
We'll see what if any affects, Halloween, pay weekend, all schools now back and the COP26 has on Scotland's figures.
54% of 12-15 year olds have been vaccinated. 12% of the population has had their 3rd jag.

To Marsha a few pages back, we have more LFTs reported to school when cases are high, both negative and positive, in our area at least there is definitely still a willingness to test.

I am worried about half term, we have had a lot of emails from parents reporting positive LFTs, and we know that a large proportion of our school population have been visiting relatives this half term, high amounts in school children before a half term will certainly test the vaccine immunity of the older generation.

Are covid passports really generated by doing an LFT and uploading the result to the app?

R could possibly rise to 2.3, variant could emerge in schools amongst the unvaccinated population

This must be modelling a huge decrease in vaccine protection, as there are no more restrictions to drop to increase R, and little behavioural change based on the movement etc. studies.

If that is the case, then surely the main concern should be that, not any worries about "new variants.

I expect the reality is that "could" is about the same could as aliens visiting or Boris becoming competent.

Yup Regulus, it’s as simple (aka open to cheating) as that….

Although I know I read about some context (travel maybe?) where the company or organisation sends you out the device and checks that it’s that device’s result in a photo you upload.

Are covid passports really generated by doing an LFT and uploading
the result to the app?

The main preventative measure for preventing this form of "cheating" on the negative test as a covid passport, is of course the cost, and not the actual practicalities, like all of the security theatre around covid passports it is theatre.

There's already compromised signed "I'm vaccinated" passports available - www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/eu-investigating-leak-of-private-key-used-to-forge-covid-passes/ - none of these solutions are foolproof, but it's unlikely worth the hassle and cost of making them foolproof.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Other areas in the SW (not the 13 that were affected) didn't have this happen so people isolated and cases didn't rise in the same way

They have not published the areas where the tests were being sent to the bad lab though, we don't know exactly which areas it was do we? Only those which had a high number of failed tests - you're assuming that the other "south west" councils went to a different lab, but there's no evidence of that, just that they didn't have a large number of failed tests - but they wouldn't've if they didn't have much covid there to detect.

I think there's a PCR lab in Plymouth, so lot of 'proper' SW areas probably had their samples tested at that one.

There was plenty of covid down here in Cornwall before/during the Wolverhampton lab fiasco, and we'd be in a terrible mess now if we'd been having the same high false negative PCRs here. We do seem to be past the peak of this particular wave, although that could just be the half term effect on school transmissions.