Data, Stats, Daily Numbers started 22nd October 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread.

Our preference is for factual, data driven and analytical contributions.

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

The links below cover a range of data sources. Ideas for additions or deletions always welcome. PHE probably should be referenced at UKHSA.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Also, the whole negative/void PCR thing is going on here still.
It looks like it is.
mobile.twitter.com/ProfColinDavis/status/1453785567628611600

Has anyone seen any scientific explanation of why a few people seem to continually get positive LFT but negative PCR results, over a series of months?

I’ve read reports of this on MN and elsewhere since the spring, eg
www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4387173-lateral-flow-tests-always-positive?pg=2

Or must it just be - as someone suggests on that thread - that the initial negative PCRs were false negatives, you had Covid and the LFDs are still detecting fragments months after (as we know they can)?

" LFDs are still detecting fragments months after (as we know they can)?"

It is PCR tests that detect fragments of Covid RNA months after.

Lateral flow tests detect the proteins on the virus. If positive there is virus present. (Unless a false positive, but they are quite rare with LFTs)

@sirfredfredgeorge

I read that they estimated there would be far more household mixing than there was

That would explain their predictions on R, how does it explain that despite cases being as high as their predictions, hospitalisations were nowhere near. Anyway, that people are guessing suggests no-one else has found them explaining want went wrong either, to me, that is not scientific or not open despite their promises to be.

I think the mixing amongst those most vulnerable has been less than expected. It is largely older people who get hospitalised, not young people.

Oh yes @amicissimma, I did know that really.
(Will go and mention that on the thread if no one else has!)

Hmm.

Thanks

Although the advice is also not to do LFD tests for a period after testing positive so they must potentially show positive after initial infection as well??

Wales is changing its guidance: vaccine passports plus this (courtesy of BBC) -

“Self-isolation guidance for people who are fully vaccinated will also change.

Currently they are not required to isolate, but the government will now ask people to do so if someone in their household has symptoms or tests positive, until they get a negative PCR test.

The advice will also apply to those aged five to 17.”

More on the ongoing issues with PCR tests and the immensa scandal from Professor Pagel. It appears that problems are much wider than the SW. The sceptic in me thinks the problem is being deliberately ignored to keep case rates looking artifially low or to encourage people to lose faith in testing.
mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1453840968306802689

@lonelyplanet my thoughts too. A consequence could be that if case rates are artificially low, hospitalisations and deaths will be artificially high if that makes sense. It will seem as though a higher percentage of people end up in hospital - like what happened in the beginning. This will cause alarm and nudge everyone to get their booster. (I don't know if that's my inner skeptic or inner conspiracy theorist breaking through )

@containsnuts @lonelyplanet

That's an interesting theory @containsnuts I'm so sceptical of this government and the media, I feel like every move they make is to manipulate our behaviour.

I think if they wanted to reinforce restrictions they'd want cases to be as high as possible for the fear factor? As well as manipulative, they are also genuinely incompetent so a testing failure could be down to genuine idiocy.

Another here that is also skeptical re the pcr test problems.

The PCR thing is corrupt in my opinion. Yeah I know it’s a data thread but it makes the whole concept a farce if the actual data is being suppressed in one form or another for whatever reason. Which it would appear to be.

It’s pretty obvious to anyone who works outside of the house, away from Covid mitigations what is going on. The issue with PCR tests is being picked up still, not only with first hand experiences, but more widely in the scientific world. There are suggestions that the ZOE app is highlighting the massive under-calculations going on. Partly due to the PCR thing but testing is dropping because it has been/is half term.

I’m not sure what the idea is behind it. Genuine incompetence, corruption, fears of the long term consequences of letting it rip through the younger generations, they know they’ve potentially fucked it for winter when schools go back and don’t want to say. Who knows.

There are suggestions that the ZOE app is highlighting the massive under-calculations going on

I cannot see any evidence for massive under-calculation, I can only see that the UK catches a far higher proportion of cases than any equivalent country (ie not countries which are still chasing suppression and very few cases with strict restrictions) Catching 40k a day when there's less than a 100k by other measures is astonishing.

It’s pretty obvious to anyone who works outside of the house, away from Covid mitigations what is going on

Could you explain more about this...

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29october2021

ONS survey for the week up to 22 October

9.1% year 7 -11s positive for covid

1 in 50 people in England and 1 in 40 people in Wales positive for covid,, 1 in 75 in Scotland and NI.

As regards numbers, the estimated numbers with covid in the week up to 22 October were approx

1.1 million in England
78 k in Wales
24k in NI
72k in Scotland

I put this as relevant to the discussion ongoing

Yes, so 1.1 million in England testing positive, you are positive for ~10 days which means it's ~100k a day of new infections, which means catching 40,000 of them is a very high percentage.

I saw something the other day suggesting we only find about 20% of cases, can’t remember where? Possibly an analysis of why the billions spent on T&T have not achieved their stated aim.

And apparently Immensa were also awarded £12million to sequence variants in October….
twitter.com/tomjs/status/1454007360557658112?s=21

@sirfredfredgeorge

There are suggestions that the ZOE app is highlighting the massive under-calculations going on

I cannot see any evidence for massive under-calculation, I can only see that the UK catches a far higher proportion of cases than any equivalent country (ie not countries which are still chasing suppression and very few cases with strict restrictions) Catching 40k a day when there's less than a 100k by other measures is astonishing.

It’s pretty obvious to anyone who works outside of the house, away from Covid mitigations what is going on

Could you explain more about this...

The ONS data is proof of this. The testing thing doesn’t really matter, it’s obvious what the consequences are of burying your head in the sand. The SW and their educational/workplace/hospital settings are proof of this. Denial something is happening doesn’t mean it’s not.

People who are actually outside, working in places where Covid mitigations are non existent can see how much community spread there is. They are living it, watching it happen as the reality is hidden from employees, parents, etc. It’s impossible to see if you’re not in the thick of it, wfh and all the rest of it when the Government are gaslighting you with false data.

The ONS and Zoe data shows the ‘real data’ for the sham it is. It’s not representative of what is actually happening.

www.ft.com/content/a51f85a2-e338-4057-81bc-75447b7660b3

Head of UK Stats Office “lost for words”, Spiegelhalter speaks of “gross distortions” - UKHSA using NIMS figures in vaccines reports.

People who are actually outside, working in places where Covid mitigations are non existent can see how much community spread there is. They are living it, watching it happen as the reality is hidden from employees, parents, etc. It’s impossible to see if you’re not in the thick of it, wfh and all the rest of it when the Government are gaslighting you with false data

But what is happening? You say the ONS is accurate, then R is 1.1, but if R is 1.1 then there are huge mitigations going on, R of delta covid without mitigations is estimated at over 8, but even if it's 3 the mitigations are having a massive impact.

I'm struggling to see the point of what is this "reality" you're talking about, that is actually having a massive impact on reducing spread? And still the narrative that people are not doing anything, is it really all about masks, as a visual identification of it?

The Zoe figures seem to be for the whole of the UK, and I think the UK daily +ve rate is about 40k.

I have never seen anywhere a clear statement of how long people test +ve for in ONS - is it 10 days?

Snapshot of figures from Worldometer yesterday showing reported +ve cases / deaths

UK - 39,842 / 165 = 1 death per 241 +ve cases
Germany - 26,610 / 122 = 1 death per 218 +ve cases
France - 6,461 / 33 = 1 death per 196 +ve cases
Italy - 4,866 / 50 = 1 death per 97 +ve cases
Spain - 2,212 / 33 = 1 death per 67 +ve cases

Obviously i'd rather we had a much lower number of deaths, but other countries +ve rates look very low by comparison to reported deaths so is it possible there's a more general European problem with PCRs giving false negatives?

43k cases today - what were they last Friday? Can't remember sorry!