For those who want restrictions to return...

[Warhertisuff]

When would think it reasonable for those restrictions to be eased again?

Or do you believe restrictions should be a permanent, or at least cyclical, part of life now?

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@herecomesthsun

But we are not seeing a 20-25% reduction in case numbers in real life see Wales/Scotland. The WHO recommend masks alongside other measures. Masks alone are not going to have significant impact.[/quote]
For one thing, we don't know what the figures would have been without masks in Wales and Scotland. So the comparison doesn't prove anything; there are too many other variables going on.

I agree we should implement other measures as well, ideally low key ones, to keep numbers down, as far as possible,

[quote Dishhh]@UsedUpUsername

They are actually very tightly connected though. Is saving the life of an elderly person worth destroying the life outcomes of a child? It’s been demonstrated that during the war, children whose education was interrupted had worse outcomes than those who had already completed or had yet to begin their education.

As I noted before, this isn't just about the elderly - an ECV person can be any age. I would also question the hyperbole of "destroying the life outcomes" of children". That's simply divisive. Certainly, it hasn't been easy for kids. Some will have struggled more than others - but life chances destroyed? Few will emerge from this time unscathed.

These types of views are fundamentally abhorrent- ranking people as more worthy to save (kids over the elderly) and the healthy over, again, the elderly and the vulnerable. It may be sensible and natural and just life to you. But to me, who is ECV, this is philosophically an uncomfortable place to inhabit. To you, it is fundamentally human. To me - inhuman.[/quote]
The average age of a COVID death is actually more than the average British lifespan.

AVERAGE.

Age is the biggest risk factor for COVID. By far.

It didn’t have to be this way. Working-age people should have been allowed to live normally with few restrictions.

It’s not just education. How many health services have been curtailed? We are going to have a cancer crisis because people aren’t getting diagnosed. Mental health as well.

We may find that we’ve cut short our teens lives by years just to save people who’ve already lived past the average age of death. And maybe we aren’t even saving them, but just making things worse (eg care home disasters, isolating the elderly is also very dangerous).

@herecomesthsun I’ve said on this thread I’m pro-mask so this isn’t a snark at masks but I was unaware anyone was saying masks alone reduced transmission by 25%. My understanding is evidence is high grade medical ones more than that. Surgical and cloth, less.

Recent Bangladesh trial (not fully RCT but the closest we have come) suggested 9% reduction from surgical masks is everyone wore, and no real difference from cloth I think? Who is saying 25%?

@Puzzledandpissedoff

You did write as if the CEV were all elderly and on their last legs

Please show me where and I'll gladly apologise - though I'd be surprised if it was written rather than mistakenly assumed, since it's simply not my view

And on the immortality thing, if we regard this as an reluctance to accept that none of us are getting out of here alive, then I stand by my view

science has thrown everything it can at it,...

Unfortunately Covid's going nowhere, ...so more - mostly very elderly and/or already very sick - will die, and perhaps the real change will only happen when folk come to terms with this

Well, science has produced vaccines, boosters and evidence-based treatments in the past year, and the scientists are still going to work on this.

The whole point of modern medicine is to overcome illness and pain and prevent unnecessary early deaths.

On average, each person dying with covid in the first year of the pandemic would have lived for at least another 10 years.

www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/one-year-on-three-myths-about-COVID-19-that-the-data-proved-wrong

Oh and no one has said they want to be immortal, but personally, I'd rather not die 10 years earlier than I really need to.

Your comment about coming to terms with covid deaths really does read as though you want to write off the lives of the vulnerable.

Great post @UsedUpUsername

Some people have completely lost all perspective now. It’s quite sad to see.

@UsedUpUsername

This Government tried to continue with life as normal as much as they could in March 2020. They ignored calls for mitigations in September 2020 by their own scientists, tried initially to have a normal Xmas last year and then tried to get schools back in Jan 2021.

If they could have given you life "as normal" they would have done - it just didn't work, because, you know, it was a pandemic and too many people were inconveniently getting very sick and dying all the way through that.

Used upusername - don’t think it’s as simple as saying that health services are negatively impacted by restrictions.

Sure, you could run diagnostic services ‘as normal’ by packing everyone into waiting rooms, and spread covid in the process; but when those patients catch covid (in addition to their medical problems they are getting diagnosed with), they go into hospital, taking up beds - which reduces capacity for (‘elective’ procedures - including cancer and other important procedures which impact on people’s length and quality of life). For many health services, keeping case numbers low using multiple different measures would be beneficial. Of course some of these restrictions will impact negatively on conditions and mental health - so not straightforward.

Sunshine - lockdown would mean implementing the masks and wfh anyway, is there that much downside to bringing the masks and wfh in early? At least if there is an impact, there is a chance we might not have to lockdown or reduce length and severity of lockdown. I think it would make a difference to my company’s policy if the govt recommended wfh.

@herecomesthsun

Why would cases have been randomly higher in Scotland and Wales than in England?! There is no logic to that.

In any event, your position as I understand it is that current Government policy (that masks should be worn in enclosed spaces, distance where possible, socialise outside if possible) is correct. You think it should be more widely promoted by Government. I'd have no objection to that.

Those who agree need to be proactive in seeking that, write to their MPs etc. No change to Government policy is actually required.

@Namenic

Used upusername - don’t think it’s as simple as saying that health services are negatively impacted by restrictions.

Sure, you could run diagnostic services ‘as normal’ by packing everyone into waiting rooms, and spread covid in the process; but when those patients catch covid (in addition to their medical problems they are getting diagnosed with), they go into hospital, taking up beds - which reduces capacity for (‘elective’ procedures - including cancer and other important procedures which impact on people’s length and quality of life). For many health services, keeping case numbers low using multiple different measures would be beneficial. Of course some of these restrictions will impact negatively on conditions and mental health - so not straightforward.

Sunshine - lockdown would mean implementing the masks and wfh anyway, is there that much downside to bringing the masks and wfh in early? At least if there is an impact, there is a chance we might not have to lockdown or reduce length and severity of lockdown. I think it would make a difference to my company’s policy if the govt recommended wfh.

Yes, there is a significant economic downside. If we ate going to cause damage it needs to be worth it. The idea that masks etc are "cost free" so "why not?" is misconceived.

I have on occasion written to my MP yes.

I am very happy to have an informed discussion on here as well.

This pandemic has shown me something interesting.

A fatalistic attitude is always conveniencing someone.

Bad news should be delivered by someone who doesn't find it convenient to believe it. Otherwise we run the risk of behaving in an inhuman way because it suits someone else, while believing it was the logical thing to do.

@herecomesthsun

I have on occasion written to my MP yes.

I am very happy to have an informed discussion on here as well.

Of course, that's fine. It's just you're not actually looking for anything to change apart from levels of promotion of current policy.

There won’t be another lockdown. We don’t even want to reintroduce a mask mandate in this country.

So there’s no validity to the argument ‘let’s bring in masks and wfh to avoid a lockdown’

How about lets strongly encourage use of masks and wfh to prevent a shedload of illness and deaths around Christmastime then?

What about people that can’t wfh?

It’s time for everyone to get on with their lives now. If you need to take extra precautions then do so.

Looks like some areas are peaking now.

The average age of a COVID death is actually more than the average British lifespan. Yes, because average lifespan includes all deaths from birth onwards. The “remaining expected lifespan” is more relevant - someone who has death until 80 still has an expected (ie average) lifespan of nearly a decade.

So it’s not surprising that a recent report calculated that the average loss of life expectancy of 10 years. Rather different from your suggestion that people dying from Covid were reaching life expectancy and were about to die anyway.

@Delatron

What about people that can’t wfh?

It’s time for everyone to get on with their lives now. If you need to take extra precautions then do so.

Looks like some areas are peaking now.

then don't wfh

we are still in a pandemic

looks like rates are quite high to me

@sunshinegirl82

Not sure on scotland but in wales, although masks are still required in reality there are far more people not bothering since England stopped Masks. Masks arent worn by people in cafe or pubs etc either. Alot of those still wearing them tend to have them on their chin.
Limited mask use in education

So i dont think masks are being used like they should so the spread is still high. Also their are many areas of wales which had a false sense of security due to being hardly impacted earlier in pandemic. Welsh residents at one time were limited in travel so less opportunity for cases to come into rural areas. Whereas now people can travel all over the UK easily and masks arent required when they go into England so more cases coming into rural wales now.

Yes @herecomesthsun as predicted they are. In fact they are not as high as was originally predicted considering we’ve removed all restrictions.

Sympathy for CEV doesn’t extend to people who can’t work from home and keep themselves shut away I see.

sorry, I don't understand the last bit.

I would hope that people who can and want to work from home would be able to work from home;

since you can't and presumably don't want to work from home (as you don't see the need), I wouldn't argue that you should be obliged to.

It doesn't mean I am not sympathetic to CEV people?

@MereDintofPandiculation

The average age of a COVID death is actually more than the average British lifespan. Yes, because average lifespan includes all deaths from birth onwards. The “remaining expected lifespan” is more relevant - someone who has death until 80 still has an expected (ie average) lifespan of nearly a decade.

So it’s not surprising that a recent report calculated that the average loss of life expectancy of 10 years. Rather different from your suggestion that people dying from Covid were reaching life expectancy and were about to die anyway.

How did they calculate it? Do you have link to study

www.health.org.uk/news-and-comment/news/1.5-million-potential-years-of-life-lost-to-covid-19

@herecomesthsun I asked what about people that can’t work from home? Your response was ‘then don’t work from home’ So it’s ok for them to be exposed but others to be protected? Bus drivers, NHS staff, shop workers. What if they want to work from home?

You have no idea about my job and what I do! So you can’t assume I ‘don’t see the need’

I work from home (but clients come to me, sounds dodgy, it’s not). I can’t do my job with any social distancing though.

Anyway it’s beside the point. I’m not talking about myself. I’m thinking of others.

The government appear to be sticking to plan A. And hoping for a natural peak soon (whilst ramping up the vaccinations) and then we should be through the worst. We can delay this by reimposing restrictions but I can’t see that happening right now.

Predictions were for 100,000 cases so they won’t impose restrictions for half that amount. It’s hard for people to get their heads around that after what has happened over the last 2 years I guess.

Well I am CEV and I have taken a break from work as I can't socially distance.

I am planning to get back in the New Year hopefully. I'm lucky to be able to do that.

However, the people who are able to work from home are helping the CEV because it is better for vulnerable if the rates are lower, because less risky.

Also, anyone wearing a mask is protecting CEV people.

We all protect each other by keeping rates low enough for healthcare to function as we all need access to hospitals.

And we all help each other by keeping rates down because lockdowns are bad for everyone (and another lockdown, in the worst case scenario, is in fact not an absolute impossibility)

And also,

and also, we help each other by keeping the economy open, because we need that too

I think we need to toe a middle line right now, as open as is safely possible