For those who want restrictions to return...

[Warhertisuff]

When would think it reasonable for those restrictions to be eased again?

Or do you believe restrictions should be a permanent, or at least cyclical, part of life now?

Important caveat to the above mentioned study:

The analysis uses average life expectancies at each age. These may be overestimates as those who died from COVID-19 were more likely to have co-morbidities than their peers and may have had lower life expectancies. Our overall estimate should therefore be seen as an upper bound on the number of years of life lost from COVID-19

So that ten years is an overestimate, actually.

But the idea that the vast majority of people who died were just on the point of inevitable death anyway; that idea is a dangerous load of rubbish.

Just a caveat.

@Delatron

Great post *@UsedUpUsername*

Some people have completely lost all perspective now. It’s quite sad to see.

It's quite sad to see I wish to keep my humanity? If that's sad, then I'm proud of it.

If we care enough about people dying of cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc enough to treat them in the first place, it seems a bit weird to not then care if they die of COVID.

@porcupineintherough

Agreed, plus they are more likely to die of complications or lack of treatment of cancer, diabetes or heart disease etc if the hospitals are overwhelmed with high levels of covid

Delatron - surely if the people who can wfh, do wfh, this may reduce risk of transmission by a small amount, slightly slowing the rise in cases, giving more time for boosters to happen. Same with masks.

This would benefit both people who wfh and those who have to see people face to face. And it would reduce rate of admissions to hospital, to reduce likelihood of having to cancel elective procedures and waiting lists getting longer.

@Porcupineintherough

If we care enough about people dying of cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc enough to treat them in the first place, it seems a bit weird to not then care if they die of COVID.

It bothers me, too, to see people quoting Colin Powell's death. My sibling has late-stage multiple myeloma. He is a young man with a family. Multiple myeloma can affect a body in various ways: one of them is blood clots. He has had enormous blood clots throughout his body that have proved difficult and dangerous to shift. Now, if he should catch Covid - given that is a multi-system disease that is known to cause clotting - obviously, that is a specific danger for him.

Good news! Papers reporting that cases to slump this winter anyway. This is cheering.

Yep and if cases fall naturally without restrictions then they won’t shoot you again. This was always the plan. The media just stirred things up and people believe them. This is not last year we are in a completely different situation with a different strategy.

@WouldBeGood

Good news! Papers reporting that cases to slump this winter anyway. This is cheering.

It really is. Makes a change from the last few days when the papers were reporting the return of restrictions. I really, really hope it comes to pass.

If the models reported today about cases falling in November anyway are correct it wouldn’t make much sense to introduce low level restrictions now as even if they worked the result would be pushing the peak later into winter.

I understood it’s why we’ve done it this way with timing re winter peak.

Good to hear modelling shows it.

Maybe we in Scotland should be wary, as we still have restrictions

Maybe @WouldBeGood the masks aren’t actually doing much and you have peaked naturally and it’s probably the vaccinations that are having the impact.

I doubt you’ll see a rise when you finally get rid of masks as I don’t think they suppress that much.

If the models reported today about cases falling in November anyway are correct it wouldn’t make much sense to introduce low level restrictions now as even if they worked the result would be pushing the peak later into winter

TBH I'll get no more excited over this than I did about the models showing 100k cases a day. Boris has a message or a "want" - in this case not to impose restrictions, and hey presto an "expert study" appears to back it up

It's to be hoped they've got it right on this occasion, but time will tell

@Chessie678

If the models reported today about cases falling in November anyway are correct it wouldn’t make much sense to introduce low level restrictions now as even if they worked the result would be pushing the peak later into winter.

Big if true.

My natural inclination is to distrust models, but hope it comes to pass

Never in the history of world pandemics have the young and physically fit had to had to sacrifice everything to save the old. Sorry but it's not normal. Young people have lost so many life experiences because of these bullshit lockdowns, I'll tell you what the real pandemic is, suicide rates in 15-25 year olds since covid happened has gone through the roof. Boris doesn't care because it doesn't fit his agenda like covid does.
If you want to wear a mask then do it, if you want everyone else to wear a mask to benefit you then I'm sorry but that's never gonna happen again. Move to North Korea, you might prefer it there with all the restrictions.

100 children in the uk have died of covid. 1in7 children are suffering long covid.
It wasnt just to save the old.
If we are using the line they would have died soon anyway then thats the same as saying they would have commited suicide of something soon anyway.
Noone wants restricions, no one wantstheir loved one to die premeturely of anything, or sufferlong term illness. No wnts the NHS at such breaking point that people are waiting 12 hrs in ambalance outsidethe hospital asthisnot only posesgreater risk to that persons outcomebutmeans that ambalance isnt available to get someone whos justoverdosed, the RTC injury, theheart attack patient, or the child whohas just fallen out of a tree with a likely headinjury.

Nothing in the periodis black and white. Restrictions or no restrictions bothcome with impacts, its about balancing the restrictions to avoid the worst possible situations and get max possible benefits for all

@Covidworries where are you getting 1 in 7 from???!!! The latest study and a report from September this year estimated at 2% for long covid in children which is way way lower than 1 in 7!
This was a study which included great ormond street hospital BTW.

Long covid is horrible but actually all the latest studies for children are showing its way less than originally thought. In fact a lot of the child respondents reported emotional and mental health symptoms and they concluded the importance of children being allowed normal interactions in combating this.

In comparison there is now a big backlog of toddlers with development delay because of lack of interactions caused by lockdowns with referrals up to speech and language specialists.

I have no doubt long Covid is awful. But I question the 1 in 7 figure for children.

Has there been an official definition? Covid and other serious illnesses such as flu/pleurisy and pneumonia can really knock you for six for months and months. And post viral fatigue can be long and debilitating.

So including people who still have symptoms after 6-12 weeks and that therefore have long Covid is misleading.

It can take months to recover from a serious illness.

@CBroads

Never in the history of world pandemics have the young and physically fit had to had to sacrifice everything to save the old. Sorry but it's not normal. Young people have lost so many life experiences because of these bullshit lockdowns, I'll tell you what the real pandemic is, suicide rates in 15-25 year olds since covid happened has gone through the roof. Boris doesn't care because it doesn't fit his agenda like covid does. If you want to wear a mask then do it, if you want everyone else to wear a mask to benefit you then I'm sorry but that's never gonna happen again. Move to North Korea, you might prefer it there with all the restrictions.

Okay so

no one is "sacrificing everything"; we have hardly any restrictions in place

suicide rates, from the data I've seen, don't seem to be through the roof, and are higher in older people

www.statista.com/statistics/289102/suicide-rate-in-the-united-kingdom-uk-by-age/

www.samaritans.org/about-samaritans/research-policy/suicide-facts-and-figures/latest-suicide-data/

4912 people in England died by suicide in 2020. This is 404 fewer than in 2019. Numbers also fell in Wales and Scotland.

The overall suicide rate was 10.0 per 100,000 compared to 10.8 per 100,000 in 2019.

Males aged 45-49 continue to have the highest suicide rate (23.8 per 100,000)

There was some delay with coroners' inquests last year, but that seems to be recovering.

Louis Appleby (national expert) on suicide here www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n834

@delatron yes there is a official definition of long covid by WHO and NICE and a test under research.

I have long covid but also the figures of 1 in 7 for children is not what the latest update is. For children the risk is way lower.
The vaccination is also showing major reduction in the chances of getting long covid in adults.

@Delatron with you on this long Covid thing. Yes, some oriole do have ongoing symptoms. But studies show they can present whether or not the person tested positive for Covid, and is much less in children. A lot of the supposed symptoms are very vague and could result from many other conditions

@delatron and @WouldBeGood there are studies which are showing reasons behind long covid.
One shows mini blood clots www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210816125717.htm

The blood test which is being developed/under a bigger trial also shows people with long covid have a antibody marker not found in non long covid people or people recovered from covid.

This obviously is not going to be everyone who is reporting long covid but actually there is evidence that shows its different from post viral fatigue syndrome

I’m not saying there’s not long Covid @Scottishskifun, just that it’s been massively over egged