[quote abricotine]Here’s one; there are others. Google is your friend! www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1280583[/quote]
Interesting. Thanks! But the article doesn't include a link to the study. If it's this one (www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1), this bit somehow failed to make it into media reports:
Transmission reductions declined over time since second vaccination, for Delta reaching similar levels to unvaccinated individuals by 12 weeks
So, no difference in transmission 12+ weeks post-vaccination. And just from eyeballing the graphs, the difference didn't look huge before the 12-week mark, either. It was bigger for alpha than delta, but pretty underwhelming on that score either way.
The problem with this methodology is that people who choose to get vaccinated tend to behave differently than people who choose not to. Their close contacts also tend to behave differently - for example, they're more likely to be vaccinated themselves, or to wear masks. And for this sort of study, the vaccinated sample would be nearly 100% those who've freely chosen to be vaccinated, because there isn't time for job mandates to have had much of an effect on the data sample.
If you take someone who's deadset against vaccination and somehow force or ultimatum them into doing it, their other behaviors aren't going to change. They'll still be less likely to take other precautions. They'll still be more likely to have close contacts that aren't vaccinated. And they and their contacts will still be more likely to do things that risk exposure to covid. A comparison of the two groups that doesn't account for those differing behaviors isn't valid for drawing conclusions about what will happen if an unwilling person is coerced into getting vaccinated.
This narrative that transmissions will plummet if only everyone gets vaccinated is just a fantasy that isn't supported by science.