Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

The best case scenario invloves 5k deaths in the next 6 months. I make that about 27 deaths per day (but am really happy to be corrected). That would involve a big fall in deaths, wouldn't it - could further vaccinations/ boosters achieve that?

In which case, we really would be looking at a much better outlook over winter.

It says that without boosters, deaths would be 4-6 x higher (so from 105 - 330 approx per day) which is more or less where we are now, by my reckoning.

Of course, modelling can get things wrong, but this looks positive to me.

@JanglyBeads

Aren’t numbers of tests taken showing that there hasn’t (yet) been less testing because of half term?

If you were not wanting to risk a positive test before a holiday then you wouldn't test in the week leading up to it. So any drops would be at least a week before?

But that’s only one reason people may stop testing Bordois. Many schools monitor testing quite closely and this can’t happen (at least not in the same way) over a holiday. Also some families might be less likely to test in the holidays because they are not going anywhere or seeing anyone.

@JanglyBeads

But that’s only one reason people may stop testing Bordois. Many schools monitor testing quite closely and this can’t happen (at least not in the same way) over a holiday. Also some families might be less likely to test in the holidays because they are not going anywhere or seeing anyone.

We usually use 6 tests a week when at school, in this half term holiday we’ve used 2 (checking covid free before seeing grandparents)

Dashboard Data is really late today..

@Bizawit oh really? Hadn't noticed I definitely don't check at exactly 4pm every single day...

Ha no I don’t everyday. I’m just bored today and waiting for it to update 😆.

@Bizawit I actually do that, need to get a life!

@Bizawit

Hospital admissions are still slightly trending increase, but i think it’s fair to say they are fairly flat..

The analyses I’ve read have said half term could be a factor in the falling case numbers, but the drop seems too significant and rapid to be likely to explained by that alone..

from sky news just now

The rate of coronavirus hospitalisations in England reaches highest level since February

The level of admissions stood at 8.4 per 100,000 people in the week to 24 October, according to the UK Health Security Agency (HSA).

This is up from 7.5 the previous week.

It is the highest rate of admission since the week to 21 February.

The West Midlands currently has the highest hospitalisation rate.

From Tim Spector:

Worryingly close to 100,000 new cases a day

According to ZOE COVID Study incidence figures, in total there are currently 92,953 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average, based on PCR and LFT test data from up to five days ago []. An increase of 14% from 81,823 new daily cases last week.

In the double vaccinated population cases continue to rise and it’s estimated there are currently 26,927 new daily symptomatic cases in the UK up from 23,199 cases last week.

The UK R value is estimated to be around 1.1 and regional R values are; England, 1.1, Wales, 1.1, Scotland, 1.1.

The ZOE incidence data is always a week ahead of the other surveillance surveys and continues to work as an early warning signal. The ZOE data has been reporting an uptick in cases for the last month and the latest ONS survey figures also reflect this trend and the high numbers.

In terms of prevalence, on average 1 in 56 people in the UK currently have symptomatic COVID. In the regions, England, 1 in 54. Wales,1 in 44. Scotland, 1 in 81.

Cases are rising across all age groups, although the proportion of cases remains highest in 0-18 year olds. In the last week there has been an uptick in the rate of increase in the more vulnerable age groups (55-75) that are more likely to be hospitalised.

In terms of prevalence, cases are high in all regions of the UK, while there has been a notable steep rise in cases in the South West.

ZOE’s predicted Long COVID incidence rate currently estimates, at current case rates, 1,490 people a day will go on to experience symptoms for longer than 12 weeks.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/worryingly-close-to-100-000-new-cases-a-day

People are deffo not testing. I haven’t been, I had a spa weekend which cost £1000s, not missing that. I went and had a great time, some of the highest Covid rates in the country where I am. People aren’t testing because it’s all been such a shit show, people want to get out. Also, the whole negative/void PCR thing is going on here still.

I’m keeping my fingers crossed we shall get a bonfire in before the back to school shit hits the fan and testing comes back in. That said, I don’t know how my child is returning to school. Looking a lot like long Covid and sleeping 16 hours a day.

The Zoe app is suggesting what most people who can critically think have realised, the official stats are seriously underrated for various reasons.

@Bordois
sorry, you are right, I totally misread western for eastern.

Hey yooooo guuuyyyyssss!

Dashboard has updated, im off to take a closer look!

@Bordois

Hey yooooo guuuyyyyssss!

Dashboard has updated, im off to take a closer look!

Positives still going down which is good but there's also less testing so not sure what to think .

Did SPI-M detail what their previous model got so wrong with the massive over-estimate of hospitalisations despite the R staying high?

'cos otherwise, what's the justification for them just publishing more guesswork?

Positivity still climbing in most age groups, but looks to be slowing a little in children.
www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season

England, 1 in 54. Wales,1 in 44

I believe one of these countries restrictions are the same other than one still requiring masks indoors?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Did SPI-M detail what their previous model got so wrong with the massive over-estimate of hospitalisations despite the R staying high?

'cos otherwise, what's the justification for them just publishing more guesswork?

Are you saying that if scientist's models don't turn out to be correct then they shouldn't try and model again in the future? I would hope they would learn from outcomes and then make adjustments to future models. Surely the whole point of a model is a calculated guess, which must be difficult given continually changing goalposts.

@lonelyplanet No, I'm saying an essential part of all modelling is identifying why the model turned out to be wrong, if you don't do that it is guesswork. It's not that it was wrong that the problem is, it's that they have failed to publish how it failed, what assumptions they had that turned out not to be true, and why.

Our prediction of number of hospitalised with an R of 1.1 was over stated by a factor of 3, this as because... is what's necessary, without that, how can anyone have any confidence in the model, particularly when there are other modellers who modelled it more accurately.

This might be worth its own thread but I'll just post it here:

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/231557/covid-vaccines-effective-household-transmission-delta/

It's quite a small sample of people who caught it, but another interesting bit other than the high SAR in even vaccinated - viral load proportional to age, younger the lower.

The main thing is how much higher this SAR is than the data we normally get, they mention it in the paper and do suggest it's because are surveillance often misses infection - perhaps wrong index case, testing at the wrong time etc.

Is it me or has the bbc put an odd spin on that recent Imperial research? I've just read them both and find it confusing.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59077036

Also saw in the bbc is a reference to the waning vaccine immunity. It shows pfizer to have longer lasting protection compared to astra zeneca. Do they start waning as early as 1 month after vaccination?

I read that they estimated there would be far more household mixing than there was. Outside of children, a lot of people are still limiting contacts and that surprised them.

I read that they estimated there would be far more household mixing than there was

That would explain their predictions on R, how does it explain that despite cases being as high as their predictions, hospitalisations were nowhere near. Anyway, that people are guessing suggests no-one else has found them explaining want went wrong either, to me, that is not scientific or not open despite their promises to be.

@mrshoho

Is it me or has the bbc put an odd spin on that recent Imperial research? I've just read them both and find it confusing. www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59077036

Also saw in the bbc is a reference to the waning vaccine immunity. It shows pfizer to have longer lasting protection compared to astra zeneca. Do they start waning as early as 1 month after vaccination?

Also saw in the bbc is a reference to the waning vaccine immunity. It shows pfizer to have longer lasting protection compared to astra zeneca. Do they start waning as early as 1 month after vaccination?

This is a good explanation of the ons antibody study looking at waning immunity. It suggests 5 months is the tipping point.
mobile.twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1453289464441233422