For those who want restrictions to return...

[Warhertisuff]

When would think it reasonable for those restrictions to be eased again?

Or do you believe restrictions should be a permanent, or at least cyclical, part of life now?

Earlier lockdowns can still have the rebound on the other side

Other countries did this and had smaller first wave and larger second - EE

@Namenic

Sunshinegirl82 - wfh and masks plus booster vaccines might make a difference. Even a small difference, when applied on a population level will end up having a large impact on total cases, admissions to hospital etc. Given the fragility of our health service, it’s certainly worth trying early as medical professionals have advised.

IF the govt had broken schools up and locked down earlier last year, it’s quite likely that there would have been a shorter lockdown, lower peak in cases - lower health, education and economic impact overall.

Scotland and Wales have retained masks and wfh throughout, cases in those countries are broadly the same as in England so those measures appear to be making very little difference. I struggle to understand why there is such a keenness to do things that, on their own, it's fairly clear have little to no real impact.

Booster shots are a pharmaceutical measure and I absolutely support administering those as quickly as the appropriate authorities consider it is appropriate to do so.

@TempsPerdu

I think there is a good argument for mitigations to return (and I do wear a mask), but I do wish that people would stop saying that masks and distancing etc really easy things that don’t make much of a difference to people’s lives. They really do make many activities very difficult, for many people, and they also stop many businesses being viable

Agree with this. For many people masks are not a minor imposition - they hamper communication, make normal everyday interactions extremely difficult and prevent them from enjoying social pleasures such as a theatre or cinema trip in the same way. Regardless of Covid rates I personally don’t want to live in a society where it becomes normalised for children never to see adults smile at them in a public place. Because where kids are concerned any long term/indefinite indoor mask mandate wouldn’t just constitute ‘popping one on to go to Waitrose’; it would mean masked baby groups and classes, schools, most extra-curricular activities, theatres… If that looked like being the case for my own child’s future I’d seek to move elsewhere if at all possible.

The embracing of masks as some sort of magic anti-Covid talisman has led to a situation where in the U.S. many toddlers spend the whole day masked in daycare settings and never see their care-giver’s face; where kindergarten students are mandated to wear masks while playing outside, and where high school students remain masked despite mostly being double vaxxed. There is no off-ramp for these kids. I’m grateful daily that my own family aren’t in the U.S. right now, but fear that any return of a mask mandate in the U.K. over winter would essentially remain a permanent or at least cyclical fixture.

It’s also notable that on threads like this you always get many posters casually saying that they’re willing to countenance the loss of pubs and nightclubs and a decimated hospitality industry, when the group most impacted by this (in terms of both quality of life and jobs) is once again the young. Throughout the pandemic it has seemed that some people are willing to throw any amount of hardship at the younger generations least affected by the virus in order to themselves feel that little bit safer.

No one has suggested masks on toddlers in the UK, you'll be pleased to know.

Also, another poster (not sure if it is on this thread) has commented on the resurgence of bars and cafes in their area. I think it will be a tough winter for everyone, and that is likely to include hospitality, but I'd be very surprised if there isn't a strong bounceback, as there will be an appetite for it (as BJ has said, possibly with a more mediterranean/ al fresco feel)

@Sunshinegirl82
Re masks, I guess we'll have to agree to differ, as you don't recognise the body of scientific evidence in favour of masks. It is still there though, and the consensus of scientific opinion still supports them.

The embracing of masks as some sort of magic anti-Covid talisman has led to a situation where in the U.S. many toddlers spend the whole day masked in daycare settings and never see their care-giver’s face; where kindergarten students are mandated to wear masks while playing outside, and where high school students remain masked despite mostly being double vaxxed. There is no off-ramp for these kids

There were literally people in another thread (Americans, presumably) defending this practice! It’s very hard to understand

There were literally people in another thread (Americans, presumably) defending this practice! It’s very hard to understand

It's crazily disproportionate, and as the earlier post said, there's no "off ramp" to this - presumably parts of the US are planning to bring a generation of children up who never see each other's faces from toddlerhood... and ultimately it's counterproductive as this kind of crap will only lead to a reaction. I wonder why the US is so polarised... It seems to be batshit at both extremes, from "my toddler must wear a mask in the playground" to "Covid is a giant Bill Gates conspiracy", with not so much in the middle (there almost certainly is a middle ground in the US but it gets drowned out by the crazies).

[quote herecomesthsun]@Sunshinegirl82
Re masks, I guess we'll have to agree to differ, as you don't recognise the body of scientific evidence in favour of masks. It is still there though, and the consensus of scientific opinion still supports them.[/quote]
I don't doubt it's there - as part of a package of measures, but on their own their value is very limited. If you want to lower case numbers you need more substantive restrictions.

You have said that all you really want is for there to be more encouragement for the public to follow the existing guidance. That's not a significant shift from where we are.

I was out and about today. My 4 year old wore a mask in all shops for the 5-10 mins we were in there. I probably wouldn't want her in school in masks all day - although she'd do it if she had a vulnerable teacher, for example. Because I teach her that sometimes we need to do things for other people. She sneezed at one point today - so it was good she was wearing a mask as the sneeze was nicely contained in her mask.

There were loads of people not wearing masks, most notably the demographic most likely to be hospitalised either with covid or something else. I find it weird. Do people not know what's happening with the NHS?

Also felt sorry for all the shopworkers - all of whom wearing masks the whole time they're working - having to serve people who won't even wear them for 5 mins as they order their coffee as a courtesy. It's not surprising they're having problems filling vacancies, I wouldn't work in a job where the customers totally ignore reasonable requests and show that level of disdain (most shops had signs saying please wear a mask if you can).

I think it's also pretty hard on people who are exempt because it's fairly clear that 50% of people aren't exempt and the genuinely exempt get lumped in with the simply inconsiderate.

@Sunshinegirl82 I agree with everything you say. And also @TempsPerdu. As a teacher my experience is that masks are detrimental to learning, but mask-wearing has become such a panacea for many people that they don't want to hear it.
I am not against mask wearing in specific settings that are high risk for spread of any illness - GP waiting rooms/ underground trains etc. But in children's settings in particular, impact vs benefit must be more carefully considered.

Marsha - multiple shorter early lockdowns with slow, measured release of restrictions would reduce rebound - I think would overall have lower economic, health and educational impact.

Sunshine - currently some parts of Scotland have less cases per capita than England. Due to different time lags (of residual immunity post-peak etc), you’d probably have to do some analysis for overall cases over a time period (adjusting for pop density, socio economic status). But the downside to your suggested strategy would be worse than the downside to mine. I mean, even if the measures make little difference, if cases keep increasing, we’d have to mask and wfh anyway - but with more additional measures. Upping things gradually MAY make a difference - not just physically, but signalling to public that they should behave more cautiously. This could reduce the likelihood of a lockdown or postpone it.

@Namenic

Marsha - multiple shorter early lockdowns with slow, measured release of restrictions would reduce rebound - I think would overall have lower economic, health and educational impact.

Sunshine - currently some parts of Scotland have less cases per capita than England. Due to different time lags (of residual immunity post-peak etc), you’d probably have to do some analysis for overall cases over a time period (adjusting for pop density, socio economic status). But the downside to your suggested strategy would be worse than the downside to mine. I mean, even if the measures make little difference, if cases keep increasing, we’d have to mask and wfh anyway - but with more additional measures. Upping things gradually MAY make a difference - not just physically, but signalling to public that they should behave more cautiously. This could reduce the likelihood of a lockdown or postpone it.

Only if your only measure of "downsides" is case related. Masks have an impact on the economy, people don't want to wear masks in schools/pubs/clubs/spas/restaurants/cinemas/theatres etc. These measures are not without cost and we need to be at least reasonably confident that the benefits outweigh the costs.

@Warhertisuff posts all the time on Covid? Why the assumption it's a journo?!

Marsha - multiple shorter early lockdowns with slow, measured release of restrictions would reduce rebound - I think would overall have lower economic, health and educational impact

I’m not sure as hard to gauge - did any country try this route? Most comparable countries to use had large waves plus lockdowns - eg Europe

If you’re talking about other systems / cultures, say Taiwan or Japan other variables would be there

Plus I always remember Chris Whitty saying you have to wait in the curve too early and you get fatigue

And actually I think the North is a good example of early on their curve, people were concerned timing matched SE and they did have a very long lockdown and fatigue

I find the timing thing interesting, up for debate, but I find it’s likely more complex than some narrative around it

@TheVampiresWife

This country has always been pathetically soft over face masks - I’d like to see a lot more signs like the one in a local pharmacy - ‘No mask, no entry.’ And those who are genuinely exempt, not those who just don’t like wearing them (who the hell ever does?) should IMO have to wear an officially issued lanyard

How utterly depressing that we're back to this again.

'No mask, no entry' indeed.

It is lovely isn't it? I've not been allowed to enter my local bakery for over a year, because even when restrictions were lifted they continued with no mask, no entry (no exemptions). I can stand at the door and tell them what I want but not actually look at what I might be buying. As a consequence my children haven't had cake from there, my non-exempt partner won't go in either as he's either with me or our children who didnt/don't wear masks (one is also exempt the other under 11)

@Justawaterformeplease

Also, we haven’t locked down since May 2020. We had some restrictions - no indoor dining etc in November - Jan, but I would much rather have the (relatively minor) inconvenience of wearing a mask indoors than lurching between lockdowns and “freedom.”

No lockdowns since May 2020? Did I imagine Jan - Mar 2021 then?

I don't think there should be any restrictions at all, nor any testing, nor any isolating. Enough is enough. I also don't think people should be asked to have boosters.

@makelovenotpetrol

I don't think there should be any restrictions at all, nor any testing, nor any isolating. Enough is enough. I also don't think people should be asked to have boosters.

"I don't want a lockdown, but I won't do anything to help stave off a lockdown"

Also, we haven’t locked down since May 2020. We had some restrictions - no indoor dining etc in November - Jan, but I would much rather have the (relatively minor) inconvenience of wearing a mask indoors than lurching between lockdowns and “freedom.

Well that's obviously not true!! And I'm guess you don't live in one of the areas that were placed in additional restrictions from July 2020.......

@PrincessNutNuts no that's not what I said.
I don't think we should do anything more about covid other than let it just become a part of life.

I think aus and nz do show that you can have quick shorter lockdowns. True, their population density is not the same; and they have had also long lockdowns (but they have had far fewer cases and deaths - they act on things more quickly). Personally I’d get less fatigue from shorter lockdowns (which cumulatively are less that a big lockdown required if cases get to a high level).

Ps - but I’d rather avoid a lockdown at all by bringing in comparatively less restrictive measures early like masks and wfh if possible.

@Namenic

I think aus and nz do show that you can have quick shorter lockdowns. True, their population density is not the same; and they have had also long lockdowns (but they have had far fewer cases and deaths - they act on things more quickly). Personally I’d get less fatigue from shorter lockdowns (which cumulatively are less that a big lockdown required if cases get to a high level).

It only works if you get to zero and with different borders it’s not comparable. You can’t have road freight bringing goods with drivers.

Otherwise you get very long lockdowns like Melbourne. Pretty much permanently here as we’d get a few cases a week.

@Sunshinegirl82

All the rhetoric has been around "freedom" and not around individuals taking responsibility.

Even if we don't have a crisis purely caused by covid but caused rather by a mixture of covid and RSV/ flu over winter, we may find ourselves in a position where stringent measures or possibly some sort of closure is happening later in the winter.

Promoting the "3Cs" more effectively now could reduce that if not stave it off altogether.

And it would give the schoolkids and their more vulnerable teachers
& parents more time to get vaccinations.

Marsha - the point is not so much that we can get it to zero, rather that acting early means that there is cumulatively less overall restrictions.

The reason Melbourne had a long lockdown is that their target cases (which is much lower than UK’s) is much lower than ours. Even if we say our target is now - 60,000, it’s be much more effective to act at that point than letting it get to 100,000 (when a longer lockdown would be needed to get bed occupancy down to a set level).

@Namenic

Marsha - the point is not so much that we can get it to zero, rather that acting early means that there is cumulatively less overall restrictions.

The reason Melbourne had a long lockdown is that their target cases (which is much lower than UK’s) is much lower than ours. Even if we say our target is now - 60,000, it’s be much more effective to act at that point than letting it get to 100,000 (when a longer lockdown would be needed to get bed occupancy down to a set level).

I don’t think you can say this for sure

Otherwise why would countries in EE see such a spike post early lockdown and the North see such high and maintained numbers after an early lockdown on their curve?

Also why would Chris Whitty talk about not too early and fatigue

But to get more context could you say how many lockdowns you envisage and how long they would be?