How many covid deaths per month is too many?

[PrincessNutNuts]

3000? 4000? 5000? 6000?

At what point would you begin to be uncomfortable with the body count caused by the government policy colloquially known as "living" with covid?

Boris Johnson has been reported as saying that unless 50,000 are going to die he's not changing course.

This number can be expressed as about 238 dead British people every day from September - March inclusive, or 137 deaths per day over a year. Or 416 per day from November - February inclusive.

Is another 50,000 on the covid death toll ok with you?

Or not?

Since 1st Janauary, in the UK, 64,727 people have died from Covid 19.

With. Not from.

I got a very snarky response (and accused of being a troll in fact) the other day when I pointed out that the impact of covid restrictions (lockdowns as well as ongoing mitigations) themselves have a greater impact on those in poverty, just as covid does from a health POV (both short and long term). That’s not to say that there may not be a balance between those two strands, and certainly a different government might have found better ways to support people in poverty through the restrictions. But even saying it - that “cases must be brought down at all costs!” usually doesn’t mean the burden of costs falling on the person calling for them - seems to be met with accusations of covid minimising/denial

But even saying it - that “cases must be brought down at all costs!” usually doesn’t mean the burden of costs falling on the person calling for them

Quite.

@ PrincessNutNuts Jesus I wish people would stop comparing to NZ. They have a smaller population by far in comparison. How long do you want a lock down for? What is it that you think should happen? This is likely to be around for a long time yet and we can't suspend life for the next few years. NZ have gone down then route of forcing it's healhcar staff to have the vaccination like it's the answer to everything. People still get it. It's shit but it's life.

"With. Not from"

Not true at all. 68k have covid listed on the death certificate.

I mean, of course there's going to be excess deaths when you've been through a pandemic.
It's just inconceivable to think there wouldn't be.

So I'm not "happy" about people dying but it is inevitable.

@walksen

"With. Not from"

Not true at all. 68k have covid listed on the death certificate.

Yes because covid has to be listed as cause of death if someone dies within 28 days of having a positive covid test. This is an unprecedented way to record deaths and was only brought in by the WHO at the start of this Pandemic. Death with covid has been classed as death from covid.

If you die a couple of days after being in a road traffic accident and you test positive in hospital for covid your death cert will state cause of death as covid. For me, this completely makes no sense and I have no confidence in the recorded covid death rates because of this.

@walksen

"With. Not from"

Not true at all. 68k have covid listed on the death certificate.

My best friend's mother has covid listed on her death certificate. She never once tested positive for it.

I think we're going to have to accept the same levels as with flu for a bit. It's awful but I don't know what else we can do.

My best friend's mother has covid listed on her death certificate. She never once tested positive for it.

After all this time it still feels difficult to get what is going on with this

Maybe it just has to be excess deaths as most useful

I'm confused why there's no middle ground. It doesn't have to be complete lockdown or no restrictions whatsoever. It doesn't have to be like here or like NZ. Why can't we be like most of Europe where there is still mask wearing and covid passes - especially for big events? Then maybe instead of 40 thousand cases and 200 deaths we'd be on 5000 cases and 50 deaths like France or 2000 cases and 20 deaths like Spain or 3000 cases and 50 deaths like Italy.

@Tal45

I'm confused why there's no middle ground. It doesn't have to be complete lockdown or no restrictions whatsoever. It doesn't have to be like here or like NZ. Why can't we be like most of Europe where there is still mask wearing and covid passes - especially for big events? Then maybe instead of 40 thousand cases and 200 deaths we'd be on 5000 cases and 50 deaths like France or 2000 cases and 20 deaths like Spain or 3000 cases and 50 deaths like Italy.

Scotland has these sorts of restrictions and rates are still very high there regardless.

The single most useful thing - more useful than masks, maybe even more useful than vaccines in terms of spread because as we all know, vaccines don't stop you catching or spreading covid - would be to ensure that anyone who needed to isolate while awaiting test results or after testing positive was properly financially supported. If there was no fear of being unable to pay for food and rent, more people would be likely to test if they had symptoms.

Also, a properly reliable home test which gives definitive results in half an hour, so people don't have to lose income for several days (bearing in mind those on low incomes often don't drive, so can't access quicker drive through tests).

While I agree that we can't go on testing every sniffle forever, in terms of winter when the pressure on the NHS is greatest (not just this winter, but going forward if needs be) I really do think this would be a sensible approach.

My best friend's mother has covid listed on her death certificate. She never once tested positive for it.

A friend of a friend's grandad died of flu. Never once tested positive for it though. No one ever said he died with flu not of it nor questioned his death being included in the stats either.

Mostly people are happy to accept a doctor's opinion when it comes to diagnosing causes, except for covid when some random on the internet is more knowledgeable apparently.

@walksen

My best friend's mother has covid listed on her death certificate. She never once tested positive for it.

A friend of a friend's grandad died of flu. Never once tested positive for it though. No one ever said he died with flu not of it nor questioned his death being included in the stats either.

Mostly people are happy to accept a doctor's opinion when it comes to diagnosing causes, except for covid when some random on the internet is more knowledgeable apparently.

Do you agree that covid should be listed on a death cert as cause of death regardless of how or why that person actually died?

"Do you agree that covid should be listed on a death cert as cause of death regardless of how or why that person actually died"

I'm not a doctor so whether I agree or not is irrelevant. The people trained to ascertain causes and aware of when it should be listed chose to do so.

Do you agree it is arrogant in the extreme for random on an internet forum to imply otherwise?

@walksen

"Do you agree that covid should be listed on a death cert as cause of death regardless of how or why that person actually died"

I'm not a doctor so whether I agree or not is irrelevant. The people trained to ascertain causes and aware of when it should be listed chose to do so.

Do you agree it is arrogant in the extreme for random on an internet forum to imply otherwise?

No I don't actually. It is not necessary for me to be a doctor to hold a view that it is inaccurate to list someone as a covid death when in fact they died due to injuries sustained in a road traffic accident. If you don't feel qualified to have an opinion on that then I don't really care.

"they died due to injuries sustained in a road traffic accident"

I guess you must have been the coroner doing the post mortem then if you were able to determine the injuries sustained and cause of death. Probably shouldn't have put covid on the death certificate then, huh?

My best friend's mother has covid listed on her death certificate. She never once tested positive for it.

Yes, and? Huge numbers of people are listed as dying of things without tests. Doctors are able to ascertain from symptoms.

This thread is veering into conspiracy theory territory.

From my own personal experience...

My Aunt was seriously breathless one day last November, and went downhill rapidly. My uncle went to pick up a chinese takeaway. When he got back, she was taking her last breath. The Paramedics said it was likely Covid. He would not allow them / doctor who attended to put it on her Death Cert.

My Great Aunt was in a care home, but in overall good health. In June 2020 she became ill and was bed bound. Very breathless. Died within a week. Doctor who attended suggested it may have been Covid. Relatives would not entertain this (I said at the time, it was as if some people viewed it as AIDS)

Great Grandmother died suddenly in July 2020. No mention of Covid. Fair enough she had been going rapidly downhill since dementia diagnosis a year or two before.

Next door neighbour. Had Pneumonia in Feb 2020. Eventually got sent home in March 2020, a week later she was admitted to hospital and died within 48 hrs. Covid was on the Death Cert. She was 90. Was its Covid that she actually died from?

My Uncle is in a care home. He is being looked after by people in their 20s who mostly haven't been vaccinated. His carer said to him 2 weeks ago "I don't feel well, I'm going home I think you should have a Covid test" Carer did have Covid and seemingly passed it on to my uncle who became very poorly and is now in hospital.

My cousin is 24 and works in a care home. Won't take the vaccine. Has now got Covid and been in bed poorly for 2 weeks.

My best friend is a Policeman. Got Covid in April this year. Still off sick with Long Covid.

My 9 year old daughter scared the life out of me in July this year when she came down with Coviid (Lateral flow showed positive in seconds, PCR confirmed) thankfully she was on the mend in days.

Local Lolliop lady's husband took poorly with classic Covid symptoms in December 2020. Was in ICU for 2 weeks then died.

48 year old school friend was one of the first taken away in an ambulance in the early days with Covif symptoms. Absolutely no underlying health conditions. Died of Covid a week later.

I don't, however know of anyone who has been hit by a bus who's death has been recorded as Covid, because of testing positive in the last 28 days.

Doctors can be struck off for falsifying death certificates. There is no way they'd do it randomly, they're risking their job, their livelihood - why? Why would they do that? It's not like there's a dearth of real covid deaths.

Totally bonkers to think this is happening.

Thought this was interesting re: misunderstandings around covid death rates

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n352

@RichTeaRichTea

I got a very snarky response (and accused of being a troll in fact) the other day when I pointed out that the impact of covid restrictions (lockdowns as well as ongoing mitigations) themselves have a greater impact on those in poverty, just as covid does from a health POV (both short and long term). That’s not to say that there may not be a balance between those two strands, and certainly a different government might have found better ways to support people in poverty through the restrictions. But even saying it - that “cases must be brought down at all costs!” usually doesn’t mean the burden of costs falling on the person calling for them - seems to be met with accusations of covid minimising/denial

I wonder if these two sometimes go hand in hand. The poorer are less likely to get decent sick pay so will be more affected by lockdowns and being in such a job probably isn’t wfh so they’re more affected by Covid too.

.. didn’t really fully explain… less likely to get sick pay, less job security and so on. I’m sure you got my point.